U.S. equities popped at midday as the market rallied from Friday's shock from the June jobs report and the EU delayed new sanctions on the U.S. https://t.co/YiB1Ek6bIu ...

RT Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat)Equities are down 2% today and the best explanation is the stock market needs to digest the prodigious gains of 28% since April lows.- every dip has been shallow (except for tariff armageddon) since 2022To us, this is a "normal dip" --> you know what to do friends https://t.co/NAP3AlwD8L ...

RT Max Branzburg (@maxbranzburg)We’re building the everything exchange, and it’s a BIG deal.Equities is a $100T market. We can transform it by building the bridge to onchain capital markets.Imagine all of this in one place: millions of crypto assets, derivatives, tokenized equities, and more. https://t.co/HvBrzpGAcQ ...

Market Overview & Outlook - The AI trade is seen as justifying the current market rally and bull market [1] - The market is considered a strong bull market with record earnings and new cycle highs in profit margins [1] - The dual tailwinds of record earnings and new cycle highs in profit margins are supporting the bull market [1] - The industry suggests remaining overweight equities with a diversified portfolio [5] - The industry favors large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks [5] August Historical Trends & Potential Risks - Historically, August has been negative in post-election years under a second-term president, with the last six occurrences being down [2] - August is associated with unexpected turbulence and random events [3][6] - A potential 4% pullback is possible but considered part of the process [6] Investment Opportunities - Cyclical areas within the US market, such as industrials, financials, and technology, are favored [5] - Opportunities exist globally [5]

Market Trends - Japanese retail investors sold a record amount of domestic equities last week [1] - Global investors increased their holdings in Japanese equities [1] - The benchmark Topix index reached an all-time high [1]

The inflation picture is worse than the headline suggests. The Federal Reserve needs to hold off on rate cuts or that picture could get worse, and the outlook for equities with it. https://t.co/AH71BLvW3S ...

Market Outlook - The S&P 500 earnings are expected to show high single-digit growth, a deceleration from the previous quarter's double-digit growth [1] - NASDAQ is projected to have mid-teens growth [1] - The market's back half of the year is expected to perform similarly to the first half, though not as high as 24% [1] - The S&P 500 could potentially increase in the mid-teens [1] Economic Factors - Deregulation could potentially spur market growth in the back half of the year [1] - The Fed's current stance is viewed as neutral, with no immediate expectations of interest rate cuts despite some potential for future adjustments [1] - Inflation is at 25%-26%, which doesn't necessarily warrant rate cuts [1] Stock Picks - Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, is expected to perform well due to increased European defense spending [1] - Axon Enterprises, known for tasers and body cameras, is a favorable pick, particularly due to demand from cities seeking to protect officers and mitigate lawsuits [2][3] - Spotify is a good choice because users are sticky and hard to switch, with average user growth of 12% per year [2][3][4]

Investors in China look to be pivoting from gold-backed exchange-traded funds into local equities https://t.co/T6GZx1eT7F ...

Market Trends - Large cap growth stocks' rally is expected to gain further momentum, potentially driving US equities to new record highs [1] Analyst Opinion - Jefferies anticipates additional catalysts for the continued rise of large cap growth stocks [1]

Market & Economic Assessment - The Fed is in a difficult position, balancing inflation pressures with calls for rate cuts, while the economy grows between 2% and 3% [2][3] - Current market conditions, including high equity prices, low volatility, and tight credit spreads, are atypical for a rate-cutting cycle [3][4] - Speculative behavior is prevalent, with tight credit spreads making fixed income investments interest rate sensitive [5] - Fiscal policy is challenging, with $37 trillion in debt and a $2 trillion deficit, while the Fed maintains a $7 trillion balance sheet [7] - Inflationary pressures persist, particularly in construction costs and wages, making a return to zero rates unlikely [8] - The long end of the yield curve signals concerns about the US fiscal situation, as the 30-year Treasury yield is higher than when Fed funds were 51/8% [10][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - The administration's policies favor risk assets, but this may not be favorable for fixed income [6][24][27] - Investors should be cautious about taking on excessive risk in fixed income portfolios, particularly through high yield credit at tight spreads [6][15] - Private credit funds raise concerns, especially the push to include illiquid assets in liquid investment vehicles, echoing concerns from 2007 [15][16][18] - Meme stock activity indicates that investors are unafraid, with one penny stock accounting for 15% of stock exchange volume [20][21] - While the overall risk environment is favorable, it is susceptible to shocks, requiring careful monitoring and liquidity [26][27][25]