🇺🇸 US GDP (Q2 QoQ)📊 Actual: 3.8% vs Expected: 3.3%🔑 Fed Policy Impact:Solid data → rate cut expectations delayed💪Strong GDP, capex & jobs = higher for longer🏠 Housing weak, but not enough for easing📉 Short term: Fed likely on hold⏩ Mid term: cuts delayed if jobs & spending stay firm⚠️ Only clear slowdown in labor/consumption = faster cuts ...

Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.>> Thanks for having me, Scott. >> Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." >> Yeah, th ...

Core Insights - The labor market remains resilient, leading to increased Treasury yields and a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][6] Economic Data Impact - Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, and quarterly economic growth exceeded forecasts, contributing to a rise in short-maturity rates [2][3] - The two-year yield increased by approximately 3 basis points to 3.67%, marking the highest level since early September [2] Market Sentiment - Traders have slightly reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, moving away from fully pricing in a quarter-point cut in late October [3][6] - Despite the current economic data not supporting further rate cuts, some analysts still anticipate cuts in October and December due to a weakening labor market [4] Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year note yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield was around 4.75%, resulting in a flatter Treasury curve [5] - The yield gap between five and 30 years fell below 1 percentage point for the first time since August 11, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to implement a series of rate cuts [5] Future Rate Expectations - Analysts suggest that without significantly weaker economic data, it is unlikely for 10-year yields to drop below 4% in the near term, with rates expected to fluctuate within the 4% to 4.25% range [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current policy is considered too restrictive, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts to support economic growth and mitigate potential unemployment risks [2][3][28]. Economic Growth Outlook - Steven Myron expresses a more optimistic view on economic growth compared to some colleagues, citing factors such as tax incentives and deregulation that could enhance the economy's potential output [12][14]. - The expectation for economic growth in 2025 is tempered due to weaknesses observed in the first half of the year, although a rebound is anticipated in the latter half [16][17]. Rate Cut Expectations - Myron advocates for a series of 50 basis point cuts to quickly adjust the monetary policy towards a neutral stance, arguing that the current rates are 150 to 200 basis points too restrictive [27][30]. - The expectation is that as the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates will also decrease, despite recent trends showing long-term rates rising [24][25]. Inflation and Tariffs - There is skepticism regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with Myron noting a lack of evidence for tariff-driven inflation increases [5][32]. - The Congressional Budget Office projects nearly $400 billion in annual tariff revenues, which could influence the supply-demand balance for loanable funds and lower neutral rates [19]. Population Growth and Labor Market - Significant changes in population growth due to immigration policies are highlighted as a critical factor affecting economic outcomes, with potential implications for labor market dynamics [6][8][20]. - Myron suggests that negative net migration could lead to a positive shock in the supply of shelter, impacting rent inflation positively [21][22].

[Music] I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Saz and you're taking a look at a live shot of the opening bells on Wall Street on this Thursday morning. A little rainy in New York City. Guest of the South Korean government ringing the bell of the New York Stock Exchange Kodak AI getting things popping over there at the NASDAQ.Indeed, a lot of a little bit of everything so far this morning, friends. Some strong economic data, much of this may of the rate cut seeking bulls, but some negative news out of corpo ...

Core Insights - Volta Finance reported a net performance of -0.8% for August 2025, with a year-to-date performance of +3.2%, underperforming compared to US High Yield and Euro High Yield returns of +6.3% and +4.0% respectively [4][5] Performance and Economic Context - Economic indicators showed a mixed picture in August, with weak labor market signals and high valuations in the tech sector raising concerns about economic momentum [5] - Inflation data remained elevated but aligned with expectations, leading to speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The Bank of England surprised markets with a rate cut to 4%, the lowest in over two years, amid ongoing inflation and political uncertainty [5] - Credit markets remained stable, with minor changes in spreads for Itraxx Xover and CDX indices [5] Loan and CLO Market Activity - The loan market saw significant repricing, with 28% of the market repriced year-to-date, resulting in approximately 20 basis points of spread compression [6] - Volta received an early redemption of approximately €7 million from a European CLO Equity position and reinvested €5.7 million into a Euro CLO debt tranche [7] Portfolio Performance - Volta's CLO Equity tranches returned -1.1%, while CLO Debt tranches returned +1.2% [8] - The EUR/USD exchange rate shift impacted long dollar exposure, contributing to a performance decline of -0.34% [8] Financial Position - As of the end of August 2025, Volta's Net Asset Value (NAV) was €271.8 million, equating to €7.43 per share [9] - Cash flow generation remained stable at €28 million equivalent in interest and coupons over the last six months, representing nearly 21% of August NAV on an annualized basis [7]

🇺🇸 The chances of a rate cut in October reach 94%.BULLISH FOR MARKETS! https://t.co/dBfu0KxTV2 ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED POWELL SAYS AFTER THE SEPTEMBER RATE CUT, FED IS 'WELL POSITIONED'. https://t.co/HTDFP2TNKL ...

Market Overview - U.S. markets showed mixed signals with Wall Street cooling after record highs, while Asian markets surged driven by AI optimism [1][2][3] - Gold prices reached a new record above $3,750 an ounce, reflecting a nearly 9% increase this month as investors seek to hedge against uncertainty [3][4] Company Developments - Nvidia announced a significant investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, marking a strategic partnership in the AI sector [4] - Apple experienced a 2.4% surge in stock price due to strong demand for the iPhone 17, while Tesla and Nvidia continued to see gains [2] Regulatory and Political Impact - The proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee by the Trump administration has caused concern among tech companies and banks that depend on foreign talent [2] - Disney is set to return comedian Jimmy Kimmel to late-night television following a suspension related to controversial comments, indicating potential regulatory scrutiny in the entertainment sector [5] Investment Trends - U.S. pension funds and households are holding a record share of equities in their overall assets, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [6]

Market Overview - Major indexes experienced a volatile start to the week, with the Nasdaq leading a recovery that also benefited the Dow and S&P 500 [1] - Despite the recovery, concerns over a potential government shutdown limited market activity, with Congress yet to finalize a funding plan [2] - The previous week saw record closes for major indexes, with the Russell 2000 small caps reaching a new high for the first time since 2021 [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point rate cut is factored into market expectations, with traders anticipating two additional cuts by year-end and more in 2026 [3] - Future market gains are expected to rely more on solid economic data rather than solely on rate adjustments [3] Precious Metals Performance - A short squeeze contributed to a rise in equities, with Nvidia's stock increasing by 4% following a strategic partnership with OpenAI [3] - Precious metals outperformed other sectors, with gold rising by 2% to a record above $3,780 and silver increasing over 2.5% to surpass the $44 mark [3][7] Bond and Cryptocurrency Trends - Bond yields saw a slight increase, while Bitcoin fell to approximately $111,000, marking a two-week low [4] - The market has largely ignored the typical volatility associated with September, raising questions about the sustainability of current momentum [4] Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) - The major indexes managed to recover from a weak opening, with precious metals showing significant gains [7] - As of September 22, 2025, the Domestic TTI was +6.04% above its moving average, while the International TTI was +11.37% above its moving average, both indicating a bullish trend [8]