Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but faces challenges in determining future monetary policy direction due to differing opinions among policymakers and a lack of economic data [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, currently targeted between 4%-4.25% [2]. - There is a divergence of opinion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][7]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran is likely to support a larger cut, while other regional Presidents have shown reluctance to pursue further reductions [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns over the labor market are a significant factor driving the Fed's inclination to lower rates, despite a lack of recent data [11][15]. - The chief economist at Wilmington Trust anticipates multiple rate cuts in the coming months, potentially bringing the rate down to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [12]. - The Fed's focus on job market stability is heightened, even as inflation remains above the 2% target, with the annual inflation rate reported at 3% in September [15]. Group 3: Data Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a data blackout, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [16]. - The absence of key economic reports, such as the September nonfarm payrolls, adds uncertainty to the Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining price stability [16][17]. - The Fed is expected to communicate uncertainty regarding future policy paths, indicating readiness to adjust rates based on incoming data [17]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) process, which involves reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet primarily composed of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities [18][19]. - Recent statements from Chair Jerome Powell suggest that the Fed may soon signal the conclusion of QT, as financial conditions show signs of tightening [19][20]. - Market commentary is divided on whether the Fed will announce an immediate end to QT or indicate a future cessation date [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has rebounded after seven consecutive days of losses against the U.S. dollar, influenced by comments from Japanese and U.S. officials regarding fiscal and monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - Japan's new economic revitalization minister, Minoru Kiuchi, emphasized the importance of stimulating demand and maintaining a tight labor market while ensuring fiscal discipline [2]. - Kiuchi's remarks indicate that the government is closely monitoring the effects of currency fluctuations on the economy [2]. - Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest a preference for conventional monetary policy tools, such as interest rate hikes, rather than foreign exchange intervention [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The sentiment around the Japanese government bond (JGB) market and the yen has improved following the recent comments from officials [3]. - Foreign investors are reassessing their views on the Takaichi administration's fiscal policy, with indications that there may be less fiscal stimulus than previously expected [4]. - The yen was reported to be up 0.44% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 152.18 per dollar [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Expectations - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates during its upcoming meeting, but market focus will be on potential signals regarding future rate hikes [5]. - The European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates [6].

Joining us now is Paul McCully, former chief economist at PIMCO, currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown's Mcdana School of Business. Thank you both for being here for uh for commenting. Um I want to get your perspective, Paul, because Steve just outlined his survey where he said, I believe the numbers, and correct me if I'm wrong, Steve, 66% said the Fed should cut, but 92% believe they will cut.Y >> so that I mean that's a pretty big distinction. And how should we how should we kind of distill that. ...

92% say the Fed will cut. 66% say the Fed should cut. 100 basis points total of cuts in 2025 and 2026. So, we're not far from the end here. 320 is the uh average funds rate for our 38 respondents uh for the end of 2026. December 2025, just a couple months from now, the Fed will end QT. Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisers, writes into the survey, "Politics rather than financial conditions are clearly influencing the Fed's rate decisions. Financial conditions are near historically easy. Finan ...

The Federal Reserve is making loans cheaper. The federal funds rate is currently around 4.11%. By the end of 2026, this rate is expected to fall below 3.5%.Wall Street is excited, but middle class Americans aren't likely to benefit much from this decline in interest rates. Low rate and high liquidity environments benefit the guys who have money in markets, benefit the guys who already have the wealth. The top 0.1%: they have seen their wealth nearly double since 2020 to over $23 trillion.Stocks accounted fo ...

Do you think that concentration is is indicative of a bubble. >> This is the big question, right. Um >> I know eager to hear your thoughts.>> There's a um there's a lot of bubble stuff going on. I have a bubble indicator um which is a composite of things that would take you too long to explain. And the bubble indicator is relatively high.It has to do not only with the pricing, has to do with who owns it, how the financing is taking place and so on. And it's a relatively high uh um level of of of bubble. Um ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 98% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps tomorrow, according to Polymarket. https://t.co/XnZp4Z6Mds ...

In late 2024, the United Kingdom experienced significant disinflation. However, this trend reversed in 2025 as CPI inflation increased sharply by July and remained at that level through September with inflation averaging 2.8% in Q1 of 2025 before climbing to 3.5% in Q2. The sharp reversal stems from a combination of domestic policydriven cost increases, global commodity pressures, and lingering effects from past economic shocks.Food price inflation has been the primary driver, rising 5.1% in August of 2025 ...

Brazil’s inflation expectations eased for this year and next, following hawkish statements from central bankers indicating that borrowing costs won’t drop anytime soon https://t.co/iWIXvIOFt4 ...

Friday's cooler thanex expected CPI print is boosting expectations for the Fed to trim rates by a quarter point at this week's meeting. Joining us right now is former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She's also a CNBC contributor.And Loretta, what do you think. The the numbers were a little weaker than anticipated, but you're still looking at uh inflation up better than 3% on a year-over-year basis. >> Yeah, Becky, thanks.Good morning. You're you're exactly right. If you looked at the headlines comin ...