Inflation Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year in November, marking the highest annual inflation since May 2024, up from 3% in September [1][9] - Core inflation is anticipated to remain at 3% year-over-year, consistent with September's figures [1] Impact of Tariffs - Inflation has been steadily increasing since April, primarily due to steep import taxes imposed by the government on nearly all U.S. trading partners, which have led businesses to pass on tariff costs to consumers [2] - Despite some cooling in price increases for categories like rent, overall inflation remains high due to these tariffs [2][9] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Accelerating inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's goal of maintaining a 2% annual inflation rate, which has not been achieved since 2021 [3] - Some Federal Reserve policy committee members advocate for maintaining high interest rates to curb spending and inflation, but the majority favor rate cuts to support the struggling job market [4] Future Inflation Expectations - Many forecasters predict that inflation will begin to cool later in the year as the effects of tariff price hikes dissipate [7] - Wells Fargo Securities anticipates that while goods inflation may rise temporarily due to tariffs, overall inflation will stabilize around 3% through the first half of 2026, with a gradual decline towards 2% as tariff pressures ease and productivity gains are realized [8]

Core Insights - The last time the Consumer Price Index rose by less than 1% over 12 months without a pandemic was in July 2016 [1] - Kevin Hassett predicts a potential return to low inflation and strong economic growth similar to the late 2010s, with a target inflation rate of 1% and economic growth of 3% [2][3] - Achieving a 1% inflation rate would significantly benefit consumers, extending the time for prices to double from 24 years to approximately 72 years [2] Economic Outlook - A combination of 1% inflation and 3% economic growth is seen as possible but unlikely in the near term, as inflation has not been below the Federal Reserve's target of 2% since 2021 [3] - Most forecasters do not expect inflation to drop below 2% for several years, indicating a challenging economic environment ahead [5] Policy Implications - Hassett believes that the economic policies from the Trump administration could eventually lead to lower inflation rates [4] - Although Hassett is not the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, he remains favored in prediction markets [4]

Economic Restructuring - The jobs report indicates a continued restructuring of the economy, with a shift from government jobs to private sector employment as President Trump's re-privatization policies take effect [1][2] Employment Trends - Federal jobs have decreased by approximately 270,000 this year, while private sector jobs have increased by nearly 700,000 [2] - Native-born jobs have risen by about 2.7 million, contrasting with a decline of almost 1 million in foreign-born jobs [2] Wage Growth - Wages for middle-class workers have increased by around 5% year-on-year, which is approximately double the current inflation rate [2][5] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have been declining, with West Texas Crude dropping from $80 to $55 per barrel since the beginning of the year [3] - U.S. oil production is currently exceeding domestic demand, leading to falling prices [3] Gasoline Prices - National gasoline prices have fallen below $3 per gallon, with significant regional variations, such as Oklahoma at $2.30 and California at $4.35 [4] Inflation Impact - The decline in oil prices is expected to reduce inflation indexes significantly in the coming months, potentially leading to lower interest rates [4] Energy Policy and Inflation - Trump's energy-centric view of inflation, combined with deregulation and tax incentives, is contributing to wage growth that outpaces inflation, resulting in increased real wage affordability [5]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to perform well in the upcoming year due to a combination of factors including lower oil prices, tax cuts, and a new Federal Reserve chairman [5][25][43] - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude below $60 per barrel and West Texas around $55, down from $80 at the start of the year, which is anticipated to lower inflation [7][21][23] Job Market - The recent jobs report showed an increase in private sector jobs, averaging 75,000 over the past three months and 88,000 over the last year, despite a decline in federal jobs by nearly 300,000 [6][10][16] - Wage growth for production workers has increased, with average hourly earnings rising at an annual rate of 1.6%, although there are concerns about tapering wage growth [11][12] Consumer Impact - Lower oil prices are viewed as a tax cut for consumers, which is expected to support household spending and overall economic growth [18][20][25] - The reduction in oil prices is seen as beneficial for lower-income individuals, who are typically more affected by price spikes [13][14] Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 up approximately 35% since early April, indicating positive investor sentiment about future economic conditions [40][41][42] - The Dow Jones transport index and the small cap Russell 2000 have also seen substantial increases, suggesting a broad-based market recovery [41][42] Future Projections - Anticipation of a strong economic year in 2026 is based on current trends in job openings, productivity, and capital spending [19][32][36] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to provide insights into the impact of lower oil prices on inflation [31]

Economic Overview - The employment report indicates a cooling economy, with a loss of 105,000 jobs in October followed by a modest gain of 64,000 in November, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [1][2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years, surpassing the Federal Reserve's projection of 4.5% [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The rising unemployment rate may prompt policymakers to ease financial conditions, although the Fed is monitoring a broader mix of inflation and growth data [4][6] - The Fed's current stance remains patient and data-dependent, with no immediate changes expected despite the recent job data [6][7] Leadership Transition and Its Impact - The potential emergence of a "shadow chair" could influence rate policy more than individual jobs reports, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as leading candidates for the next Fed chair [8][10] - Hassett is viewed as a growth-friendly candidate likely to support earlier rate cuts, while Warsh is seen as more hawkish but could still cut rates later if economic conditions deteriorate [11][22] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The likelihood of rate cuts by spring is higher than current market pricing suggests, with traders reassessing expectations based on the evolving economic landscape [8][25] - The distinction between Hassett and Warsh may not significantly alter the trajectory of rates but will influence the timing and manner of potential cuts [24][25]

[Music] Investors are sorting through a mixed picture of updates on the labor market, but our next guest still optimistic on the road ahead for the economy and markets. Bank of America senior investment strategist Lauren Sanfalippo joins me here now to discuss. Lauren, it is good to see you.Let's start in the macro. Lauren, uh, you're all calling for real GDP growth to accelerate nominal over 5%. What gives you the confidence to make that call.>> Well, I think we'll find out more on Thursday on the inflatio ...

Comments on Tuesday from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic were hawkish and negative for stocks when he said, "After wrestling with all the considerations, today I continue to view price stability as the clearer and more pressing risk despite shifts in the labor market." He added that "he sees little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid to late 2026, at the earliest, and expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026."The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to a 5- ...

Market Outlook - JP Morgan suggests S&P 500 could surpass 8,000 next year if the Fed eases further due to improving inflation dynamics [2] - The base case is S&P 500 reaching 7,500, driven by one more Fed easing and a prolonged pause [3] - A stronger-than-expected economy, even with Fed rate cuts, should prime the market to perform well [3][4] Sector Analysis - The AI trade is undergoing a digestion period, but broadening out is expected tactically in Q1 [6] - Low-end consumer segments, such as cruise lines, restaurants, and the Las Vegas strip, could see a tactical lift [8][9] - For the medium-term (2026), AI remains central, benefiting big tech hyperscalers, utilities, big banks, and certain parts of healthcare like pharma [10] Risks - The biggest risk is the Fed closing the door to future easing earlier than expected, which could negatively impact markets and the broadening out trade [10][11] - The energy sector is becoming increasingly decoupled from weakening oil prices and is expected to be under downward pressure [11] - Pockets of staples, parts of industrials, and financials outside of banks may not fare well [11]

Chile’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point for the second time this year, pushing it back into the neutral range, as inflation edges back toward the target https://t.co/cqns7MLon6 ...

What is going on with the US consumer right now. We just learned the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November. That's the highest level in more than four years as that long delayed government report shows the economy added just to 64,000 jobs.Added to fresh data talking about retail sales being kind of flattish to decelerating and questions are mounting about how resilient consumer spending really is. Michelle Meyer can answer all of this for us. She joins us from Mastercard to break down these trends. ...