Economic Recovery - San Francisco is rebounding from shattered storefronts, smashed car windows, and tent encampments [1] - The AI boom is significantly contributing to San Francisco's recovery [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **global economic outlook** and **market trends** for 2025-26, with a focus on various countries and regions including the US, Eurozone, and Asia. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Growth Projections**: - Global growth for H2-24 is projected at **3.9%**, with a decline to **2.5%** in H1-25, followed by a recovery to **3.3%** in H1-26 [9][10] - The US growth forecast shows **2.6%** in H2-24, declining to **1.6%** in H1-25, and stabilizing around **1.6%** in H1-26 [9] - **Tariff Impact**: - Approximately **$500 billion** worth of tariffs are currently in place, with customs revenue collection at an annualized rate of **$355 billion** [15] - The US weighted average tariff has increased to **14.5%**, up from **2.5%** at the start of the year, indicating a significant rise in trade costs [17] - **Inflation and Economic Indicators**: - The effective tariff rate is estimated at about **10%** for total US imports, affecting inflation dynamics [17] - The CPI for the US is projected to average **3.7%** in 2025, with core CPI at **3.1%** [159] - **Sector Contributions**: - The technology sector is highlighted as a major driver of investment growth, contributing significantly to overall economic performance [92] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - The US unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around **4.2%**, with payroll growth showing signs of slowing down [159] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Regional Variations**: - Different regions exhibit varying growth rates, with Asia (ex Japan) projected at **4.3%** and the Eurozone at **0.9%** for 2026 [8] - **Consumer Behavior**: - There is a noted disparity in liquidity among income groups in the US, with the top 20% experiencing higher liquidity levels compared to the bottom 80% [95] - **Future Risks**: - The report emphasizes potential risks from geopolitical events and policy changes that could impact market stability and economic growth [218] - **Valuation and Investment Risks**: - Multi-asset investing carries inherent risks including market, credit, and interest rate risks, which could affect asset valuations during periods of high volatility [218][219] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, tariff impacts, inflation trends, and sector contributions, while also highlighting potential risks and regional variations.

Industry Trends - Robotics entities are gaining traction on social media platforms, suggesting a potential resurgence of AI [1] - The convergence of robotics, AI, and crypto is generating significant interest and activity [1] Community Engagement - OpenMind is launching a leaderboard on KaitoAI to track top creators and contributors [1] - The initiative aims to foster engagement and buzz within the robotics, AI, and crypto communities [1]

Core Insights - The current AI boom is fundamentally different from the tech booms of the late 1990s and late 2000s, primarily due to advancements in technology and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Comparison with Past Booms - Unlike the late 1990s, the current AI landscape is characterized by more mature technology and a clearer path to profitability for companies involved in AI [1] - The late 2000s saw a focus on consumer internet companies, whereas the current AI boom encompasses a broader range of industries, including healthcare, finance, and manufacturing [1] - Investment in AI is driven by tangible applications and real-world use cases, contrasting with the speculative nature of past tech investments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current AI market is supported by significant venture capital funding, with billions being invested into AI startups, indicating strong investor confidence [1] - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into their operations, leading to enhanced productivity and efficiency, which is a key differentiator from previous tech cycles [1] - Regulatory frameworks are evolving to accommodate AI technologies, providing a more stable environment for growth compared to the uncertainty faced during past booms [1]

The AI boom has added $21trn to US stock values since ChatGPT launched. Actual AI revenue is a tiny fraction of that. On this week’s “Money Talks”, we try to make the maths add up https://t.co/Z5OzOeASfV ...

Europe is striving to claim a piece of the global AI boom, but remains dependent on US firms like Nvidia and OpenAI https://t.co/ybNEk7V1UC ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant market downturn occurred on October 10, 2025, with approximately $2 trillion in market value lost due to President Donald Trump's comments regarding potential tariff increases on Chinese products, leading to heightened fears of a renewed U.S.-China trade war [1][2]. Market Impact - The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, marking its steepest decline since April, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.9%, and the Russell 2000 declined by 3% [1]. Investor Sentiment - Prior to Trump's post, investor sentiment was relatively optimistic regarding trade tensions, bolstered by exemptions on key goods like Apple's iPhones. The sudden announcement of potential tariffs disrupted this complacency, causing a significant sell-off in risk-on assets [3]. Winning ETF Areas - **Silver**: The Physical Silver ETF (SIVR) rose by 1.4% due to tightening supply, increased industrial demand, and strong ETF inflows, particularly from sectors like solar, EVs, and 5G [4]. - **Defensive ETFs**: The Active Bear ETF (HDGE) and Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL) increased by approximately 3.1% and 2%, respectively, as investors sought defensive positions amid market volatility [5]. - **Uranium**: The Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) and Global X Uranium ETF (URA) saw gains of about 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. - **Municipal Bonds**: The National Amt-Free Municipal Bond Invesco ETF (PZA) and Franklin Liberty Municipal Bond ETF (FLMB) each gained about 0.3%, benefiting from the ongoing Fed rate cuts and favorable SALT deduction legislation [8][9]. - **Vietnam**: The Vaneck Vietnam ETF (VNM) advanced by 1.2% following FTSE Russell's decision to upgrade Vietnam's market classification, which is expected to attract significant investment inflows [10][11].

Core Insights - Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund's portfolio increased by 1.63% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell Midcap® Value Index which gained 6.18% due to stock selection issues [1] - The market trends from Q2 accelerated, driven by optimism around the AI boom and rising electricity demand, leading to significant gains in large- and mid-cap growth stocks regardless of their business model quality or valuation [1] Company Analysis: Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) - Centene Corporation, a healthcare enterprise, experienced a one-month return of 9.56% but has lost 50.95% of its value over the past 52 weeks, closing at $35.76 per share with a market capitalization of $17.563 billion on October 10, 2025 [2] - Centene was the worst-performing holding for the fund in Q3 2025, facing challenges from a policy-induced risk pool shift in the ACA Healthcare Exchanges, which negatively impacted profit margins and led to a pre-announced earnings cut [3] - The company is taking aggressive pricing actions to restore margins and provided a positive update on its action plan in September, which helped shares recover from a sharp selloff in July [3] - The stock is currently trading at 11 times the 2026 earnings estimates, which appear increasingly achievable based on recent updates [3]

Core Insights - Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund's portfolio increased by 1.63% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell Midcap® Value Index, which gained 6.18% [1] - Stock selection was identified as the main factor contributing to the fund's underperformance, as the market favored large- and mid-cap growth stocks driven by optimism around AI and rising electricity demand [1] - The focus on valuations during this period was noted to be potentially detrimental to performance [1] Company Highlights - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) was highlighted as a significant holding in the Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund, with a one-month return of 10.20% and a 52-week gain of 53.29% [2] - As of October 10, 2025, Lam Research's stock closed at $131.37 per share, with a market capitalization of $165.662 billion [2] - Lam Research is recognized as a leading supplier of semiconductor capital equipment, crucial for producing advanced integrated circuits in the chip industry [3]

Core Insights - Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund's portfolio increased by 1.63% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell Midcap® Value Index which gained 6.18% [1] - Stock selection was identified as the main reason for the underperformance, with a market environment favoring large- and mid-cap growth stocks driven by optimism around AI and rising electricity demand [1] - The focus on valuations during this period was noted as potentially detrimental to performance [1] Company Highlights - D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) was highlighted as a significant holding, experiencing a one-month return of -11.92% and a 52-week loss of 18.99% [2] - As of October 10, 2025, D.R. Horton, Inc. had a market capitalization of $45.19 billion, with shares closing at $151.58 [2] - D.R. Horton, Inc. was noted as the best-performing holding in the quarter, benefiting from its position as the largest homebuilder in the U.S. with approximately 10% market share [3] Hedge Fund Interest - D.R. Horton, Inc. was held by 64 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, a decrease from 67 in the previous quarter [4] - While D.R. Horton, Inc. is recognized for its investment potential, the company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with a suggestion that certain AI stocks may offer better upside potential [4]