Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in canola oil futures, with a peak at 10,333.00 yuan and a current price of 10,085.00 yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment [1] - The preliminary anti-dumping investigation results on Canadian canola seeds will impose a 75.8% deposit on imports, significantly reducing profit margins and potentially decreasing import volumes [1] - The domestic canola oil market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to limited alternative sources and high consumption during the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Longjiang Futures predicts that canola oil contracts for September and January will continue to show strong fluctuations in the short term [1] - The anti-dumping measures are likely to hinder the import of Canadian canola seeds post-August 14, leading to a further decline in import volumes already reduced year-on-year [1] - The current high inventory levels of domestic canola oil may accelerate depletion, positively impacting spot prices and basis [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding the Canada-China trade relationship could lead to cautious purchasing behavior among domestic crushing plants, affecting future canola seed imports [2] - The high deposit rates may deter import traders, creating a risk of reduced canola seed supply in the domestic market [2] - The potential for increased imports from Australia and Russia may also influence canola oil prices in the future [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75% [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported canola seeds from Canada, requiring a deposit of 75.8% from all Canadian companies [3]. - This measure is aimed at protecting the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, as there is a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Reactions - The latest anti-dumping measure follows China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and oilseed meal since March, in response to Canada's announcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - Analysts suggest that this move will increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade frictions with China [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has also initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, leading to further deposit requirements [4].

进口预期收紧，近期国内菜系价格走势偏强。据南华期货（603093）方面分析表示，菜粕近月仓单问题 缓解使得近月回落，远月由于菜系供应不确定性问题而使得边际去库加速，盘面大幅拉升；商务部公布 文件表示，对所有加拿大公司征收的保证金比率75.8%，相当于直接进口成本上升75.8%，即使后续关 税确定后前期缴纳保证金会退还部分，但仍旧对于后续菜系整体供应产生较大影响。内盘菜系由于中加 反倾销关税影响，短期内存在冲高空间。 8月13日早盘，菜系市场做多情绪高涨，油菜籽期货大幅高开，菜籽油期货价格跟随冲高，菜籽粕期货 远月合约涨停，近月合约因仓单压力影响价格回落压力明显。 当地时间8月12日，据商务部公告，公布对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽反倾销调查的初步裁定，自2025 年8月14日起，进口经营者在进口被调查产品时，应依据本初裁决定所确定的各公司的保证金比率向中 华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金，对所有加拿大公司征收的保证金比率为75.8%。 据了解，2025年3月份我国已对加拿大菜籽油、油渣饼等已加征100%关税，如今随着菜籽加反倾销初 裁，或导致菜籽供应大幅收紧，原料短缺也将传导至下游菜油、菜粕的供应，从而推动其价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against synthetic rubber imports from Japan and Canada, citing substantial harm to its domestic industry [2][4]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The investigation targets "halogenated butyl rubber" used in passenger car tires, with the process starting in September 2024 [2][4]. - Preliminary findings indicate that synthetic rubber from Japan and Canada is causing significant damage to China's domestic industry [2][4]. Group 2: Import Duties - As of August 14, 2023, importers are required to pay a maximum deposit of 40.5% of the import value to customs [2]. - Japanese companies will need to pay a deposit ranging from 13.8% to 30.1% of the import value, while Canadian companies will face a deposit of 26.2% to 40.5% [4].

Group 1: Government Policies - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments announced that service industry operators can enjoy interest subsidies on loans up to 1 million yuan, with a subsidy rate of 1% for a maximum of one year [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, covering various categories including household vehicles and education [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified that income from express delivery services will be subject to VAT as "collection and delivery services" [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - A closed-door meeting of key dry-process lithium battery separator manufacturers reached several agreements to address issues like price competition and overcapacity, emphasizing price discipline and industry cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations into imported canola seeds from Canada, confirming that dumping has caused substantial harm to the domestic canola industry [3] Group 3: Company News - Guizhou Moutai reported a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.89% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 9.10% to 89.389 billion yuan [3] - Cambrian Technology refuted rumors regarding large orders and revenue forecasts, urging investors to rely on official announcements [4] - Shangwei New Materials disclosed that its major shareholder reduced its stake to 5% by selling 1.5844 million shares [5] - China Shipbuilding announced a buyback price of 30.02 yuan per share for dissenting shareholders, with the stock closing at 38.50 yuan, indicating a premium of 28.25% [6] - Hengxin Oriental is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations [7] - Quzhou Development plans to acquire 95.46% of Xian Dao Electric Science and Technology, with the stock set to resume trading [8] - ST Shengtun will change its stock name to Shengtun Mining and remove risk warnings, allowing for a 10% trading limit [9] - Grand Microelectronics acquired 100% of LUCEDA NV to expand into silicon photonics technology [10] - Sifang Precision plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.25% due to shareholder funding needs [11] - Shaanxi Huada intends to purchase 100% of Huajing Microelectronics through a share issuance [12] - Hailanxin plans to acquire 100% of Hailan Huanyu for 1.051 billion yuan, constituting a major asset restructuring [12] - Ganfeng Lithium is collaborating with LAR to develop a lithium product production line with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [13] - Yuhua Tian clarified that a minor stake acquisition by Zhiyuan Innovation does not significantly impact its operations [14]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 15 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 寂低价 : | | 收盘价 :涨跌;涨跌幅 | | | :成交量:持仓量 持仓量变化: | | | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, which may allow the risk - preference in the capital market to continue [22]. - The A - share market is currently in a slow - bull trend, and in August, during the policy window period and the concentrated disclosure period of interim reports, the market may experience local hot - spot rotation. Investors should focus on sectors with strong performance prospects [23]. - For A - shares, the main stock indexes continue the trend of oscillating upward. It is recommended to follow the trend in investment, pay attention to locking in profits during rapid rallies, and look for low - buying opportunities in IF, IM, and IC [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - news - China and the US issued a joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will also continue to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [9]. - Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [9]. - The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of over 90% [10]. - The preliminary ruling of the Ministry of Commerce shows that there is dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and Japan. Temporary anti - dumping measures will be implemented starting from August 14, and an anti - dumping investigation will be launched on imported pea starch from Canada [10]. - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been shelved this time [10]. - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" malicious competition, and eight dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises reached a consensus on anti - involution [11]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term but still in a downward trend [14]. - The sugar market has a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively breaks through the 5630 pressure level, a light - position long position can be tried [14]. - The corn market also has mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the competition at the 2260 key level [14]. - The national average price of live pigs is falling steadily. The futures price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [14]. - The spot price of eggs is stabilizing. The futures market has a large selling pressure, and it is recommended to avoid long positions [14][15]. - The cotton price is oscillating upward, but it still lacks a core driving force in the short term. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and subsequent news [15]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price continues to be weak. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the futures price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to the news of coking enterprise production restrictions [18]. - The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [18]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern and is expected to continue interval consolidation [18]. - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward trend due to cost increases and production - reduction expectations [18]. - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices are oscillating, and the market is mainly affected by macro and coal industry policies, showing an interval oscillation with a rising center of gravity [21]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, with strong expectations but weak reality in the fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within the range, and pay attention to the progress of mining license renewals and terminal restocking [21]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - On August 12, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The futures and options markets of various indexes showed different trends. Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - based arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [21][22].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 蛋白粕：加菜籽反倾销初步认定，菜粕远月大幅上涨 玉米/淀粉：市场延续弱势震荡 生猪：现货维持弱势，盘面窄幅震荡 橡胶：产地恶劣天气预期，胶价维持偏强震荡 合成橡胶：窄幅震荡上行 纸浆：阔叶价格持续回暖，纸浆阶段维持偏多看待 棉花：中美经贸会谈落地，或对市场情绪有所提振 白糖：主产国产糖量预期调整，外盘反弹 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间运行 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：加菜籽反倾销初步认定，菜粕远⽉⼤幅上涨 (1)2025年8月12日,国际大豆贸易升贴水报价:美湾豆204美分/蒲式耳， 周环比变化-11美分/蒲式耳或-5.12%,同比变化-36美分/蒲式耳或-15% ;美西豆178美分/蒲式耳，周环比变化-10美分/蒲式耳或-5.32%,同比变化 -52美分/蒲式耳或-22.6087%;南美豆308美分/蒲式耳，环比变化-19美分/ 蒲式耳或-5.81%，同比变化61美分/蒲式耳或24.6964%。 (2)2025年8月12日，中国进口大豆压榨利润均值186.28元/吨，周环比变 化+6.51元/吨或+3.62%%，同比变化684.54元/吨或137.3861%。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75.8% [1] - The decision is seen as significant, indicating that China does not require Canadian canola seeds, and it is effective from this Thursday [1] - The Ministry's actions aim to protect the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, following extensive consultations [2] Group 2 - In addition to the anti-dumping investigation on canola seeds, China has also imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal since March [1] - The recent measures are expected to increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade tensions with China, as Canada has previously announced tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products [2] - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, which will also incur deposits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The export volume and average price of titanium dioxide from China have declined year-on-year and month-on-month in the first half of this year, marking a continuous decrease for three months in a row for month-on-month exports and four months for year-on-year exports. The main reasons for this decline are anti-dumping policies from India and Brazil, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth leading to reduced end-user demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - China's titanium dioxide exports to India fell by 49% year-on-year in the second quarter, while exports to Brazil plummeted by 56% year-on-year due to the implementation of anti-dumping taxes [1]. - The overall export data for the first half of the year shows a decline in both volume and price, indicating a "three lows" scenario (low year-on-year, low month-on-month, and low export prices) [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The anti-dumping policies from the EU, Brazil, and India have significantly pressured China's titanium dioxide exports, leading to a crisis in export volume [2]. - Global demand for titanium dioxide is weak, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia due to economic uncertainties and slow recovery [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest a cautious optimism for the future, believing that China's titanium dioxide sector can recover to previous levels, but this recovery depends on global economic conditions and industry reforms [2]. - It is recommended that domestic titanium dioxide companies accelerate the exploration of non-restricted markets such as the Middle East and Africa, or consider overseas capacity layouts to mitigate long-term export pressures [1][2].