Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous impact of the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene within the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, further reducing supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 18,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 16,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 65,209 lots, a decrease of 7,028 lots. The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse was 24,980 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 1,415 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 112.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.21 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 17,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,450 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 2,580 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil was 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: April 1, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volume, inventory, and profit margins of BR and BD, providing data support for market participants to understand the market situation [4] Grouped Key Points BR Market - **Price and Trading Metrics**: The BR主力合约收盘价 was 17,350 on March 31, down 375 from the previous day and up 550 from the previous week. The持仓量 was 72,237, down 14,968 from the previous day and 2,428 from the previous week. The成交量 was 683,189, down 117,690 from the previous day and up 85,438 from the previous week [4] - **Inventory and Basis**: The仓単数量 was 48,740, down 60 from the previous day and up 890 from the previous week. The虚实比 was 7.41, down 2 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. The顺丁基差 was 650, up 375 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The丁苯基差 was 850, up 175 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4] - **Spread and Inter - Variety Metrics**: The 05 - 06 spread was 195, with a change of -120 from the previous week. The 06 - 07 spread was 290, with a change of 40 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was -1,005, up 180 from the previous day and down 430 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was -3,745, up 135 from the previous day and down 255 from the previous week [4] - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 700 from the previous week. The传化市场价 was 17,700, down 350 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The齐鲁出厂价 was 19,000, up 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR东北亚 was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR东南亚 was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The现货加工利润 was -2,254, up 408 from the previous day and 1,159 from the previous week. The进口利润 was -850, unchanged from the previous day and with a change of -1,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,677, unchanged from the previous day and down 568 from the previous week [4] BD Market - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 17,700, down 400 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The江苏市场价 was 17,850, down 250 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The扬子出厂价 was 18,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week. The CFR中国 was 2,580, unchanged from the previous day and up 280 from the previous week. The乙烯裂解利润 was -8 on March 30, and data for March 31 was not available. The碳四抽提利润 on March 27 was 6,749, and data for March 31 was not available. The进口利润 was -2,451, down 250 from the previous day and 2,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,601, up 1,946 from the previous day and 9,309 from the previous week. The丁苯生产利润 on March 27 was 88, and data for March 31 was not available. The ABS生产利润 on March 24 was -1,659, and data for March 31 was not available. The SBS生产利润 on March 27 was -1,535, and data for March 31 was not available [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 contracts are bullish, with an overall view of being bullish in a volatile manner [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1][5] - **Intraday view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][5] - **Core logic**: The US is trying to ease financial market tensions and boost risk appetite. There are ongoing military conflicts between the US and Iran, and the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract maintained a bullish - in - volatile trend on Tuesday night, and is expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][7] - **Intraday view**: Bullish in a volatile manner [1][7] - **Core logic**: The sharp rise of synthetic rubber futures is driven by the continuous increase in the price of upstream raw material butadiene. Geopolitical disturbances in Northeast Asia and the concentrated reduction of cracking units in Japan and South Korea have tightened the supply of butadiene, and the inventory at East China ports has been decreasing. The strong rise in the raw material end has been directly transmitted to the synthetic rubber futures market. The synthetic rubber futures maintained a bullish - in - volatile trend on Tuesday night and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene rubber plant's scheduled inspection has further reduced supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate, but some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the futures price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,350 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 375. The open interest of the main contract is 72,237, a decrease of 14,968. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 24,980 tons, a decrease of 30 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are all 18,050 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 112.78 US dollars/barrel, and the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 18,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil is 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.95 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons, and the trader's inventory is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces, and the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. Industry News - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "oscillating" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating", with the synthetic rubber part being "oscillating and slightly bullish" [4]. 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the overseas market is focused on India and Thailand's final sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. In the domestic market, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a supply - demand structure that is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support for Zhengzhou sugar, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber has a mixed fundamental situation. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, but demand drag from some semi - steel tire enterprises and high inventory in Qingdao suppress prices. The market still has a bullish sentiment due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, and NR performs stronger than RU. Synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. High raw material costs and geopolitical conflicts keep the price rising, and it may continue to oscillate upwards in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Market Conditions - SR605 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.42%, and 5431 yuan/ton at night. SR609 contract closed at 5467 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.36%, and 5464 yuan/ton at night [1]. - ICE raw sugar's main contract was at 15.54 cents/pound yesterday, with a daily decline of 1.33% [1]. Important Information - Guangxi's white sugar spot transaction price was 5446 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. Guangxi's sugar - making group's quotation range was 5430 - 5510 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Yunnan's sugar - making group's quotation was 5280 - 5340 yuan/ton, with some up 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar factories was 5690 - 5860 yuan/ton, with individual prices up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - making season to mid - March, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 billion tons (2.21%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%). The cumulative sugar production was 402.5 million tons, an increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have stopped production, and the remaining 27 are expected to stop in the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April [1]. - From March 27th to 30th, 10 more sugar mills in Guangxi stopped production. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The white sugar warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 16,862 yesterday, a daily increase of 520 [1]. Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar rose and then fell. The market focuses on India and Thailand's sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. If oil prices remain high or rise, raw sugar may have more upside potential [1]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar rose first and then fell. The 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, and the domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support. Technically, it is in an upward channel but faces pressure and may oscillate in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily observe Zhengzhou sugar and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market Market Conditions - As of March 30th, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 17,725 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64% [4]. Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 79.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of rubber blocks in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 29th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%. The general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38% [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,400 yuan/ton, 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,035 US dollars/ton (equivalent to 14,087 yuan/ton in RMB), and 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,695 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was 17,900 - 18,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were stable or slightly decreased. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market fell 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: It was consolidating at a high level. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supported raw material prices, but some semi - steel tire enterprises' production cuts dragged down overall capacity utilization. High inventory in Qingdao suppressed prices. However, due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, the market still had a bullish sentiment, and NR performed stronger than RU [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR was in an upward channel and was consolidating at a high level due to long - position reduction. High raw material costs and frequent butadiene export news increased the raw material cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Although downstream procurement was cautious, the price may still rise in the short term under geopolitical conflicts [4]. Trading Strategy - Partially take profits on NR long positions; hold BR long positions [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely during the day, and the fundamentals support the price. Geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase the volatility of intraday trends, and the trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. It is recommended that investors manage risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 05 contract of butadiene rubber, the closing price decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 17,725 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 278,976 lots to 800,879 lots, the open interest decreased by 14,951 lots to 87,205 lots, and the trading value decreased by 26,775,680,000 yuan to 7,128,557 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 315 to 475, and the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 decreased by 65 to 100 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) remained unchanged at 17,900 yuan/ton, 18,000 yuan/ton, and 18,000 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1502) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton, and the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 18,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream prices in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 18,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 45.5718%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased by 206 yuan/ton to 21,246 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to - 2,746 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - From March 12 - 18, 2026, the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline. The total sample inventory decreased by 6.33% compared with the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% week - on - week [2]. - As of March 25, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 2.58% compared with the previous period. Due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of butadiene rubber deepened significantly, leading to some device load - reduction or shutdown. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3].

Report Overview - The report is a synthetic rubber morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 31, 2026 [2][3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On March 30, the closing price of the BR main contract was 17,725, a daily decrease of 115. The open interest was 87,205, a daily decrease of 14,951. The trading volume was 800,879, a daily decrease of 278,976. The warrant quantity was 48,800, a daily decrease of 950. The long - short ratio was 8.93, a daily decrease of 1 [4] - The basis of BR (compared to spot) was 275, a daily increase of 115. The 05 - 06 spread was 100, a daily decrease of 65. The 06 - 07 spread was 235, a daily decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was - 1,185, a daily increase of 145. The NR - BR spread was - 3,880, a daily increase of 225 [4] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 900. The Transfar market price was 18,050, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 850. The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, unchanged from the previous day and the week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 250. CFR Southeast Asia was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 352 [4] Profit Situation - The spot processing profit was - 2,662, a daily increase of 102. The import profit was - 850, a daily increase of 3. The export profit was 1,677, a daily decrease of 3 [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,100, a daily decrease of 100, with a weekly increase of 100. The Jiangsu market price was 18,100, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 200. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and the week [4] - CFR China was 2,580, a daily decrease of 20, with a weekly increase of 280 [4] Profit Situation - The ethylene cracking profit was 17 (data for March 27, data for March 30 was not available). The carbon - four extraction profit data for March 30 was not available. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 6,150, a daily decrease of 210, with a weekly decrease of 80 [4] - The import profit was - 2,201, a daily increase of 159. The export profit was - 345, a daily increase of 343 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was - 13, a daily decrease of 100. The ABS production profit data for March 30 was not available. The SBS production profit was - 1,655, a daily decrease of 120 [4] Data sources for the report are Mysteel and Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber has significantly deepened losses, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, resulting in a decline in supply. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Towards the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see, while paying attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main contract is 87,205 lots, a decrease of 14,951 lots; the 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 25,010 tons, a decrease of 570 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 560 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 112.57 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.56 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 1,143 US dollars/ton, an increase of 41.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,400 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 99.64 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 5.16 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days. As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuates slightly. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that oil prices are experiencing high volatility, with downstream chemical products continuing to pass on price increases. This indicates a strong correlation between oil prices and chemical product pricing [1]. - Short-term fluctuations in oil prices have led to a cautious stance in the downstream sector, with a shift from inventory replenishment to a wait-and-see approach. This has resulted in weaker transaction volumes for petrochemical products [6]. - In the medium term, low inventory levels in the downstream sector suggest potential for price increases as demand recovers. If oil prices stabilize at high levels, the elasticity of price increases is expected to gradually materialize [6]. - Long-term trends indicate an optimization of the industry structure and a contraction in supply, leading to improved profitability in refining [6]. Company-Specific Summaries - **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)**: Projected EPS for 2026 is 3.02 CNY, with a PE ratio of 13.59 and a strong buy rating [2]. - **Hengli Petrochemical**: Expected EPS for 2026 is 1.35 CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.85 and a strong buy rating [2]. - **Rongsheng Petrochemical**: Anticipated EPS for 2026 is 0.43 CNY, with a PE ratio of 28.40 and a strong buy rating [2]. - **Guanghui Energy**: Forecasted EPS for 2026 is 0.35 CNY, with a PE ratio of 19.96 and a strong buy rating [2]. - **Tongkun Co., Ltd.**: Expected EPS for 2026 is 1.28 CNY, with a PE ratio of 14.13 and a strong buy rating [2]. Industry Data - The total market capitalization of the oil and petrochemical industry is approximately 61,086.24 billion CNY, with 50 listed companies [3]. - The industry has shown strong performance over the past year, with absolute returns of 49.0% over 12 months and relative performance of 29.7% [4]. - Recent data indicates that Brent crude oil prices are at 112.6 USD/barrel, while WTI prices are at 99.6 USD/barrel, reflecting a significant increase in oil prices compared to previous periods [12].