Australian employment rose by 24,500 in July, driven entirely by full-time roles https://t.co/bJUh0foUNK ...

Employment Market - UK employment plunge showed signs of easing in July [1] - Labour's tax increases for businesses may be ending the jobs market shake-out [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Economy**: The conference focused on the global economic outlook, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic indicators in understanding economic trends [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - **GDP Growth Projections**: - The US and China are experiencing the sharpest growth slowdowns among the regions covered, with the US projected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 and China at 4.2% [5][8]. - Euro Area growth is expected to be 0.9% in 2025, while Japan is forecasted at 0.5% [8]. - Selected emerging markets like India are projected to grow at 6.5% [8]. - **Inflation Trends**: - A divergence in global disinflation is noted, with the US experiencing a short-term tariff boost to inflation, but a downward trend is expected to continue thereafter [9][11]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a pause in interest rate changes through 2025, while other developed market central banks are expected to ease [11][14]. - **Tariff Impacts**: - A 30% tariff rate on imports from China is currently in effect, which is expected to boost inflation over the summer [20][25]. - The effective tax rate has decreased to 13% since "Liberation Day" [22]. Employment and Labor Market - **Job Market Pressures**: - The job market remains under pressure, with payroll breakevens expected to drop to 70,000 per month in 2025 and 2026 due to rising deportations [29][66]. - Manufacturing production declines have been accompanied by falling payrolls [50]. Regional Economic Insights - **China's Economic Conditions**: - Persistent deflation is expected, with entrenched PPI deflation and low CPI inflation continuing [60][64]. - Consumption improvements are likely to be driven by policy measures, and the housing supply-demand balance has improved significantly in tier-1 cities [69][64]. - **Japan's Economic Outlook**: - Japan's nominal GDP is on a gradual growth trajectory, with base wage payments trending around 3% [85][87]. - The economy is not expected to experience runaway inflation or a return to deflation [88]. - **Euro Area Challenges**: - The Euro Area is projected to see GDP slowing year-on-year until Q1 2026, influenced by various shocks [52]. - The ECB is expected to cut rates to 1.5% by the end of the year [44]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Dynamics**: - China remains central in the global supply chain, with a stable global export share despite a declining share in the US market [72][74]. - The diversification of China's supply chain with new export destinations is noted, particularly in green products [77]. - **Political Uncertainty**: - Political uncertainty in Japan is highlighted, particularly regarding the outcomes of the 2024 Lower House elections [88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the global economic outlook, regional economic conditions, and the implications of tariffs and inflation on various markets.

Canada’s labor market fell back to earth with a sharp drop in employment in July, putting a spotlight on the challenges the country’s job seekers continue to face https://t.co/NgdqWHV7AN ...

Meet America’s Best Employers For Women 2025 https://t.co/2kdMEh5KC4 ...

An index of U.S. employment fell to its lowest point since October last year, as concerns rise about the resilience of the jobs market after large downward revisions to official data https://t.co/ywjB7qE6ih ...

Economic Data Accuracy - The US economy's unpredictability is concerning given its size and sophistication [1] - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data revisions show a downgrade in actual job growth [1] - The US economy created approximately 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2024 [1] - Inaccurate employment data leads to inaccurate GDP assessments [2] - Bad data is a fixable problem that requires prioritization and effort [3] Market Implications - Sophisticated capital markets can react to real-time data and make informed decisions [3] - The combination of inaccurate employment and GDP data could be problematic for the economy [2] Data Collection & Reporting - There is a need to prioritize fixing the data collection and reporting systems [3] - Existing systems and SAS tools should be leveraged to improve the accuracy of employment data [3]

The latest employment report showed the steepest downward revisions to US jobs growth since the pandemic, due in part to seasonal adjustment issues but also what economists say is a broader trend of low response rates https://t.co/Mpp9DXDVzi ...

Economic Indicators - June construction spending decreased by 04% [2] - Manufacturing ISM headline number is 480%, marking the fifth consecutive month in contraction territory [1][2] - Prices paid decreased to 648%, the lowest since February [2] - New orders are light at 471%, remaining under 50% for the fifth consecutive month [2][3] - Employment comes in at 434%, well below expectations [3] Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan sentiment final read shows a slight decrease from 618 to 617 [3] - Current conditions improved from 668% to 680%, the second-best reading of the year [4] - Expectations decreased from 586% to 577%, the weakest level since March [5] - One-year inflation expectation increased from 44% to 45%, while the 5 to 10-year inflation expectation decreased from 36% to 34%, the second-lowest reading of the year [5] Employment Data - May non-farm payroll was revised from 144000 to 19000, and June was 147000, resulting in a combined minus 258000 [6]

#数据 目前美国制造业总就业人数处于2022年4月以来的最低水平。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国7月季调后制造业就业人口减少1.1万人，降幅大于预期的0.3万人，6月份减少0.7万人。数据自4月以来一直在减少，与特朗普“将制造业带回美国”的目标背道而驰。 https://t.co/qImO4Zpna5 ...