As you've been discussing September, starting with volatility, we're looking at ways to spread risk through ETFs. I'm Leslie Picker in for Dominic 2. Joining me now is Brian Vancronhite, senior portfol portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.Brian, thank you for being here. Let's just go ahead and set the macro stage. You are not convinced the Fed is a lock to cut rates this month.>> Yeah, that's correct. The Fed has 90% probabilities that they're going to cut this month, and they probably do. Tha ...

Market Trends & Borrowing Costs - Borrowing costs are up, reaching levels unseen in decades, especially for long-term bonds, impacting investors and governments globally [1] - Investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-term bonds due to persistent inflation and significant budget deficits [2] - Yields on 30-year treasuries are nearing 5%, a level last seen in July, while UK 30-year rates have reached levels last seen in 1998 [3] Government Debt & Fiscal Policy - Governments worldwide accumulated substantial cheap debt following the 2008 global financial crisis and further increased borrowing to address COVID-19 lockdowns and related recessions [4] - Increased inflation and interest rates since the pandemic have made such large-scale borrowing unsustainable [5] - Concerns exist that persistently high bond yields and governments' failure to manage their finances could lead to escalating debt servicing costs [5] Structural Forces - Structural factors, including demographics and geopolitical tensions, are contributing to the rise in borrowing costs [2] - The longer the maturity of a bond, the greater the potential for adverse events, leading investors to demand higher compensation [4]

Meanwhile, Jolt job openings coming in lower than estimates, just below 7.2% million versus 7.4% million expected. Joining us to discuss is Joe Leavia, counselor to the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. It's good to have you, Joe.Welcome back. >> Thank you. Thank you, Sarah.>> So, is this just more evidence that labor market is is cooling. It's cooling a little bit sour, but if you look at the current rate, it's exactly where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019 when the Trump economy generated nearly three ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 September rate cut odds spike to 98%. https://t.co/UftW6AsRS9 ...

Interest Rates - Savings accounts for kids are offering rates up to 10.38% [1] Availability - Information on how these offers work and where they're available can be found at the provided link [1]

We think that investors should really be focused on where the cutting trough in this cycle is. That's still around 3%. The Fed thinks 3% is neutral.The market seems to believe that that's credible and that the Fed will head there. Increasingly, at least for our rate strategy team, we see 3% as almost a cutting ceiling. They're going to at least cut to there, we think.And we think that the market is not fully appreciating the potential range of outcomes below 3% that the Fed could take us to. And that range ...

Let's get to Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Mike, what's the data showing us. Well, the JOLTS numbers come in a little bit lower than anticipated, which I suppose is good news in a way.It suggests maybe the unemployment rate isn't going to move as much 7,181,000 jobs openings. Now, this is for the month of July, not for the month of August. Friday, we get the August payrolls report last month, which would have been June four, JOLTS 7,437,000.So we have seen a decline, but it's still a fairly strong rate. This w ...

Market Analysis & Investment Strategies - The market suggests that catching a falling knife (investing in a rapidly declining stock) is risky and requires patience, waiting for signs of stability rather than reacting impulsively to price drops [1] - The market emphasizes that a stock's cheapness alone doesn't make it a bargain; understanding the underlying reasons for the decline (earnings collapse, business model issues, etc) is crucial [1] - The market indicates that savvy investors wait for confirmation of a turnaround, such as a reset in earnings or technical stability, before investing in a distressed stock [1] Economic Trends & Fed Policy - The discussion suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is overly focused on lagging indicators like tariffs and consumer prices, potentially missing the impact of AI on energy demand and the labor market [1] - The analysis points out that the utility sector's strong performance is linked to increased energy demand from AI, highlighting an overlooked driver of inflation [1] - The speaker suggests that the Fed's focus on inflation may lead to missed opportunities to lower interest rates and stimulate business lending for job creation [2] - The speaker believes that the availability of credit is a more significant issue than the cost of credit in slowing down economic growth [2] - The speaker suggests that a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is insignificant and that a cut of 75 basis points to a full point is needed to have a real impact [2] - The speaker believes that the Fed should cut rates by 75 basis points immediately, followed by another 50 basis points, to address the slowing economy [2][3] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is divided into existing homes and new homes, with national home builders keeping prices stable by building smaller houses [3] - The speaker believes that existing home prices are inflated due to sellers and realtors being unrealistic about market clearing prices [3] - The speaker suggests that realtors should price homes based on comparable sales to create bidding wars and achieve optimal prices [3]

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller. Hi, Steve.>> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now. Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

🇺🇸 FED WALLER SAID ON CNBC- TARIFFS AREN'T GOING TO CAUSE LONG-RUN INFLATION- I DON’T SEE RECESSION, BUT A SLOWER GROWTH- TARRIF INFLATION WONT BE PERMANENT- SHOULD CUT RATES AT NEXT MEETINGBULLISH FOR THE MARKETS 🚀 ...