Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 227K, down from a near-term high of 250K four weeks ago, marking the lowest level since May 17th [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.965 million from a revised 1.955 million, the highest since November 2021, with four of the past five weeks above 1.95 million [3][4] Company Earnings - Delta Air Lines reported Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, beating expectations by 9 cents, with revenues of $16.6 billion, slightly above the expected $16.01 billion [5][6] - Delta raised its earnings guidance for Q3 to a range of $1.25-1.75 per share and for the full fiscal year to $5.25-6.25 per share, exceeding analysts' projections [6] - Conagra missed fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, reporting 56 cents per share against the expected 59 cents, with revenues of $2.78 billion below the anticipated $2.84 billion, leading to an 8% drop in shares [6]

I think we're seeing a US economy that is deteriorating. I think of it as different sickly canaries that are appearing in the coal mine. They're not dead yet necessarily, but they're showing signs of real illness and we're likely to see more, I think, as the year progresses.First of all, consumer confidence has taken a hit. What we're seeing also is just signs of reduced consumption. We're seeing a pickup in continuing jobless claims.Uh we're at the highest level since November of 2021. So, all this says to ...

A lot of numbers to go through here. 147,000 jobs created, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is above the 106 estimate that we got from Bloomberg Economics and the economists. We surveyed private payrolls up 74,000.Let's take a look here at the unemployment rate. It falls to 4.1%. There was some thought it was going to go maybe as high as four four.The forecast was four for three. So much better number than anticipated. We also see and I'm going to jump here to jobless claims, a big drop in ...

U.S. equities gained at midday as the government reported fewer initial jobless claims than had been expected. https://t.co/lFRpjrLv8P ...

Economic Indicators - Preliminary durable goods orders surged by 164% [2] - Trade balance deficit reached minus 966 billion [1] - Capital good orders non-defense xir increased by 17% [3] - Shipments rose by 05% [4] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 236000, the lowest since mid-year [7] - Continuing claims remained over 1974 million for five consecutive weeks [7][8] GDP and Consumption - First quarter GDP revised to minus 05%, the weakest since Q1 2022 [4][5] - Consumption dropped to 05% from 12% [6] Inflation - Price index increased to 38%, one-tenth higher than 37% [6] - PCE core moved to 35%, one-tenth higher than 34% [6]

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Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].

Jobless claims and housing uh starts data going to hit the wires right now in about two seconds. Rick Santelli standing by at this in CM in Chicago. Hey Rick.Hi. Good morning Joe. Yes.Housing starts for the month of May expected 1,350,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units. Comes in light, extremely light. 1,256,000.That is definitely well below what we are expecting. And that would be the lightest going back well quite a ways. We're going back to wow 1256. We're going all the way back to May of 2020. May ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 228K, slightly below the estimated 230K, marking a decrease of 13K from the previous week's revised figure of 241K, indicating stability in the labor market [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million, consistent with trends over the past six months, although the previous week reported 1.916 million, the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021 [3][4] - Q1 U.S. Productivity showed a negative growth of -0.8%, which was 10 basis points lower than expected, following a +1.5% in Q4 2024, marking the first negative print since Q2 2022 [5] - Unit Labor Costs increased by 5.7%, exceeding the expected 5.1%, the highest level since Q3 2020, indicating potential economic challenges [6] Company Earnings - Shopify (SHOP) reported Q1 earnings of 25 cents per share, missing consensus by a penny, while revenues of $2.36 billion exceeded expectations by 1.32%, but shares fell by 7% [7] - ConocoPhillips (COP) surpassed earnings estimates with $2.09 per share, exceeding consensus by 3 cents, and reported revenues of $17.1 billion, outperforming by 3.37% compared to the previous year [8] - Crocs (CROX) reported earnings of $3.00 per share, beating expectations by 19.5%, and revenues of $937.3 million, slightly below year-ago levels, with shares up 4.7% in pre-market trading [9]