Core Insights - The fixed income ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with inflows surpassing $325 billion as of mid-October, indicating increasing investor interest and a variety of options available [1] - Market uncertainty is prevalent not only in equities but also in fixed income, primarily driven by interest rate fluctuations, with over 90% of forecasts predicting two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][3] Fixed Income Market Trends - Investors are advised to consider intermediate bonds to balance income generation and mitigate rate risk as interest rates are expected to decline [4][5] - Municipal bonds are gaining traction due to strong credit fundamentals and attractive yields, alongside the benefit of federal tax-free income [5][6] Investment Strategies - Active fixed income ETFs are becoming increasingly popular, with products like Invesco's Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF (VRIG) offering diversified yield opportunities across various credit markets [8][9] - The Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) provides nuanced exposure to Treasuries through a laddering approach, enhancing portfolio flexibility [10] Market Evolution - The ETF marketplace is continuously evolving, presenting new opportunities for income-producing funds tailored to the current uncertain environment [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issues, and macro - economic news. It maintains a buy recommendation on the FAEACO 12.814 Perp bond, which has gained about 20 pts in the past two weeks [2]. - SoftBank Group's new bond issues are analyzed, with estimated fair values for SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s at around 7.6% and 8.4% respectively [4][8][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the TW lifers/BBLTB sub curve/HYUELE curve/PETMK curve tightened by 1 - 3 bps. There were two - way flows on JP/KR/AU front - end FRNs from PBs [2]. - Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s edged 0.1 pt firmer with light flows, while Yankee AT1s opened cautiously in London. BNP papers recovered after a previous plunge [2]. - Chinese IG benchmarks tightened by 1 - 2 bps. In Greater China higher - beta space, NWDEVL 28 - 31s were up 0.6 - 1.5 pts, but NWDEVL Perps were down 0.3 - 1.3 pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 0.4 pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased by 0.4 - 0.6 pt after Moody's downgrade. YUZHOU 27 lost 0.7 pt. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s led the space and rose 3.2 - 4.4 pts [2]. - In LGFV space, there were mixed, light two - way flows. RMs and AMs were topping up IG USD and AAA - guaranteed issues, and flows on higher - yielding papers were sporadic [3]. Morning Update - This morning, the new ASBBNK 4.155 30 tightened 1 bp from initial issuance at T + 60, and ASBBNK Float 30 tightened 10 bps from RO at SOFR+90. The new GSCCOR 4.25 30 tightened 1 bp from pricing at T + 77 [4]. - The new GEZHOU 4.25 Perp traded up to 0.1 pt higher with light flows. SOFTBKs were unchanged, and LGELECs were unchanged after S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers included VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 (price 69.2, change 4.4) and NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 (price 72.7, change 1.5). Top underperformers included NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 48.8, change - 1.3) and YUZHOU 7 06/30/27 (price 12.0, change - 0.7) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, the S&P was flat (+0.00%), the Dow rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16%. UST yields were lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.45%/3.56%/3.98%/4.55% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments on SoftBank - SoftBank Group proposes to issue 35.5NC5.5 and 40NC10 Reg S USD subordinated bonds (S&P: B+) and 37NC7 EUR subordinated bonds for general corporate purposes [8]. - The fair value of the new SOFTBK 61 (first call Apr'31) is estimated at around 7.6% vs IPT at 7.875% - 8%, and for the new SOFTBK 65 (first call Oct'35) at around 8.4% vs IPT at 8.5% - 8.625% [9]. - The bonds have step - up mechanisms, and will receive 50% equity credit from S&P and JCR until the first reset date. SoftBank has a track record of calling its bonds on the first call date [10]. - In Jun'25, SoftBank's investment portfolio was valued at about USD269.6 bn, with 76% in listed shares (about USD205 bn). It held cash of about USD25.3 bn and standalone net debts of about USD45.9 bn, with an LTV ratio of 17.0% [11][12]. - While it has completed refinancing for the current fiscal year, there is a medium - term refinancing requirement in 2028 - 31, but it has access to diverse funding channels [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced new issues include ASB Bank (USD500/300 mn, 5 - year, 4.155%/SOFR+90), China Energy Overseas Investment (USD100/100 mn, 3 - year/PerpNC5, 3.8%/4.25%), GS Caltex Corporation (USD300 mn, 5 - year, 4.25%), and Republic of Kazakhstan (USD1500 mn, 5 - year, 4.412%) [16]. - Pipeline new issues include Avation Plc, China Three Gorges Corporation, Softbank Group, and The Republic of Korea with various tenors and coupon rates [17]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, there were 158 onshore credit bonds issued with an amount of RMB156 bn. Month - to - date, 910 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB889 bn, a 31.1% yoy increase [18]. - S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable, and the Republic of Indonesia is looking to price 5 - year/10 - year dim sum bonds tomorrow [18]. - Other corporate news includes S&P revising the outlook of Japfa Comfeed to stable from negative, NWD denying LME on perps, San Miguel obtaining a USD1.5 bn syndicated loan, Sun Hung Kai Properties announcing a USD10 bn debt instruments issuance programme, and Woodside Energy's 9M25 oil and gas output rising 5% yoy [25].

Core Insights - BlackRock reported strong quarterly results, beating expectations on both revenue and earnings, with assets under management reaching a record $13.5 trillion [1][5]. Company Performance - The positive performance is attributed to strong fund flows and a strategic focus on expanding into alternative investments, private assets, and infrastructure [2][5]. - Digital assets, commodities, and fixed income also contributed significantly to the quarter's results, alongside core equity ETFs [5][6]. - BlackRock's shares have outperformed the asset management peer group, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 13% [10]. Market Environment - The current investment climate is characterized as "risk-on," benefiting firms like BlackRock, with expectations for continued strong performance in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - Macro factors, particularly US-China trade relations, may impact market performance, but BlackRock is positioned to navigate these challenges [3][4]. Competitive Position - BlackRock holds a competitive edge due to its efficient fee structure and a strong portfolio of ETFs, which are less susceptible to market volatility [12][14]. - The company is focusing on innovation and diversification to maintain its competitive position and enhance its business model [12][14]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that macroeconomic risks will be more significant than inherent risks to BlackRock, as the company prepares to strengthen its product offerings [13][14].

Fixed Income Market Outlook - BlackRock's Q4 outlook emphasizes disruption and desynchronization of global economies, creating opportunities beyond the US fixed income market [2] - The firm suggests investors consider global opportunities due to differing central bank actions across varying inflation environments [2] Investment Strategies - BlackRock favors the short to middle end of the yield curve, but notes improved valuations in the back end, suggesting adding some exposure there [3][4] - The firm highlights municipal bonds as an attractive opportunity due to a yield premium compared to treasuries [8] Alternative Data & Economic Indicators - BlackRock utilizes alternative labor market data, including job posting and wage data, to gauge the macro environment, especially during government shutdowns [6][7] - Wage data validates the economic slowdown already priced into the market, supporting expectations of continued Federal Reserve easing [7] Impact of Macroeconomic Factors - A weakening dollar and uncertainty around the back end of the treasury curve due to fiscal policy are driving investors towards alternative stores of value like gold [9][10] - Declining real interest rates, resulting from lower inflation expectations and Fed rate cuts, are also supporting gold prices [11]

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The current market operates in a data-scarce environment, making it challenging to gauge fixed income and yield movements during the government shutdown [1] - Corporate data is deemed more reliable than survey data, which often reflects market sentiment rather than actual conditions [2][3] Labor Market and Productivity - Labor data is identified as the most critical information for the next five years, with expectations that productivity and technological advancements will alleviate wage pressures and inflation [7] - The economy is projected to achieve a real GDP growth of 3.8% and nominal GDP growth exceeding 5%, indicating strong corporate earnings without a proportional increase in infrastructure needs [8] Business Efficiency and Scale - Companies are focusing on improving productivity through better inventory management and logistics, which is essential for maintaining higher margins and lower infrastructure costs [9] - There is a trend towards achieving scale in operations, which allows companies to run more efficiently while also supporting employment levels [9][10]

Fixed Income Strategy - The firm favors credit over duration in fixed income, particularly municipal bonds due to strong fundamentals like strong state rainy day funds and high savings rates [2][3] - The firm also likes senior loans and emerging market debt, now that some of the liberation day issues are behind us [3] - The firm prefers higher quality credit, such as senior loans, which have historically performed well during rate cut cycles [4] Economic Outlook - Employment markets are showing signs of economic slowdown [6] - The firm is focused on the government shutdown, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and third-quarter earnings as key factors influencing investment decisions [6] - The potential tail risks of the government shutdown include furlowed jobs becoming eliminated jobs, which could impact the job market [6] - The lack of economic data due to the government shutdown may hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [7] Equity Market Perspective - Third-quarter earnings are expected to be strong, with consensus estimates of 88% year-over-year growth, potentially led by tech stocks [8] - US markets are trading at a premium versus history, justified by tech and AI [9] - The structural trend of artificial intelligence is alive and well and here to stay and that will drive US stocks higher [16] - AI companies are larger and more profitable this time compared to the late 90s, with corporations integrating AI into their workforce to increase productivity and revenues [15][16] - The S&P year to date is up in the mid-teens, and usually markets end higher by the time the year ends [17]

Group 1 - The Conservative Income Portfolio focuses on value stocks with high margins of safety and aims to reduce volatility through well-priced options [1][3] - The Enhanced Equity Income Solutions Portfolio is designed to generate yields of 7-9% while minimizing volatility [1] - Trapping Value provides Covered Calls and Preferred Stock Trader covers Fixed Income, emphasizing lower volatility income investing and capital preservation [2][3] Group 2 - Trapping Value consists of a team of analysts with over 40 years of combined experience in generating options income and capital preservation [3] - The investing group operates the Conservative Income Portfolio in partnership with Preferred Stock Trader, featuring two income-generating portfolios and a bond ladder [3]

Investment Strategy - Investors should secure attractive bond yields as central banks continue to cut rates [1] - Fixed income returns potentially surpassing cash returns is anticipated [1] Market Outlook - Pimco suggests locking in yields amidst central bank rate cuts [1]

Asset Allocation Shift - The asset manager with $11 trillion in assets has shifted its recommended allocations to 70% fixed income [1] - The company now has more than $1 trillion in funds committed to bonds [1]

Data Center Investment & Opportunity - 数据中心存在巨大的长期投资机会，但对市场规模的长期预测难以准确把握 [2][9][13] - 麦肯锡估计数据中心需要 6.7 万亿美元的资金投入，但该数字的准确性有待考量 [2] - 能源供应是数据中心发展的重要因素，天然气市场或将受益 [3] - 资产管理公司在评估数据中心投资时，需要关注相对价值，并根据投资组合进行选择 [4][5] - 市场存在过度投资的风险，需要警惕 [4][8] Market & Economic Outlook - 市场普遍认为利率过高，但全球固定收益市场存在巨大机会 [22][23][24] - 国际市场，如英国和澳大利亚，提供了有吸引力的投资机会 [23] - 日本投资者是美国资产的重要买家，可以通过外汇互换获得合成信用和美元敞口 [28][29] - 长期来看，日本资金回流的可能性不大 [33] - 美国股市估值偏高，未来三年预期回报率为 6% 左右 [38] - 关税对美国企业的影响尚不明确 [40] Private Market Concerns - 私募市场尚未经历充分的考验，需要警惕经济衰退带来的风险 [15][16][17] - 自 2009 年以来，市场处于特殊时期，股票和信贷回报强劲，但这种情况可能不会持续 [18][19] - 当前市场状况与 2005-2006 年类似，资产价格高估，可能存在崩盘风险 [21] Fed & Monetary Policy - 市场对美联储保持信任，认为其决策是理性的 [42][43] - 即使有新的美联储主席上任，预计政策也不会发生重大变化 [45][46]