Sentiment Analysis - The tweet implies a contrast between broad, long-term forecasting and specific, short-term financial trading skills [1] - The tweet suggests that expertise in one area (macro forecasting) doesn't necessarily translate to expertise in another (treasury trading) [1] Financial Implication - The tweet questions the practical value of long-term forecasting in the context of short-term financial markets [1]

We've got Thomas Hayes, Great Hill Capital Chairman and Managing Member here. So, as we think about the SLR, of course, as we're hearing from Fed Chair Jal, who was commenting on it during his two-day stint on Capitol Hill, both discussing with the House Financial Services Committee and then additionally with uh the Senate yesterday here, this question came up. The SLR was supposed to act as a backs stop to riskbased capital requirements.Too often, the SLR acts as a binding requirement for US banks. They we ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

one year inflation drops from 66 down to 51. That's a pretty big drop. Joining us this morning, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian is with us Mohamed.It's a treat for us to be able to get your take on on the news of the day. I did read this morning that you feel that this this news out of the Middle East is net net maybe Stagflationary does that explain some of the action in treasuries. >> It is Stagflationary. The question is how stagflationary is it.And that's a function of what you just talk ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The market is experiencing a paradigm shift where the long bond is no longer considered a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as the preferred safe haven [2] - Gold has surged from $1,800 per ounce to over $2,000 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Central banks are accumulating gold, reversing a decade-long trend of selling, suggesting a change in their investment strategy [3] - Gold is now viewed as a legitimate asset class, attracting a broader range of investors beyond survivalists and speculators [3] Monetary Policy & Fixed Income - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2023 led to a significant increase of 100 basis points in the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond [1] - The speaker anticipates this trend may continue, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between rate cuts and long-term Treasury yields [1] Central Bank Behavior - Central banks previously sold gold at prices as low as $300-$400 and are now buying it back at around $3,000, highlighting their poor long-term investment decisions [4]