[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 港股何时能够利空出尽？ ——港股市场策略展望 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 何时能够利空出尽？ 观察窗口期：3 月下旬，可能会利空出尽。 （1）3 月限售股解禁高峰结束，二季度解禁规模显著回落：3 月是上半 年解禁高峰，规模近千亿，超过去年年末解禁潮。由于港股通账户无法 参与打新却需承担解禁风险，成为南向资金主要担忧之一。但二季度解 禁规模将明显回落，且历史经验表明，解禁更多是情绪冲击，个股往往 在解禁时见底，本轮解禁落地或成为利空出清的契机。 （2）年报披露接近尾声：互联网公司及恒生科技主要成分股的年报集中 在 3 月末披露完毕，业绩不确定性将随之消除。同时，阿里云涨价可能 成为相关公司业绩反转的潜在催化因素，为科技板块注入新预期。 （3）外部环境有望改善：原定 3 月末的特朗普访华推迟至 4 月，若后 续成行，有望提振市场偏好，缓解外部关系紧张带来的估值压制。 （4）地缘扰动逐步消化：受美伊冲突影响，市场对 2026 年降息预期已 下调至 0 次，但这一判断建立在短期地 ...

Market Outlook - The market outlook remains neutrally optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to stabilize gradually after mid-March 2026, potentially challenging the 5178-2440 range in the second half of Q2 2026[5] - A "systematic slow bull" trend is anticipated, with growth indices expected to stabilize by the end of April 2026[5] Style Rotation - Mid and large-cap stocks are expected to outperform, with a balanced focus on growth and value[6] - The valuation style is becoming more balanced, with growth and value indices showing similar performance[10] Industry Allocation - The strategy emphasizes both new and traditional energy sectors, with a focus on cyclical consumer goods[7] - Key investment directions include power equipment benefiting from "computing and electricity synergy," traditional industries undergoing value reassessment, and consumer services with significant growth potential[7] Thematic Investment - AI is reshaping value foundations, with a focus on "HALO" trading and new opportunities in token overseas expansion[8] - Investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and related technologies are highlighted[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February 2026, the highest since December 2025, while oil prices have increased by 70% year-to-date due to geopolitical tensions[16] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for FY2025 was recorded at $1.78 trillion, with a projected deficit rate of 5.8% for FY2026[21] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending is expected to improve due to policies like the "trade-in" program and increased demand during holidays[25] - Investment growth is supported by the issuance of special bonds and new policy financial tools, with a projected increase in infrastructure investment[25] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected international geopolitical tensions, slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, and the subjective nature of models used for predictions[9]

证券研究报告 蓄势而为，更上层楼 ——2026年二季度策略报告 2026年3月19日 | 分析师 | 廖静池 | | 分析师 | 王大霁 | 分析师 | 赵闻恺 | 分析师 | 高旗胜 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号 | S1230524070005 | | 证书编号 | S1230524060002 | 证书编号 | S1230524100006 | 证书编号 | S1230524100005 | | 邮箱 | liaojingchi@stocke.com.cn | | 邮箱 | wangdaji@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhaowenkai@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | gaoqisheng@stocke.com.cn | | 研究助理 | | 张沛 | | 分析师 | 黄宇宸 | 分析师 | 李沛 | | | 证书编号 | | -- | | 证书编号 | S1230523080004 | 证书编号 | S1230525010002 | | | 邮箱 | | zhangpei@s ...

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a rebound after hitting a low, with a notable recovery in the storage chip sector [5][7] - The overall A-share market saw a slight decline of 0.05%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26% and the ChiNext Index up 1.41% [7][8] - The storage chip sector is leading the market rebound, supported by anticipated price increases in storage products by major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix [10] Economic Indicators - In January-February 2026, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 86,079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [15][16] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.3% year-on-year during the same period, with manufacturing increasing by 6.6% [17][18] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52,721 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [19][20] Industry Dynamics - The real estate market saw new home sales of 818.6 billion yuan in January-February 2026, a year-on-year decline of 20.2% [27][28] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow their decline in February 2026 [29][30] - The Southern Power Grid Company reported a significant increase in fixed asset investment, reaching 250.8 billion yuan in the first two months of 2026, a year-on-year growth of 95.3% [31][32] Company Updates - Haishi Ke (002653.SZ) received approval for clinical trials of its innovative drug HSK46575 for new indications in prostate cancer treatment [40][41] - Shantui (000680.SZ) reported a 2.82% increase in revenue for 2025, with net profit rising by 9.86% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in overseas markets [42][43]

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Group 1: Fixed Income/Banking - The report highlights a strong start for foreign trade in 2026, with total imports and exports reaching 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, marking a historical high for the same period [2][9] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% in 2026, with potential lows of 1.75% in Q1 and 1.70% in Q2 [2][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report indicates that the pig price has fallen below cash costs, with the latest price at 10.07 yuan/kg, leading to negative cash flow in the industry [2][13] - The macroeconomic sentiment is expected to support rising agricultural product prices, driven by increasing costs and demand for substitutes, particularly due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [2][20] Group 3: North Exchange - The Nvidia GTC2026 conference is expected to drive the demand for liquid cooling systems, with AI clusters pushing power consumption to 120kW-150kW, making liquid cooling a necessity for sustainable AI data centers [2][22] - The report identifies 11 companies in the North Exchange liquid cooling server supply chain, indicating a growing market projected to reach 294 billion yuan by 2025 [2][23] Group 4: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes stricter carbon emission controls and the rapid development of carbon markets, with a focus on zero-carbon parks and green fuels [2][30] - The report suggests that the domestic natural gas supply will be increasingly important, with stable production growth and geopolitical factors supporting gas prices [2][33] Group 5: Pharmaceuticals - The report notes that the PD1 plus sector is expected to see numerous catalysts, with a focus on companies like Kangfang Biologics and Shanghai Yizhong, which are well-positioned for growth [2][5] Group 6: Media - Apple's reduction of App Store commission rates from 30% to 25% is expected to benefit gaming and related companies, with major internet firms like Tencent and Alibaba set to release earnings reports [2][6] Group 7: Automotive - The report discusses the acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization in the U.S. due to new legislation, which is expected to resolve key regulatory issues and promote industry growth [2][7]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 03 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 透视"十五五"规划纲要：焦点与路径 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—一文读懂两会热点——20260315 【宏观】透视"十五五"规划纲要：焦点与路径——20260314 【宏观】2 月信贷社融双双超预期的背后——20260313 【金融工程】科创 50 确认日线级别下跌——20260315 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周宏观基本面分数小幅上升—— 20260314 【固定收益】长债短债分化的逻辑与前景——20260315 【固定收益】央行回笼资金宽松，自律升级短债下行——流动性和机构 行为跟踪——20260314 【固定收益】财政节奏加快或带动企业融资改善——20260314 【银行】宽信用节奏平稳，资金活化趋势延续——20260315 【通信】光纤光缆：AI 驱动下的新周期——20260315 【非银金融】行业周报|""十五五"规划：资本场与与险行行业心部署 总结——20260315 【机械设备】26 年 GTC 大会前瞻：物理 agent——20260315 【国防军工】铼：先进航空发动机、燃气 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw declines with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% at 4095.45 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.65% at 14280.78 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.22% at 3310.28 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 241.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [10][12] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% to 25465.6 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 0.99% to 4978.08 points, and the KOSPI decreased by 1.72% to 5487.24 points. The Nikkei 225 Index also fell by 1.04% to 53819.61 points [10][12] - European markets experienced declines as well, with the FTSE 100 down 0.43% at 10261.15 points, the DAX 30 down 0.6% at 23447.29 points, and the CAC 40 down 0.91% at 7911.53 points [10][12] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 46558.47 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.61% to 6632.19 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.93% to 22105.36 points [10][12] International News - The US President stated that Iran has expressed willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, but the conditions proposed are currently deemed insufficient, leading to a temporary halt in reaching an agreement [9][12] - Elon Musk announced that Tesla's Terafab project, aimed at manufacturing AI chips, will launch in seven days, marking a significant expansion beyond its core electric vehicle business [11] Domestic News - A new round of US-China trade negotiations commenced on March 15, with expectations for both countries to inject stability into the global economy. Previous rounds have shown positive results, indicating that equal negotiation is a viable path to resolving differences [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported a rebound in several high-frequency data points for consumption and investment in January-February, with retail consumption and service consumption increasing by 5.7% and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and the People's Bank of China jointly issued regulations on personal loan business, effective from August 1, 2026, requiring clear disclosure of comprehensive financing costs [12] Important Announcements - XW Communication plans to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through a private placement to invest in commercial satellite communication devices [13] - China Power Construction signed a construction contract for the TMS nickel mining project in Indonesia worth approximately 5.456 billion yuan [13] - Yongtai Technology's subsidiary intends to invest 550 million yuan in the expansion of lithium hexafluorophosphate production [13] - Aidi Pharmaceutical received drug registration approval for its product, sodium multiraviroc [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of March 16, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of price leadership in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in the context of rising raw material costs due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [2] - The report highlights the approval of China's first invasive brain-machine interface, marking a significant milestone in medical technology and potential market opportunities [5] - The report notes a strong trend in China's innovative drug exports, with a significant increase in licensing deals and collaborations, indicating robust growth in the sector [6] Summary by Sections Supply Chain and Pricing Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of macroeconomic changes on supply chains, particularly the price increases in upstream chemical products affecting pharmaceutical raw materials [2] - It mentions that 90% of monitored products saw price increases, with the chemical product price index rising by 28.52% since the beginning of the year [2] - Specific raw materials like Vitamin E and methionine have seen price increases of 40.54% and 84.66% respectively since the start of the year [2] Market Trends and Innovations - The report details the rising prices of disposable gloves due to increased costs of upstream materials, with notable price hikes in butadiene and acrylonitrile [3] - It highlights the competitive landscape for disposable gloves, noting that leading companies are leveraging their cost advantages to implement price increases [3] - The report also discusses the potential for domestic medical products to benefit from export controls on dual-use items, enhancing China's competitive edge [4] Regulatory Developments and Market Opportunities - The approval of the brain-machine interface by the National Medical Products Administration is a significant development, with a large potential patient base in China [5] - The report outlines the introduction of new pricing guidelines for invasive brain-machine interfaces, which could facilitate market entry and reimbursement [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on raw material producers with price leadership, such as Zhejiang Medicine and Chuan Ning Biological, and highlights companies like Yingke Medical and Blue Sail Medical in the disposable glove sector [8] - It suggests monitoring companies benefiting from resource management policies, such as Aidi Te, and those involved in the invasive brain-machine interface market, like Meihua Medical [8] - The report also emphasizes the growth potential in the small nucleic acid drug sector, recommending companies like Yuyuan Pharmaceutical and Sunshine Nuohe [8] Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific EPS and PE ratios highlighted for investment consideration [9]

Strategy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling volatility and focusing on new energy sectors while recognizing the resilience of domestic demand [1] - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, impacting trading strategies [3][8] - The report categorizes assets into three types based on their correlation with the worsening Middle East situation: crisis trading, stagflation trading, and normalization trading [8][19] Group 1: Geopolitical Trading Logic - The report identifies three categories of overseas scenario trading assets: crisis trading, stagflation trading, and normalization trading, each with distinct characteristics and implications for investment strategies [8] - Crisis trading assets, such as energy and shipping, are directly affected by supply shocks and are expected to gain risk premiums [8] - Stagflation trading focuses on assets that can withstand supply shocks, such as gold and domestic demand assets, which are expected to show relative stability [8][19] Group 2: Focus on New Energy and Domestic Demand - The report highlights that new energy sectors, including wind, solar, and lithium batteries, are expected to benefit from the current geopolitical landscape and have a strong mid-term outlook [3][41] - Domestic demand-related sectors, such as food and beverage, beauty care, real estate, pharmaceuticals, retail, and banking, are noted for their low volatility, with historical volatility levels below 50% [3][41] - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in domestic prices, further supporting the outlook for these sectors [3][41] Group 3: Fertilizer and Semiconductor Materials - The report points out that the fertilizer sector, particularly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers, is facing supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, with the Middle East being a critical supplier [23][24] - The report also highlights the potential impact on semiconductor materials, particularly helium, due to supply disruptions from Qatar, which could significantly affect the semiconductor industry [24][25] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Volatility - The report notes that the current market environment is dominated by crisis trading, with significant fluctuations in asset prices driven by geopolitical uncertainties [19][26] - It emphasizes the need to identify low-volatility assets that are less correlated with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting a focus on sectors with historically lower volatility [26][29] - The report indicates that the market is beginning to shift towards low-volatility sectors, reflecting a heightened demand for certainty amid rising overall market volatility [29]