Corporate Bankruptcy Trends - Corporate bankruptcies in 2025 have reached the highest level since 2010, following the Great Financial Crisis [1][3] - As of July 2025, there have been 446 large corporate bankruptcies, defined as public companies with at least $2 million in debt or private companies with at least $10 million in assets or liabilities [1][3] - The increase in bankruptcies is linked to the rate hike cycle in 2022 and 2023 [3] Contributing Factors to Bankruptcies - Artificially suppressed interest rates at zero for an extended period allowed companies to raise excessive capital, delaying inevitable bankruptcies [6][7] - The lack of "creative destruction" in American company formation since the GFC has led to a backlog of companies that should have failed [9][10] - Relaxed constraints on M&A activity may lead to more aggressive acquisitions of assets from floundering businesses, contributing to bankruptcies [12][13] - Increased competition from unexpected companies is putting pressure on various business categories [14] Retail Sector Vulnerability - Retail businesses with physical locations are particularly vulnerable due to the leverage associated with long-term leases, which are akin to debt [18][19] - Macro trends of declining foot traffic to physical locations, influenced by companies like Amazon and Shein, exacerbate the challenges for retailers [18] Commercial Real Estate Debt Crisis - Approximately $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate (CRE) debt is maturing before 2028, posing refinancing challenges [24] - Higher interest rates and declining real estate valuations are making it difficult for developers to refinance debt, potentially leading to foreclosures [26][27] - Banks are hesitant to foreclose on commercial real estate due to the negative impact on their balance sheets, leading to restructuring efforts [24] - Traditional office construction is facing headwinds as financing flows shift towards data centers, further straining the commercial real estate sector [30]

Meanwhile, let's stick with the Fed and the path forward for rate cuts following ADP this morning showed a dramatic slowdown in private sector hiring during the month of August. Joining us here at Post9 this morning is UBS Global Wealth Senior Portfolio Manager Alan Rexoff. And Alan, welcome back.Good to have you. >> Carl, it's great to be here. Hi.>> Were you were you unnerved by ADP. >> Uh, you know, I think what you're seeing is that there is a focus now on employment and because of that, you're seeing 9 ...

Interest Rate Drivers - Global interest rates are primarily determined by the balance between saving and investment, not solely by central banks' inflation stabilization efforts [1] - Increased saving tends to push interest rates down, while increased investment pushes them up [1] - Structural forces have shaped interest rates over the past 50 years [1] Factors Influencing Interest Rates - Slowing productivity growth, due to diminishing returns from the ICT revolution, has exerted downward pressure on interest rates over the past 30 years [2] - Demographic shifts, specifically the baby boomers' transition from saving to drawing down on savings during retirement, impact interest rates [2][3] Potential Future Shifts - AI's transformative impact on work and technology could potentially drive interest rates upward in the future [3] - The baby boomers demographic shift could also contribute to rising interest rates [3] Market Focus - The market is closely watching a sell-off in long-dated bonds in developed countries [4] - An upcoming auction of 30-year government bonds in Japan is of particular interest [4]

As for the broader market, uh, Dow settled into the red early this morning. Bob Doll is with us. Crossmart global CEO and CIO.Bob, it's good to have you. Thanks for joining us in advance of the number tomorrow. We know this is I mean, we always say the jobs number is one of the most important ever, but this could actually determine the the trajectory of rates in the medium term, wouldn't you say.Totally agree. You guys just covered the job situation very well. Look, the Jackson Hole speech was a pivot.it wa ...

The ADP report lined up the estimate in our survey, 68 K the previous number one over four with the number this morning. As Mike mccarthy good morning, mike. The morning john i'm looking right now at the number it's 54,050 4000 jobs according to adp comes in lower than the forecast you just mentioned of 68,000 and certainly down from a revised 106,000 last month.So this is not good news for the markets and it is something that was foreshadowed by Governor Chris Waller, who noted that the Fed buys data from ...

BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 97.6% 🔥 https://t.co/aynpLl54K7 ...

Market Performance & Outlook - The market has experienced a significant rally of approximately 30% since the April lows [1][2] - The industry anticipates market consolidation in the coming month, influenced by seasonality and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve and the potential impact of AI on the labor force [5][6] - The industry expects to end the year higher, despite anticipating a period of consolidation [18] - The industry views that it's reasonable to expect the market to be up a couple of percentage points by the end of this year from current levels [19] Earnings & Growth - The industry expects high single-digit earnings growth for the full year 2025 and believes it's reasonable to expect similar numbers in 2026, even with a potential economic slowdown [7] - The industry's stock market return depends on multiple expansion, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions [9] Interest Rates & Federal Reserve Policy - The industry anticipates a rate cut in September, with December being more likely than October [8] - The industry believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause and evaluate data, leading to macro volatility over the next 6 months [9] - The industry believes that expecting a rate cut at every meeting until mid-2026 may be unrealistic [9] Tariffs & Market Sentiment - The market is seeking certainty regarding tariffs, whether the original tariffs announced in April or a future version, to incorporate them into models [13] - The industry believes that the panic surrounding tariffs has subsided, and analysts are revising estimates upward, fading the worst-case scenarios [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current uncertainty surrounding interest rates and the potential impact of tariffs on consumers, indicating that certain sectors are at higher risk due to these factors [1] - The author emphasizes a focus on dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, Business Development Companies (BDCs), and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) as a strategy for retirement income [1] - There is an aspiration to assist lower and middle-class workers in building investment portfolios that consist of high-quality, dividend-paying companies to achieve financial independence [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to rise due to increasing global tensions and geopolitical conflicts, particularly related to the Ukraine situation [4][8][19] - Countries are accumulating gold as a strategic asset for potential military conflicts, indicating a shift in geopolitical dynamics [6][9][12] - The demand for gold is driven by large-scale purchases from governments, which cannot be easily manipulated by market forces, leading to a sustained increase in prices [11][12][20] Group 2 - The production ratios of precious metals indicate potential price movements, with silver being produced at a significantly higher rate than gold, suggesting a possible future price adjustment [23][24][25] - The conversation around interest rates and central bank policies is crucial, as lower interest rates could lead to increased liquidity and inflation, further impacting precious metal prices [28][34][36] - The current economic environment is characterized by volatility and unpredictability, which could create both opportunities and risks for investors in precious metals [42][44][45]

BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 97.6% 🔥 https://t.co/XaJuKT2zZb ...