Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh by President Trump to lead the Federal Reserve is seen as a strategic move to return the central bank to traditional monetary policies and regulatory norms, especially in light of his experience during the 2008 financial crisis [1][5][10]. Group 1: Warsh's Qualifications and Experience - Gary Cohn highlighted Warsh's instrumental role during the 2008 financial crisis, stating that he was the point person at the Fed during critical discussions involving bank stress and asset movements [4]. - Warsh's background includes serving as the youngest Fed governor in history at age 35, appointed by President George W. Bush, and he has held various roles in the private sector and academia since leaving the Fed in 2011 [13][14]. Group 2: Expected Policy Changes - Cohn expressed confidence that Warsh would focus the Federal Reserve on its core economic mission, steering it away from non-financial issues and potentially implementing one to two interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Warsh is expected to reverse the Fed's large balance sheet policies, which involved significant purchases of securities, aligning with traditionalist views on regulation that support market growth while ensuring consumer access to capital [7]. Group 3: Political Context and Confirmation - Trump's announcement of Warsh's nomination ended months of speculation and reflects his long-standing relationship with Warsh, whom he believes will be among the most successful Fed chairmen in history [10][11]. - Warsh's confirmation by the Senate is required before he can assume the influential role in U.S. economic policymaking [12].

Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility, with international gold prices plummeting from historical highs, leading to significant impacts on domestic futures, stocks, funds, and consumer markets [1] - On January 30, international gold prices fell sharply, losing over 11% in a single day, while silver prices dropped by 31.37%, marking the worst single-day performance since March 1980 [1] - Weekly performance showed a cumulative decline of 4.71% for gold and 22.50% for silver [1] Price Movements - Domestic gold prices also saw a significant drop, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price falling to 1070.01 RMB per gram, a decrease of around 10% [3] - Major brands adjusted their gold jewelry prices from over 1700 RMB per gram to between 1500-1600 RMB per gram [3][4] - For instance, Chow Sang Sang reported a drop in the price of its gold jewelry from 1708 RMB to 1618 RMB per gram within two days [3] Consumer Behavior - Following the price drop, there was a surge in consumer interest in purchasing gold, particularly in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, where prices fell below 1200 RMB per gram [6] - Many consumers expressed that buying gold now is significantly cheaper compared to previous days [6] Investor Reactions - Investors are increasingly concerned about further declines in precious metal prices, leading many to sell gold and silver items to cash out [10] - Reports indicated that some businesses experienced a rapid decline in gold buyback prices, with a drop from 1142 RMB to 1081 RMB per gram in just one day [10] - The volatility in gold prices has led to a cautious approach among investors, with many hesitating to sell due to fears of missing potential price recoveries [10] Market Supply Dynamics - Some suppliers in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market reported shortages of gold bars, attributing this to the recent price drop and the reluctance of suppliers to sell at lower prices [12] - Suppliers indicated that they are not willing to sell gold bars during such volatile conditions, leading to a decrease in available inventory [12] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several major banks, including ICBC, ABC, and CCB, have adjusted their gold investment services in response to the market volatility, issuing risk warnings to investors [14][16] - ICBC announced changes to its gold accumulation business, including limits on transactions during non-trading days [15] - CCB raised the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation to 1500 RMB, reflecting the increased market risks [16][19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion centers around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under the leadership of Kevin Warsh and its implications for US Treasuries and interest rates. Core Insights and Arguments - A Federal Reserve led by Kevin Warsh is expected to result in a steeper yield curve over time, contingent on adherence to his previously expressed communication and balance sheet policies [6][10] - The potential for increased monetary policy surprises and reduced consensus among investors regarding future Fed actions may lead to heightened realized volatility in the markets [6][10] - Warsh's approach may involve a smaller balance sheet footprint, which could steepen the yield curve through a bear steepening of the term premium curve, while the rate expectations curve may counter this by bull steepening [10][11] - Investor speculation regarding the Fed's balance sheet intentions could influence the shape of the yield curve and swap spread curve until clear communication is established [11][12] - Historical insights from FOMC meeting transcripts (2006-2011) reveal Warsh's focus on CEO confidence, M&A activity, and corporate profit growth as indicators of economic health [24][25] Additional Important Insights - Warsh's views on inflation include a focus on TIPS breakevens, commodity prices, and the US dollar, with a preference for using the PCE deflator as a target metric for price stability [29][31] - He expressed concerns about the implications of high debt-to-GDP ratios, particularly if off-balance-sheet liabilities were considered [50][51] - Warsh advocated for a cautious approach to asset sales and emphasized the importance of communication strategies surrounding such actions to avoid market misinterpretations [54][56] - He believed that the Fed's credibility is more critical than its ability to cut rates, and he preferred a market-driven approach to economic assessments rather than a reliance on Fed guidance [33][36] Conclusion - The insights from the conference call highlight the potential shifts in monetary policy under Kevin Warsh's leadership, emphasizing the importance of communication, market dynamics, and economic indicators in shaping investor expectations and market behavior.

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

For much of the last seven years, optimists have ruled the roost on Wall Street. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has had only three periods since 1928 where it's rallied at least 16% annually for three consecutive years, and two of these three periods have occurred over the last seven years (2019-2021 and 2023-2025). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have followed suit by climbing to several record-closing highs. Where to invest $1,000 ri ...

Market Reactions - The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair led to initial market volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropping 139.16 points (0.28%) before recovering to close up 55.96 points (0.1%) at 49,071.56 [3][11] - The S&P 500 (SPX) experienced fluctuations, closing down 0.4% at 6,939.03 after earlier dipping as much as 1.1% [3][11] - The NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) ended the day down 0.7% at 23,685.12, marking a mixed market response overall [3][11] Commodity and Bond Market Impact - Gold prices fell over 4% to $5,115.60, while silver dropped nearly 13%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.25% from 4.24%, reflecting changing bond market dynamics [4] Trade Policy Developments - President Trump's executive order on January 30, 2026, imposed tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba, causing immediate fuel shortages in Havana and raising concerns about a humanitarian crisis [7][8] - The price of WTI Crude Oil saw a slight decrease of 0.29% to $65.27, with potential long-term risk premiums of 8-15% anticipated due to supply constraints [8] Aviation Sector Reactions - The threat of a 50% tariff on Canadian-made aircraft, particularly affecting Bombardier, led to a 9% drop in Bombardier shares on January 30, 2026 [10] - The aviation sector reacted negatively to the announcement, with experts expressing skepticism about the tariffs' implementation but acknowledging the significant financial implications [10] Overall Market Trends - Despite the tumultuous events, the DJIA recorded its ninth consecutive month of gains, while the SPX ended January with its eighth positive month in nine [11] - The IXIC, however, closed lower for the month, breaking a seven-month winning streak, indicating varied performance across indices [11] - Trading volume on January 29, 2026, was notably high at 23.36 billion shares, suggesting active investor engagement amid policy uncertainty [12]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite experienced significant gains in 2025, rising by 13%, 16%, and 20% respectively, marking the S&P 500's third consecutive year of gains of at least 16% [1] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-easing cycle is considered a crucial factor in the market rally, alongside technology trends such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged in its recent meeting, following three prior meetings where it reduced the rate by 25 basis points each [3] - Lowering the federal funds rate reduces borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which can stimulate lending, hiring, acquisition activity, and innovation, positively impacting the U.S. economy and stock market [4] Inflation Concerns - Despite the positive market performance, inflation remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of 2%, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributing this to President Trump's tariffs [5] - Powell noted that the current inflation rate is largely influenced by the goods sector, which has been affected by tariffs, while disinflation is observed in the services sector [6] - There is an expectation that tariff-related inflation will peak in the middle quarters of the year [7]

Market Overview - Wall Street's main indexes closed lower as investors reacted to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair, viewing it as a hawkish choice amid mixed earnings reports and inflation concerns [9][10] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 179.09 points (0.36%) to 48,892.47, the S&P 500 lost 29.98 points (0.43%) to 6,939.03, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 223.30 points (0.94%) to 23,461.82 [10] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh is expected to favor lower interest rates but will not pursue aggressive monetary easing, suggesting a potential shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [9][10] - Markets are adjusting to the implications of Warsh's nomination, with the U.S. dollar gaining and precious metals experiencing a sell-off [10] Earnings Reports - Apple shares closed up 0.4% after a forecast of higher-than-expected revenue growth of up to 16% for the March quarter, despite warnings about rising memory-chip prices affecting profitability [5][10] - Microsoft shares fell 0.7% after a significant 10% drop the previous day, attributed to disappointing cloud revenue [6][10] - Tesla shares rose 3.3% following reports of potential deals with SpaceX, contributing positively to the S&P 500 [7][10] - Verizon Communications saw an 11.8% increase in shares after forecasting annual profit and free cash flow above market expectations, driven by strong subscriber growth [7][10] Sector Performance - The S&P's Materials index led declines with a 1.9% loss, influenced by a sell-off in gold and silver prices [4][10] - Defensive consumer staples sector was the top performer, rising 1.4%, with Colgate-Palmolive gaining 5.9% after positive sales forecasts [4][10] Market Dynamics - The Russell 2000 index, which has been outperforming large-cap indexes, lagged with a 1.6% loss on the day but ended the month up more than 5% [2][10] - Overall, declining issues outnumbered advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [8][10]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market experienced a panic sell-off, with silver prices dropping over 34% from above $110/oz to around $75/oz, and gold prices falling over 12% from $5400/oz to approximately $4700/oz, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983 [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to profit-taking by investors after record gains and a rebound in the US dollar, alongside the news of Kevin Walsh being nominated for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which negatively impacted gold and silver prices [4] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may slow down its easing measures due to rising inflation and improving economic growth in the US, which could exert temporary pressure on gold prices [4] Group 2 - In Beijing, gold recycling prices dropped nearly 70 yuan per gram overnight, with significant fluctuations observed throughout the day, leading to a potential loss of around 800 yuan for sellers due to rapid price changes [5] - Consumers expressed frustration over the rapid decline in gold prices, with some reporting significant losses shortly after purchasing gold [5] - Retailers have implemented strict return policies for gold products, with many not accepting returns for investment gold items, and some brands charging fees for returns, which has led to consumer complaints about high fees and lack of clear communication regarding return policies [9][11]

分组1 - Kevin Warsh is set to take over as the new Fed Chair in May, pending Senate confirmation, succeeding Jay Powell [1] - Warsh is regarded as a credible and respected figure in monetary policy, with a strong background and insight [2] - The Fed's recent decision to keep interest rates steady reflects a positive outlook, with a stable unemployment rate and indications of diminishing risks [9][10] 分组2 - Inflation measures suggest no significant overheating in the economy, with current data supporting a cautious approach to monetary policy [7] - The Fed remains data-dependent, with potential changes in inflation expectations and tariff impacts being key factors to monitor [10][11] - The U.S. dollar has weakened, which could benefit exports but may also lead to higher prices domestically, potentially exacerbating inflation [22][23]