Core Insights - The share of below-3% mortgages has declined to 20.4% in Q2, the smallest since Q2 2021, indicating a slow exit from the "lock-in effect" for homeowners and investors [1][8] - The share of 3%-3.99% mortgages decreased by 30 basis points to 32.1%, the lowest since Q3 2019, reflecting a broader trend of rising mortgage rates [1][8] - The overall mortgage landscape is characterized by a significant decline in ultra-low-rate mortgages, with the share of 4.0%-4.99% mortgages dropping to 17.9%, the lowest since 2013 [8][11] Mortgage Rate Trends - The ultra-low mortgage rates that emerged in early 2020 led to a surge in refinancing, with 65% of all mortgages outstanding having rates of 3.99% or below by Q1 2022 [2][5] - The share of mortgages with rates of 6% or higher rose to 19.7% in Q2, the highest since Q4 2015, as home sales and refinancing activities have significantly declined [11][12] - The share of mortgages in the 5.0%-5.99% range has remained stable at around 9.9% in Q2, indicating a balance between new originations and payoffs [12][13] Economic Context - The ultra-low-rate mortgages were a result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, which began in 2009 and intensified in 2020, leading to historically low mortgage rates [15][16] - The Fed has since initiated quantitative tightening (QT), shedding $2.36 trillion in assets to address the inflation and housing market distortions caused by previous policies [16][18] - The period of negative "real" mortgage rates, where mortgage rates were below inflation, peaked with rates below 3% and CPI inflation exceeding 7%, creating unsustainable conditions in the housing market [18]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that money markets are currently well-supplied with liquidity, and the central bank has tools to manage temporary disruptions, suggesting that some volatility in money market rates is normal and healthy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Julie Remache, a key official, states that reserves remain abundant, implying no immediate need to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) process [2]. - The upcoming quarter-end is typically associated with increased volatility in money markets, which may be exacerbated by the Fed's actions [3]. - The Fed's bond holdings have decreased from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.7 trillion as part of its strategy to reduce excess liquidity introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Repo Rates - The contraction of liquidity has primarily removed excess cash that was not needed in the markets, with the overnight reverse repo facility shrinking from $2.6 trillion at the end of 2022 to negligible levels [5]. - As QT progresses, it will begin to reduce steady levels of reserves, increasing the potential for unexpected market pressures [5]. - Market participants are anticipating significant activity in Fed liquidity facilities, with estimates of up to $300 billion in reverse repo inflows as they seek short-term cash parking solutions [6]. Group 3: Standing Repo Facility (SRF) - The Standing Repo Facility (SRF), established in 2021, is designed to provide cash loans in exchange for bonds, acting as a short-term buffer for liquidity shortages [7]. - The SRF allows the Fed to monitor longer-term trends while continuing with QT, reducing the need for direct market interventions to manage liquidity [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's liquidity facilities are expected to experience significant activity as the month closes, impacting the central bank's balance sheet reduction process [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity Facilities - The Fed's reserve repo facility and the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are anticipated to see major inflows due to month- and quarter-end volatility, amidst ongoing balance sheet reductions that are limiting liquidity [2][3]. - Analysts from Wrightson ICAP project that the reverse repo facility could increase from negligible usage to as high as $275 billion by the end of the month [3]. - The SRF is expected to see inflows of around $50 billion by September 30, significantly higher than the $11 billion recorded on June 30 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Accurately assessing market liquidity at quarter-end is challenging due to transient factors affecting money flow, which are often reversed at the start of a new quarter [5]. - The performance of the Fed's tools is crucial for maintaining control over short-term interest rate targets, which is influenced by the management of its cash and asset holdings [6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed is anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points following its upcoming policy meeting, with a policy statement and economic projections to be released [7]. - Since 2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet, which had expanded to approximately $9 trillion during the pandemic, as part of efforts to normalize market liquidity [8].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market's reaction to Federal Reserve actions is critical, with inflation trends being a more significant driver of bond yields than Fed rate cuts [3][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts are largely anticipated by the market, but the actual impact on borrowing costs, such as mortgage rates, remains uncertain [2][4]. - The Fed's balance sheet management, including quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), is crucial for influencing long-term bond yields [9][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation remains a key concern, with current rates around 3% and showing signs of increasing, which complicates the economic landscape and poses risks of stagflation [3][7]. - The bond market is experiencing hesitancy in longer-term investments due to inflation expectations and significant fiscal deficits in various countries [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a possibility of a bond market rally following Fed rate cuts, but it may not be sufficient to lower mortgage rates below 6% [8]. - The dynamics of supply and demand for bonds, particularly longer-term bonds, are influenced by investor confidence and the Fed's actions regarding its bond holdings [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing criticism of the Bank of England's approach to managing interest on reserves and the implications of quantitative easing (QE) on public finances, highlighting the urgent need for reform in light of rising government borrowing costs and losses incurred by the Bank. Group 1: Criticism of Current Policies - Louise Haigh calls for a more strategic unwind of QE and criticizes the excessive cash given to commercial banks at taxpayers' expense [1] - Richard Tice highlights that the current approach is leading to tens of billions in losses and urges the Bank to stop selling bonds and reduce interest payments to banks [2][5] - The Bank of England's profits have diminished significantly, with forecasts indicating a potential loss exceeding £130 billion by 2033 [2][3] Group 2: Financial Implications of QE - The QE scheme has created £895 billion in electronic money, leading to annual costs exceeding £20 billion, which is viewed as a catastrophic expense during fiscal constraints [4] - The Treasury is now required to refund the Bank, which initially profited over £120 billion from QE but is now facing substantial losses due to higher interest rates and lower bond prices [3][4] - The current fiscal situation necessitates a reevaluation of the Bank's policies to alleviate pressure on government borrowing costs [8][15] Group 3: Calls for Coordination and Reform - There is a coalition of voices from various political factions urging the Bank to adjust its policies to mitigate financial strain on the government [5][8] - David Aikman suggests that the Treasury and the Bank should coordinate to limit the costs of quantitative tightening (QT) on public finances [14][16] - Proposals include ceasing bond sales and potentially imposing a tax on income from the Bank to generate additional revenue for the government [19][22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Decisions - The Bank is expected to make decisions regarding the pace of QT, with predictions of slowing down active sales to avoid market disruptions [20][21] - Analysts are working on estimates to counter claims that QE has become a financial burden, emphasizing the long-term benefits of lower debt issuance costs [12][18] - The Chancellor's upcoming letter to the Bank may not lead to significant changes in monetary policy, as the MPC retains operational independence [13][23]

Macroeconomic Factors - Expectation of 3 or more Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Federal Reserve is anticipated to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program [2] - Treasury is expected to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) through bond buying [2] Crypto Market Liquidity - Stablecoin liquidity is projected to exceed $300 billion [2] - Money-market funds hold $7.4 trillion [2] Regulatory and Product Approvals - Anticipation of Clarity Act approval [2] - Expectation of over 90 crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) approvals [2] - Potential approval of ETH ETF staking [2]

Massive rate cuts are comingQT will end soonTrillions will flow into cryptoWe will print hard in Q4 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Long-term interest rates have risen or remained elevated in many countries, with China being a notable exception where rates have fallen to a historic low of 1.6% [3][38] - The rise in long-term rates in Japan, the US, and Europe is attributed to a combination of factors, including the shift from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and persistent private-sector financial surpluses [13][17] - The report highlights that the current economic conditions in China resemble Japan's post-bubble period, indicating a balance sheet recession where the private sector is focused on deleveraging rather than borrowing [43][76] Summary by Sections Long-term Interest Rates - Long-term interest rates in Japan and the US have reached their highest levels in over a decade, while China's rates have declined significantly [2][3] - The increase in long-term rates is seen as an inevitable consequence of the transition from QE to QT, which has led to a tightening of monetary policy [16][15] Balance Sheet Recession - The report discusses the concept of a balance sheet recession, where the private sector focuses on saving and debt repayment, leading to a lack of borrowing and spending [10][44] - In Japan, the balance sheet recession began after the asset bubble burst in 1990, while in the US and Europe, it started in 2008 [4][49] Private Sector Financial Surplus - The private sector in Japan, the US, and Europe continues to run financial surpluses, which have remained stable even after 2022 [17][24] - The latest data shows the US private-sector financial surplus at 7.31% of GDP, while the eurozone's surplus stands at 6.35% of GDP [23][24] China's Economic Situation - China's current long-term interest rates signal a need for additional fiscal stimulus, as the economy is in a balance sheet recession similar to Japan's in the 1990s [45][43] - The report suggests that the Chinese government should focus on public works projects to effectively utilize excess savings and stimulate the economy [46][59] Structural Reforms vs. Fiscal Stimulus - The report emphasizes that structural reforms alone are insufficient to address the current economic slump in China, which is primarily driven by balance sheet issues [78][79] - It argues for a shift towards fiscal stimulus measures, as seen in the US's response to the 2008 financial crisis, to effectively combat the recession [87][88]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. equity market**, specifically the **S&P 500 index** and its performance in light of upcoming **tariff announcements** and **Federal Reserve policies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Policy Changes**: - The U.S. is expected to announce reciprocal tariff increases on April 2nd, with a potential rise in the effective tariff rate by **10 percentage points (pp)** to **13%**, the highest since 1938 [2][11][19]. - Each **5 pp** increase in the effective tariff rate could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by approximately **1-2%** [19]. 2. **Quantitative Tightening (QT) Adjustments**: - The Federal Reserve will slow its balance sheet runoff by **$20 billion** per month starting in April, with expectations for QT to conclude by the end of **3Q 2025** [20][24]. - The nominal **10-year U.S. Treasury yield** is projected to remain around **4.35%** by year-end [29]. 3. **Market Performance Outlook**: - The S&P 500 index is forecasted to be flat over the next three months but expected to rise by **11%** by year-end as economic growth and earnings continue [2][37]. - The S&P 500 is currently **9%** below its February record high and down **5%** year-to-date [3]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: - The U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has dropped to **-1.2**, the lowest since April 2023, indicating a bearish outlook among investors [3][8]. 5. **Sector Performance**: - Long-duration equities, particularly in the tech sector, have underperformed during recent market sell-offs, while "bond proxies" like Real Estate have outperformed [30][32]. 6. **Economic Policy Uncertainty**: - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged, reflecting increased volatility in the equity market due to tariff policy uncertainties [11][14]. 7. **Earnings Growth Projections**: - The baseline forecast for S&P 500 EPS growth in **2025** is **7%**, contingent on the anticipated tariff increases [19][47]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sensitivity to Growth Expectations**: - The relationship between S&P 500 returns and economic growth expectations has strengthened, indicating that adjustments to growth outlooks will be more impactful than changes in yields for near-term equity performance [2][38]. 2. **Correlation Between Stocks and Bond Yields**: - There is a positive correlation between stock performance and bond yields, suggesting that favorable economic news may lead to higher stock prices even if it results in increased bond yields [39][42]. 3. **Rebalancing of Investment Baskets**: - The report includes a rebalancing of long and short duration equity baskets, indicating strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [31][46]. 4. **Impact of Employment Reports**: - Upcoming employment reports are highlighted as critical indicators for equity investors, with expectations of job gains decreasing from **151K** to **138K** [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the U.S. equity market, particularly in relation to tariff policies and Federal Reserve actions.