国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：地缘加剧，偏强运行 | | • | 本周期多数顺丁橡胶装置维持高负荷运行，仅山东个别顺丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。此外，浩普新材料、浙江传化顺丁橡胶装置预计3月将进行检修。周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期内多数装置正常运行，山东益华顺丁橡胶装置负荷略降，振华新材料维持降负运行。下周期主流顺丁橡胶装置暂无较大变动，产能利用率预计仅微幅 下降。 （隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，。周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率环比上周期明显提升，上周期正值春节假期，多数企业停产放假，产能利用率处于年内低点。节后多家轮 | | 需求 | | 胎企业在2月22日（正月初六）至2月24日（正月初八）陆续复工，个别企业在2月19日（正月初三）复工，排产处于逐步 ...

成文日期：2026年2月13日 报告周期:周报 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) a成橡胶期货周报 一、行情回顾 本周（2026年 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日）上海期货交易所丁二烯橡 胶期货主力合约呈现先上涨后回落，周五收于周内低点的走势。该 合约于 2 月 9 日以 12765 元/吨开盘、盘中最高触及 13175 元/吨, 最低下探至 12490 元/吨，截至 2 月 13 日收盘报 12505 元/吨，较 上周五收盘下跌 285 元/吨。周五持仓 14990 手，持续减仓。 二、现货市场情况 1. 产业链价格变动 本周丁二烯现货价格呈现先扬后抑走势，2 月 9 日现货价为 1472.20 美元/吨，随后连续三日上涨,一于２月 11 日达到 1504.74 美元/吨的周内高点、之后小幅回落、2 月 13 日报收 1477.92 美元/ 吨,较周初小幅上涨 0.39%。 苯乙烯作为丁二烯橡胶的主要原料，本周价格波动下行，从 2 月 9 日的 1111.37 美元/吨跌至 2 月 13 日的 1093.95 美元/吨,累计 下跌 1.57%、对丁二烯橡 ...

| 盗角业务资格:证监许可 2012 31- | 9 国贸易员 | 日博 带 参考 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | 份格号: F0251 % | | | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 在临近的"两会"政策利好预期的支撑下,股指预计以偏强震荡 | 为主。策略上,股指期货中长线多头建议继续持有。 | | | | | | | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国债 | 震荡 | 本央行利率决策。 | | | | | | | | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | 震荡 | 第四十 | 短期铜价震荡运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | | | | | | | | 震荡 | 价,短期铝价震荡运行。 | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：广发期货研究 证监许可【2011】1292号 赖众栋 Z0023571 2026年2月26日 星期四 成本端国内丁二烯短期检修计划量较少，国内供应处于高位，但下游合成橡胶企业开工率较高，对丁二 烯需求形成一定支撑，且节后丁二烯港口库存仅小幅累库，净进口下降预期兑现中，预计短期丁二烯震 行情导读：2月26日，由于春节后顺丁橡胶库存大幅累库，使得BR大幅回落，截至发稿，合成橡胶期货 主力合约BR2603跌超3%。 驱动分析一：顺丁橡胶开工率与库存均高位运行，BR上方承压 隆众数据统计显示，截至2026年2月25日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在5.35万吨，较春节前大幅增长1.96万 吨，环比+57.68%。大幅累库的主要原因为：（1）春节假期期间物流及下游放假等因素共同影响，样 本生产企业库存大幅增长，且假期横跨两结算周期，贸易企业开单压力亦有提升，库存水平延续上涨； （2）顺丁橡胶开工率高位运行。从生产毛利来看，目前顺丁橡胶生产毛利为-300元/吨附近，尽管处于 亏损状态，但亏损幅度不足以使得顺丁橡胶生产企业主动减停产。另外，从基差来看，自2025 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 13045 | -95 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10540 | -4346 | | | 合成橡胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) -25 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 17540 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 12800 东(日,元/吨) | 350 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR900 ...

jis 加安期货 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/25 | 品种 | | 类别 | 指标 | 1/26 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13265 | 13020 | 12715 | 12505 | 13140 | 635 | 120 | | | | | 持つ量 | 91654 | 24037 | 21758 | 14990 | 14886 | -104 | -9151 | | | | STIT | 成交量 | 747469 | 198743 | 127485 | 152173 | 106030 | -46143 | -92713 | | | | | 仓単数量 | 27520 | 36910 | 36910 | 39310 | 39870 | 560 | 2960 | | | | | 虚实比 | 16.65 | 3.26 | 2.95 | 1.91 | 1.87 | ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 635 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13140 | 14886 | 338 | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 65 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -20 | 17540 | 560 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

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2026 年 02 月 12 日 合成橡胶：节前震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 13,020 198,743 | 12,860 195,331 | 160 3412 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 24,037 | 25,458 | -1421 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,288,417 | 1,261,013 | 27404 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -420 | -260 | -160 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -225 | -80 | -145 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 12,350 | 12,300 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | ...