一纵一横战略

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花园生物(300401):羊毛脂高增,“一纵一横”效果显现
Orient Securities· 2025-08-21 13:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.90 CNY based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance in its wool grease and its derivatives, with a revenue increase of 42.12% year-on-year, attributed to increased demand from new production capacities [11]. - The vitamin product segment has experienced a revenue growth of 17.98%, although this growth is relatively moderate due to new capacity coming online and a slight decline in market prices [11]. - The pharmaceutical segment has faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 20.30%, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement and bidding processes [11]. - The company's strategic focus on a "vertical and horizontal" approach is yielding positive results, positioning it well for long-term growth [11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 1,362 million CNY, 1,497 million CNY, and 1,672 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 9.9%, and 11.7% [4]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.63 CNY, 0.73 CNY, and 0.93 CNY, respectively [2][4]. - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 59.9% in 2023 to 55.4% in 2025, before recovering to 56.7% by 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as the only global producer with a complete supply chain for vitamin D3, holding a 70% market share in NF-grade cholesterol, which is a key raw material for vitamin D3 production [11]. - The company has several projects in various stages of production, including a 6,000-ton VA powder project and a 5,000-ton VB6 project, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [11].