Core Viewpoint - The global butadiene market outlook for the four months post-2025 is pessimistic, driven by increased supply from new facilities and the end of refinery maintenance seasons [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The butadiene market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to a surge in supply, with traders seeking to shift cargo from Europe and the US to higher-priced Asian markets [1] - Despite a decline in global butadiene prices this year, an arbitrage window has opened, prompting European shipments to Asia [1] - The price differential between Rotterdam and the Chinese market for butadiene is projected at $270.50 per ton for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - New butadiene production facilities in Asia, such as the 140,000 tons/year facility by Lotte Chemical in Indonesia and ExxonMobil's new ethylene complex in Huizhou, are expected to further pressure the market [1] - The anticipated increase in US butadiene supply in the second half of 2025 is due to the end of refinery maintenance, with at least two shipments expected each quarter [2] - The average price of butadiene in the US Gulf Coast for the first half of 2025 is reported at 43.88 cents per pound, a 15.7% decrease from the second half of 2024 [2] Group 3: Regional Market Trends - The European butadiene market is expected to remain weak through the fourth quarter, with traders closely monitoring shipments to Asia [2] - Internal demand in Europe continues to be sluggish, despite several downstream facilities planning maintenance [2] - A slow recovery in butadiene demand is anticipated after buyers return from holidays in early September, but overall market weakness is expected to persist due to ongoing global supply pressures [2]