万华化学在本轮周期底部的相对投资性价比如何，利润底由哪些业务支撑？A: 行业层面自 2022 年持续回落，2025 年下半年周期见底，2025 年四季度已 出现复苏抬升迹象。万华股价自 2025 年四季度以来从底部回升，但在白马公 司中涨幅相对偏小；对比华鲁、华峰、露西等，后者涨幅更为明显，反映市场 对涨价预期的差异，也使万华在白马中体现出相对更高的投资性价比。白马公 司的特征在于相较同行具备更强的阿尔法并拥有更坚实的周期底部利润底。万 华在过往周期大起大落中形成约 120 亿左右的利润底，核心来自 MDI 业务： MDI 产能约 380 万吨，产销量约 300 万吨，单吨利润约 4,000 元，仅 MDI 业务即可贡献 100 多亿的利润水平。海外竞争对手亨斯曼、科思创、陶氏近两 年业绩亏损，同行亏损对 MDI 价格底形成支撑；叠加欧盟产能持续退出、供给 持续萎缩的态势，进一步强化产品竞争力与公司阿尔法。 聚氨酯板块（MDI、TDI）未来需求与价格趋势的关键驱动因素是什么？A: 公 司聚氨酯板块核心产品为 MDI、TDI 及聚醚多元醇。MDI 主要应用于欧美外 墙保温及国内冰箱冷柜隔热保温层，后续需求增长点 ...

华源证券研报指出，新和成产品线持续拓宽，业绩韧性十足。蛋氨酸快速放量，成本优势明显。据博亚 和讯统计，全球蛋氨酸需求保持4-6%左右增长，需求增量约10万吨/年。蛋氨酸供给集中，赢创、安迪 苏等CR4市场份额超80%。装置老化、成本上升等因素导致海外龙头份额持续收缩，去年8月宁夏紫光 天化蛋氨酸有限责任公司以7.74亿挂牌拟出售。公司现有产能55万吨，跃居全球前列。公司成本优势明 显，24年和25年上半年山东新和成氨基酸有限公司净利率分别为35%/38.3%。此外，香料盈利能力较 强，持续稳定增长，新材料有望快速增长。需求旺季及反内卷政策推动，近期维生素和蛋氨酸价格均企 稳回升。选择安迪苏、浙江医药、金达威作为可比公司，考虑到公司是全球精细化工龙头之一，兼具产 品涨价弹性及新材料未来成长性，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,147.23 | 0.72% | 3.08% | | 创业板指 | 3,354.82 | 1.41% | 1.83% | | 沪深 300 | 4,735.89 | 0.60% | 0.38% | | 中证 1000 | 8,426.33 | 1.52% | 8.67% | | 科创 50 | 1,473.28 | 0.54% | 4.98% | | 北证 50 | 1,547.20 | 0.77% | 5.51% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月25日 华源晨会精粹 20260225 固定收益 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截 至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其中 25Q4 单季 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 | 化学制品 非金融|首次覆盖报告 证券分析师 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 李辉 SAC：S1350526010001 lihui01@huayuanstock.com 张峰 SAC：S1350525120003 zhangfeng03@huayuanstock.com 李佳骏 SAC：S1350526010004 lijiajun@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2026 | 年 | 02 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 29.59 | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | 30.99/19.52 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 90,942.55 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 89,860.74 | | | 总股本（百万股） ...

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector is experiencing a correction, with the CSI sub-industry index down by 0.82% as of 10:28 on February 13, 2026, despite some stocks like Enjie and Tianci Materials showing gains of 4.65% and 3.10% respectively [1] - Sub-sectors such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins are seeing an upward trend, with leading dye companies raising prices due to tight supply of core intermediates, and PVA prices increasing due to extreme weather affecting overseas facilities [1] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a dual opportunity of cyclical recovery and industrial upgrading in 2026, with traditional demand anticipated to recover moderately as domestic growth policies are expected to take effect [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical index account for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yalv Co [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical index, focusing on the new round of prosperity cycle under the "anti-involution" backdrop [2] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked fund (013527) to explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector [3]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with specific sectors such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins showing signs of improvement, as indicated by a 2.2% increase in the Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) on February 11 [1] - Leading dye companies have raised prices due to tight supply of core intermediates, while PVA prices are increasing due to higher export orders following extreme weather affecting overseas facilities [1] - Vitamin prices are also rising as major manufacturers plan production halts for maintenance and increase their quotes, leading to tighter supply expectations post-holiday [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that includes listed companies from various sectors such as fertilizers, pesticides, and coatings, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and specialized chemical enterprises [1] - The index focuses on specific chemical products and technologies, aiming to highlight structural opportunities within the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with price increases in various subcategories such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [2][3][10] Short-term Logic - The influx of capital into the chemical sector reflects market expectations of a turning point, supported by stable core costs like oil and coal prices, which provide a clear bottom support for chemical product prices [4][10] - The stabilization of raw material costs is crucial for the midstream chemical industry, as it narrows profit volatility and clarifies price support [4][6] Medium to Long-term Perspective - The chemical industry is undergoing significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, driven by domestic "anti-involution" policies and global capacity restructuring, leading to a shift from simple cyclical fluctuations to a combination of cyclical recovery and growth premium [5][6] - A profound "Supply-side Reform 2.0" is underway, with policies accelerating the elimination of outdated capacity and enhancing the competitive landscape among leading companies [6][10] Demand Dynamics - Traditional downstream sectors face pressure, but sectors like automotive and home appliances are expected to improve marginally due to policy support [7] - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy are driving new demand, creating a "second curve" of growth for the chemical sector [7][10] Investment Mapping - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) offers a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, capturing both cyclical recovery and structural upgrade benefits [8][9] - The ETF includes leading companies benefiting from "anti-involution" and global capacity restructuring, providing significant profit elasticity during industry recoveries [9] - The ETF's diversified approach mitigates risks associated with individual stocks and allows investors to capitalize on overall industry trends [9][10]

价格：据Wind及博亚和讯数据，2025年固蛋、液蛋市场均价为21.68、16.49元/公斤，同比+1.6%、 +3.0%，2025Q3以来蛋氨酸价格震荡下行，2月9日固蛋、液蛋市场价格18.50、14.30元/公斤，同比分 别-15.5%、-7.7%，处于1.8%、1.1%的历史分位(2008年8月14日以来)。 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，据百川盈孚数据，2026年1月以来工厂趁下游春节备货挺价 态度强硬，蛋氨酸报价达到18.50元/公斤，期间国内主流工厂给部分客户补单18.0元/吨公斤停止此价格 接单。维生素方面，2025Q4部分大品种厂家持续挺价+渠道商库存偏低+下游备货+出口需求增加等因素 影响下，部分产品价格低位反弹。2月5日新和成饲料级VE50%出口报价上调15%，随后北沙制药VE出 口报价同步上调至7.5美元/公斤，主流厂家对后市多持挺价态度。 开源证券主要观点如下： 蛋氨酸：成本支撑+厂家检修+备货需求，蛋氨酸价格触底反弹 据百川盈孚数据，2026年1月以来工厂趁下游春节备货挺价态度强硬，报价达到18.50元/公斤，期间国 内主流工厂给部分客户补单18.0元/吨公斤停止此价格接单 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in institutional attention towards sectors such as agriculture, defense, and home appliances, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [4][7] - The report discusses the recent refinancing policies aimed at enhancing support for quality listed companies and improving the flexibility of refinancing mechanisms, particularly for technology innovation enterprises [17][20] - The performance of the "Preferred Gold Stock 30" portfolio has consistently outperformed the market, achieving a 21.9% excess return in 2025 compared to the CSI 500 index [13][14] Institutional Research Overview - Institutional research is crucial for investment decision-making, providing timely and multidimensional insights that complement financial information [6] - Recent trends show a decrease in total institutional research frequency across the A-share market, although certain sectors like machinery, electronics, and power equipment remain highly regarded [7][8] Sector-Specific Insights - The agriculture and aquaculture sectors have seen increased research interest, with a notable rise in the number of institutional surveys [8] - The chemical industry, particularly methionine and vitamin markets, is experiencing price rebounds due to cost support and stable demand, with methionine prices reaching 18.50 CNY/kg [29][31] - The electric equipment and new energy sector, represented by companies like Weimais, is benefiting from steady growth in the domestic electric vehicle market and expanding overseas [37][38] Company-Specific Insights - Jerry Holdings is focusing on international expansion and has been frequently surveyed by institutions, indicating strong market interest [10] - Baidu Group is positioned for a significant transformation in AI commercialization, with expectations for revenue growth driven by its cloud and chip businesses [34][36] - Weimais reported a net profit of 5.57 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 39.2% year-on-year increase, supported by growth in the electric vehicle sector [37][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in the dye, PVA, and vitamin sectors, with price increases expected post-holiday. It emphasizes the importance of positioning in the spring chemical sector [2][3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, supported by a stronger bottom, with Brent crude projected between $55-70 per barrel. Coal prices are stabilizing, and natural gas costs are anticipated to decline due to increased export facilities in the U.S. [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors such as textiles, agriculture, exports, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies for investment opportunities [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output. Demand is stabilizing with global economic improvements, leading to a forecast of stable oil demand [3][4] - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with PPI showing a slight increase and manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, indicating some volatility in manufacturing operations [4] Investment Analysis - The report recommends investments in the textile chain, agricultural chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies. Specific companies to watch include: - Textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agriculture: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group - Exports: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical, and others [2][3] - Key materials for growth include semiconductor materials, panel materials, and biobased materials, with specific companies highlighted for each category [2][3] Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings for 2024-2027, with recommendations for "Increase" or "Buy" ratings for several firms [15][16]