不过随着A股持续上涨、债市下跌两个月左右、黄金势不可挡，机构对于四季度大类资产表现也出现一些分歧。 A股四季度行情如何演绎？ （原标题：A股还能涨多久？债市何时止跌？四季度大类资产表现前瞻） 21世纪经济报道记者 唐曜华 吴霜 国庆期间海外股市、黄金表现亮眼，黄金历史上首次4000美元/盎司，节后开盘第一天A股即气势如虹，上证指数突破3900点。 季初赚钱效应爆棚之下，四季度大类资产走势将如何演绎？ 统计显示，今年以来，A股、美股、港股、黄金、国内债市及美债市场整体表现分化明显，其中A股和港股表现尤为活跃，科技、资源、消费等板 块涨幅居前；美股在科技和医疗板块带动下延续强势；黄金今年以来涨幅则超过50%，超出大部分机构和投资者预期。 具体来看，A股市场整体表现强劲，主要指数均录得显著涨幅。Wind数据显示，今年前三季度上证指数上涨15.84%，深证成指上涨29.88%，创业 板指和科创50指数均上涨51.20%。 在国庆假期海外股市普涨之下，国庆后第一个交易日A股气势如虹，上证指数突破3900点，上涨1.32%。从板块表现来看，今年前三季度涨幅最大 的行业是有色金属，累计上涨65.52%；其次是硬件设备（56 ...

Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market saw a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 3900 points, marking a 10-year high [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.73% to 3261.82 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,723 billion yuan, an increase of 4,748 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Northern Copper, and Yunnan Copper hitting the daily limit [2][6] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw a surge, with stocks such as Changfu Co., Yingjie Electric, and Western Superconducting also reaching the daily limit [9] - The rare earth sector strengthened, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit [8] Specific Stock Movements - Newly listed stock Yunhan Chip City (301563) closed up 40.89% at 164.56 yuan per share, with an intraday high exceeding 70% [3] - In the Hong Kong market, Xin Mining Resources surged over 120%, while other notable gainers included Hang Seng Bank and Lenovo Group [5] Gold and Precious Metals - International gold prices broke the $4000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the rise in gold prices is linked to increased concerns over U.S. dollar credit and sovereign debt [8] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip sector showed renewed strength, with stocks like CanSemi and Huahong Semiconductor hitting the daily limit [12] - A report from CFM Flash Market indicates that server eSSD prices are expected to rise by over 10% in Q4 2025, driven by increased demand from cloud service providers [14][15] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The controlled nuclear fusion concept gained traction, with significant stock price increases for companies involved in this sector [9][11] - The upcoming International Atomic Energy Fusion Energy Conference in Chengdu is anticipated to bring major developments in the fusion industry [11] Rare Earth Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on certain rare earth-related items, further tightening the supply chain [8] - Analysts expect that these measures will lead to a significant increase in the importance of rare earth recycling technologies by 2025 [8]

Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market saw a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to break through 3900 points, marking a 10-year high [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.73% to 3261.82 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,723 billion yuan, an increase of 4,748 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Northern Copper, and Yunnan Copper hitting the daily limit [6][8] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw a surge, with stocks such as Changfu Co., Yinjie Electric, and Western Superconducting also reaching the daily limit [11][13] - The rare earth sector rallied, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit [9][10] Gold Market - On October 8, international spot gold prices exceeded $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high [8] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include concerns over U.S. government shutdowns, political uncertainties in Japan, and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip concept gained momentum, with stocks like Canxin Co. and Huahong Semiconductor seeing significant increases, with Canxin hitting the daily limit [14][16] - A report from CFM Flash Market indicated that prices for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM are expected to rise by over 10% in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from cloud service providers [16][17] Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on certain rare earth-related items, further tightening the supply chain for these materials [9] - Analysts expect that the new regulations will lead to a long-term bullish outlook for the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors due to supply constraints [9]

Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.73% [1] - In terms of sector performance, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors led the gains, while the automotive, food and beverage, and retail sectors lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors such as rare earths, rare metals, and cobalt mining performed relatively well, whereas the film, duty-free shops, and photoresist sectors showed weaker performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a strong rally on the first trading day after the holiday, with major indices reaching new highs, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological competition [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73% to 3261.82 points [1] - The STAR 50 Index surged by 2.93%, with over 3100 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - Total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 26,723 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Key sectors that saw significant gains included metals, coal, electricity, steel, semiconductors, and oil, while tourism and media sectors experienced declines [1] - The recent focus during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays was on resource and AI sectors, with prices of precious metals, base metals, and energy metals rising [1] Strategic Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological competition remain crucial structural market themes, suggesting a framework for industry allocation focused on resources, overseas expansion, and new productivity [1] - The trend of AI expanding from enterprise-level to consumer-level is becoming more pronounced, indicating potential growth in hardware and application sectors [1] - Despite increasing trade disputes in October, it is anticipated that the overall US-China relationship will maintain a delicate balance, supporting the trend of corporate overseas expansion while downplaying external disturbances [1]

Market Performance - On the first trading day of October, A-shares saw a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points for the first time in ten years, closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.457%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.73%, and the STAR Market 50 Index surged by 2.93% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks rising and nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector experienced a surge, with gold stocks hitting the daily limit due to rising international gold prices during the National Day holiday [3] - The controlled nuclear fusion sector also saw significant gains, with Guoguang Electric hitting the daily limit with a 20% increase following recent milestone progress in the field [3] - The rare earth sector rose due to export controls imposed by the Ministry of Commerce on related overseas items, leading to multiple stocks, including Northern Rare Earth, hitting the daily limit [3] - Other sectors such as small metals, non-ferrous metals, lithium mining concepts, and superconducting concepts also performed well [3] Declining Sectors - The tourism and hotel sector faced declines, with daily per capita consumption dropping by 13% year-on-year during the holiday, leading to a more than 8% drop in Caesar Travel [3] - The real estate service sector also saw a downturn, with Huangting International hitting the daily limit down [3] - The film and entertainment sector weakened due to lower box office performance during the National Day holiday compared to the previous year, resulting in stocks like China Film and Hengdian Film hitting the daily limit down [3]

Market Performance - On the first trading day of October, A-shares opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points for the first time in ten years, closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73%, and the STAR Market 50 Index surged by 2.93% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks rising and nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals and gold sectors saw a surge, with multiple stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit due to rising international gold prices during the National Day holiday [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion sector experienced significant growth following recent milestone advancements, with Guoguang Electric hitting a 20% limit up [1] - The rare earth sector also rose due to export controls on related items, with stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Antai Rare Earth reaching their daily limits [1] - Other sectors such as small metals, non-ferrous metals, lithium mining concepts, and superconducting concepts showed strong performance [1] Declining Sectors - The tourism and hotel sector declined, with daily per capita consumption during the holiday dropping by 13% year-on-year, leading to a more than 8% drop in stocks like Caesar Travel [1] - The real estate service sector also faced losses, with Huangting International hitting the daily limit down [1] - The film and television sector weakened due to lower box office revenues compared to the previous year, with stocks like China Film and Hengdian Film hitting their daily limits down [1] - Other sectors such as duty-free, short drama concepts, and millet economy also experienced significant declines [1] Top Gainers and Fund Inflows - Precious metals topped the gainers list with a 9.28% increase, followed by basic metals at 6.52% and power generation equipment at 6.279% [2] - The electricity sector rose by 2.89%, while steel and coal sectors increased by 2.83% and 2.749% respectively [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to surpass 3900 points for the first time since August 2015 [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component increased by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.99%, with over 3200 stocks in the two markets experiencing gains [1][2] - The total trading volume reached 1.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 525.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The STAR 50 Index saw a gain of over 5%, with significant increases in the semiconductor industry, including Chipone Technology rising over 16% [1][2] - The GPU, controllable nuclear fusion, and rare earth sectors led the gains, while real estate and short drama sectors faced declines [3][4] - Notable stocks included ZTE Corporation, which hit the daily limit with a trading volume exceeding 12 billion yuan, and H-shares rising nearly 12% to a historical high [3] Chip Sector Highlights - The storage chip sector experienced a significant surge, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Yake Technology hitting their daily limits [4][5] - The STAR 50 ETF increased by 3.31%, with stocks such as Western Superconducting and Chipone Technology showing gains of over 16% [5][6] - A recent report indicated that global storage chip prices have been rising, with expectations of a 10% increase in server eSSD prices and a 10-15% rise in DDR5 RDIMM prices in Q4 2025 [6] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold futures surged, with the main contract breaking the 900 yuan/gram mark, reaching a historical high of 913.5 yuan/gram [7][8] - The precious metals sector saw collective gains, with companies like Sichuan Gold and Zhongjin Gold rising significantly [8] Nuclear Fusion and Rare Earth Developments - The controllable nuclear fusion sector showed strong performance, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent and Western Superconducting gaining traction following news of China's nuclear fusion device construction [9] - Rare earth stocks also performed well, with Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth seeing increases after the Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare earth technologies [10]

Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (October 1-7, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.57%, 0.39%, and 0.44% respectively[3] - The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose by 1.59%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.38% during the same period[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields primarily decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.14% as of October 7, 2025[4] - The yield curve steepened, with all maturities except for the 30-year remaining unchanged or decreasing during the holiday[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.78%, with the dollar appreciating against the Euro, Pound, and Yen by 0.65%, 0.17%, and 2.70% respectively[5] - The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, rising to 7.1458, a 0.24% increase[5] Gold Market - Gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising by 4.02% to $3979.00 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 3.40% to the same price[6] - A rebound in domestic gold prices is anticipated post-holiday due to the significant rise in international prices[6] Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to budget disagreements, which may lead to increased unemployment and reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting GDP growth[7] - The delay in non-farm payroll data release adds to economic uncertainty, affecting market predictions[8] Political Developments - Japan's political landscape may shift with the election of the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, which could escalate geopolitical tensions in East Asia due to her conservative stance[9] Monetary Policy - The central bank plans to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity, despite a net withdrawal in October due to maturing repos[10] Consumer Spending - The fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods has been allocated, expected to boost retail sales in the fourth quarter[10] Investment Strategy - The market may present structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and gold, while the bond market remains attractive despite short-term risks[11]

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - US and Hong Kong stocks declined. From 20250922 - 20250928, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.65%, -0.31%, and 0.15% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by -1.57% [2] - A - shares showed a mixed trend: large - cap stocks rose while small - cap stocks fell. During the same period, the wind All - A index changed by 0.25%, and the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 1.62%, 1.07%, 0.98%, -0.55%, -1.79%, and -0.21% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chips and growth stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.11% [3] - Most industries declined, with semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and new energy leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 8 rose and 22 fell. The leading industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, and new energy, with weekly gains of over 3%. Semiconductor equipment, science and technology innovation semiconductors, and chips among ETFs performed well, with weekly gains of over 7% [4] - Yields of various maturity varieties of interest - rate bonds fluctuated. From 20250922 - 20250928, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.14% compared to September 19, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.21 BP to 1.8768% [5] - The capital price increased, and the central bank made a net injection in the open market. As of September 26, 2025, R007 was 1.5538%, up 3.78 BP from September 19, 2025; DR007 was 1.5313%, up 2.17 BP. The central bank's net injection in the open market from 20250922 - 20250928 was 5806 billion yuan [6] - The bond market leverage level increased. The 7 - day capital cost was lower than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The differences between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 as of September 26, 2025, were 9.34, 34.68, and 68.70 BP respectively. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.16 trillion yuan on September 19, 2025, to 7.27 trillion yuan on September 26, 2025 [7][8] - US Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. From 20250922 - 20250928, US Treasury yields increased. As of September 26, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 6 BP to 4.20% compared to September 19, 2025 [9] - The US dollar appreciated, and gold prices rose. From 20250922 - 20250928, the US dollar index increased by 0.55%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically. London gold spot prices rose by 2.91% to $3769.85 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices rose by 2.51% to $3734.2 per ounce. Shanghai gold spot prices rose by 3.18% to 853.00 yuan per gram, and futures prices rose by 3.03% to 852.58 yuan per gram [10] Group 2: Core Views - The stock market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and investors can look for structural investment opportunities. Although the September 22 joint press conference of the three financial regulatory departments did not mention short - term monetary policy adjustments, there may still be reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. It is recommended to focus on directions such as AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, innovative drugs, gold, and rare earths [11] - Interest - rate bonds at current levels have allocation value, and investors should actively participate in gold allocation. The logic of the bond bull market remains intact, but high short - term risk appetite is not conducive to lower bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield close to 1.90% has allocation value. Gold prices are constantly hitting new highs, and it is advisable to actively participate in allocation [12]