Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equities (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, covering market trends, investment strategies, and industry outlooks [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic view, continue the allocation idea of technology circle - shrinking and cyclical sectors, and focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. In the AI field, hardware is preferred over software [5] - For Chinese - funded stocks, in the short - term, the style may switch from themes to high - quality growth or low - level sectors. In the medium - term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets, some new energy sectors, and the non - ferrous metals sector [12] Summary by Relevant Content US Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the AI hardware and AI power sectors led the rise, with hardware outperforming software. The "shrinking circle" differentiation of the technology sector has further intensified [3][5] - **Investment Strategy**: In 2026, the market style will be more balanced. Focus on "technology circle - shrinking" and theme investment opportunities in "physical AI". The K - shaped differentiation between Mag7 and Ex - Mag7, and between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 is expected to gradually converge. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software [5] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The technology industry may be at a position similar to that in 1997 from the ROIC perspective [27] Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Sentiment**: Recently, under regulatory guidance, sentiment has cooled. Southbound funds' trading volume proportion has increased at the beginning of the year [7][8] - **Market Performance**: In the short - term, the spring rally in the A - share market has started, and Hong Kong stocks have shown a supplementary increase. In the medium - to long - term, the A - share market may have greater elasticity than the Hong Kong stock market [10] - **Investment Strategy**: - Short - term: The style may switch, and it is recommended to focus on technology and cyclical sectors with high performance certainty [12] - Medium - term: For Hong Kong stocks, maintain a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets, new energy sectors, and non - ferrous metals sectors [12] A - Share Market - **Performance Forecast**: As of January 16, stocks with expected profit growth of over 100% are mainly concentrated in the electronics, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment industries [13] Valuation Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 12 times, approaching the mean + 1 STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.9 times, approaching the mean in the past five years. The ERP of the Hang Seng Index is 4.7%, and the ERP of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 0.9% [15][16] - **US Stocks**: Analyze the odds from the forward PE perspective, and the overall credit spread of the US stock market and the technology sector remains low [23]

2026 年 01 月 18 日 策略类●证券研究报告 活跃周期在途，但短线情绪过热或暗含局部波动风险 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：上周，新股次新板块总体继续保持活跃，赚钱效应略微收敛。短期来 看，随着元旦后新股活跃周期开启，开启时间尚短但短线情绪回暖却显得过于急促， 可能板块将逐渐呈现博弈加剧的震荡活跃行情；一方面，新股次新板块向上活跃周 期有望继续演绎，不少具备估值性价比或预期具有业绩主题催化的新股次新标的有 望轮番获得关注；另一方面，局部过热也颇为凸显，主题轮动或标的间高低切或也 将更为频繁，分化波动或将逐步加大。建议继续积极择机同时，局部要重视节奏和 取舍、适度警惕。 上周新股表现： （1）新股发行表现：上周共有 3 只新股网上申购；其中，1 只为科创板、2 只为北 证。从上周网上申购的新股情况来看，平均发行市盈率为 26.1X，平均网上申购中 签率为 0.0244%。 （2）上周上市新股表现：假设将上周上市的沪深新股收益表现拆解为打新收益和 二级市场开板后的上涨收益，1）首先，打新收益来看，上周沪深新股上市首日平 均涨幅约 213.4%，比较此前交易周平均涨幅约 64%，沪深新股首日涨幅再度回升 ...

从"风生水起"到"涛声依旧" 2025年，港股股权融资市场实现爆发式增长。据Wind数据，融资总额达6122亿港元，同比增幅高达 250.91%。其中IPO市场更是重回全球首位，117家企业合计募资2858亿港元，同比增长224.24%。 目前，多数机构都研判港股股权融资活跃态势会持续。而对于IPO对港股流动性的影响，受访人士指 出，应该区分结构性问题与阶段性现象。好的IPO不仅不会抽走流动性，反而会吸引更多国际资本进 入。 "港股2025年的势头会持续下去。"王亚军表示，如果用风生水起来总结港股2025年的表现，那么展望 2026年可以用"涛声依旧"一词，虽然同比增速可能难以匹敌2025年，但IPO和再融资的规模都将维持在 较高水平。 这几乎也是市场的共识。尤其是对2026年港股的IPO市场，多家市场观察机构预判2026年募资规模会超 过3000亿港元。驱动力则主要来自港交所政策利好、中概股回流及AH两地上市热潮、出海需求日益旺 盛等。有头部投行从业人士透露，2025年12月对市场体感一度偏冷，但1月份又突然火爆起来。王亚军 也表示，年初至今异常繁忙。 在经历2025年股权融资规模暴增251%后，港股市场依 ...

在经历2025年股权融资规模暴增 251% 后，港股市场依然火热，目前仅排队IPO的公司已超过300家。 "总结港股市场2025年的表现可以用风生水起，那展望2026年就是涛声依旧"。1月15日，高盛亚洲（除日本 外）股票资本市场主管王亚军对券商中国记者等表示，年初至今异常繁忙。他还提到，国际资本已大幅回流， 目前头部国际长线资金（含美资、欧资及亚洲基金）对港股IPO项目的参与率已跃升到85%—90%。 目前，多数机构都研判港股股权融资活跃态势会持续。而对于IPO对港股流动性的影响，受访人士指出，应该 区分结构性问题与阶段性现象。好的IPO不仅不会抽走流动性，反而会吸引更多国际资本进入。 从"风生水起"到"涛声依旧" 2025年，港股股权融资市场实现爆发式增长。据Wind数据，融资总额达6122亿港元，同比增幅高达250.91%。 其中IPO市场更是重回全球首位，117家企业合计募资2858亿港元，同比增长224.24%。 "港股2025年的势头会持续下去。"王亚军表示，如果用风生水起来总结港股2025年的表现，那么展望2026年可 以用"涛声依旧"一词，虽然同比增速可能难以匹敌2025年，但IPO和再融资的 ...

在经历2025年股权融资规模暴增251%后，港股市场依然火热，目前仅排队IPO的公司已超过300家。 "总结港股市场2025年的表现可以用风生水起，那展望2026年就是涛声依旧"。1月15日，高盛亚洲（除 日本外）股票资本市场主管王亚军对券商中国记者等表示，年初至今异常繁忙。他还提到，国际资本已 大幅回流，目前头部国际长线资金（含美资、欧资及亚洲基金）对港股IPO项目的参与率已跃升到85% —90%。 目前，多数机构都研判港股股权融资活跃态势会持续。而对于IPO对港股流动性的影响，受访人士指 出，应该区分结构性问题与阶段性现象。好的IPO不仅不会抽走流动性，反而会吸引更多国际资本进 入。 从"风生水起"到"涛声依旧" "港股2025年的势头会持续下去。"王亚军表示，如果用风生水起来总结港股2025年的表现，那么展望 2026年可以用"涛声依旧"一词，虽然同比增速可能难以匹敌2025年，但IPO和再融资的规模都将维持在 较高水平。 这几乎也是市场的共识。尤其是对2026年港股的IPO市场，多家市场观察机构预判2026年募资规模会超 过3000亿港元。驱动力则主要来自港交所政策利好、中概股回流及AH两地上市热潮、 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a high and then a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding above 4100 points, while major indices like the Shenzhen Component and Northbound 50 closed with small gains but long upper shadows [1] - The market saw active trading, with daily trading volumes frequently hitting historical highs, and weekly trading volume reaching a record 17 trillion yuan [1] Fund Flows - Significant inflows of leveraged funds continued despite market adjustments, with net financing purchases exceeding 91.3 billion yuan for the week, marking a five-month high, and the financing balance reaching 2.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record for nine consecutive days [2] - The computer industry attracted over 12.3 billion yuan in net financing purchases, while electronics and telecommunications received 10.3 billion yuan and over 9 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Major sectors like defense and non-bank financials saw net outflows of over 24.3 billion yuan and 10.8 billion yuan, respectively [2] Chip Sector - The chip sector saw multiple instances of end-of-day buying, with the sector index hitting historical highs in 7 out of the last 10 trading days [3] - Companies like *ST Chengchang and Liou Co. experienced significant price increases, with *ST Chengchang hitting 128.98 yuan per share, the highest price for any ST stock [3] - Reports indicate that major chip manufacturers AMD and Intel have sold out their server CPU production for the year, leading to planned price increases of 10%-15% [3] Power Industry Outlook - The power equipment sector has shown strong performance, with indices for ultra-high voltage, grid equipment, smart grids, and energy storage reaching historical highs [4] - The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on technological innovation and new power system construction [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that investments in global digital infrastructure and energy systems driven by AI could reach 5 trillion dollars over the next decade, with power grid equipment being a primary beneficiary [4]

由创业板中成长风格突出、业绩增长较高、预期 盈利较好流动性好的50只股票组成,电力设备、 医药生物、通信行业合计占比约60% | | 创业板 | 创业板中盘 | 创业板成长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指数 | 200指数 | 指数 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 1.0% | 2. 6% | 1.7% | | 指数滚动 市盈率 | 43.1倍 | 116.6倍 | 41.8倍 | | 滚动市盈率 分位 | 41. 7% | 该指数2023年 11月15日发布 | 48. 7% | | 跟踪该 | 创业板ETF | 创业板200ETF | 创业板成长ETF | | 指数的ETF | 易方达 | 易方达 | 易方达 | | | (159915) | (159572) | (159597) | | S | 创业板指数 | | | 国创业极中中值天、流切性好的100只股崇狙战, 战略新兴产业占比较高,电力设备、通信、电子 行业合计占比近60% 创业板中盘200指数 H 由创业板中市值中等、流动性较好的200只股票组 成. 反映创业板市场中盘代表性公司的整体表现, 信息技术行业占比超40% ...

近日，中国科学技术大学联合团队在新型半导体材料研发上取得重大突破，首次在二维离子型软晶格材料中，实现了可编 程、原子级平整的"马赛克"式异质结的可控构筑。该技术克服了传统工艺易破坏软晶格结构的难题，为研发高性能发光与 集成化器件开辟了全新路径。 | | 上证科创板50 | 上证科创板100 | 上证科创板 | 上证科创板成长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成份指数 | 指数 | 综合指数 | 指数 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 2.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | | 指数滚动 市盘率 | 175. 3倍 | 219.2倍 | 233.6倍 | 208. 8倍 | | 滴随后窗率 分位 | 97.4% | 该指数2023年 | 该指数2025年 | 该指数2022年 | | | | 8月7日发布 | 1月20日发布 | 11月4日发布 | | 跟踪该指数 | 科创50ETF | 科创100ETF | 科创综指ETF | 科创成长ETF | | 的ETF | 易方达 | 易方达 | 易方达 | 易方达 | | | (588080) | (588210) ...

1月16日，A股市场整体下跌。截至收盘，上证指数收报4101.91点，下跌0.26%；深证成指收报14281.08点，下跌 0.18%；创业板指收报3361.02点，下跌0.2%。两市合计成交30262.32亿元，较上一交易日增加1207.36亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出近240亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出106.45亿元，尾盘净流出38.37亿元，全天净流出238.85亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-16 | -238.85 | -106. 45 | -38. 37 | -133. 83 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225.52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504.74 | -71.84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | ...

1月16日，A股市场整体下跌。截至收盘，上证指数收报4101.91点，下跌0.26%；深证成指收报14281.08 点，下跌0.18%；创业板指收报3361.02点，下跌0.2%。两市合计成交30262.32亿元，较上一交易日增加 1207.36亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出近240亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出106.45亿元，尾盘净流出38.37亿元，全天净流出238.85亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-16 | -238.85 | -106. 45 | -38. 37 | -133. 83 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225. 52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504.74 | -71.84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 9 ...