| 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （01合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 10,270 114,069 | 10,395 131,155 | -125 -17086 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 68,735 | 70,323 | -1588 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 588,418 | 678,682 | -90264 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 230 | 105 | 125 | | | 月差 | BR12-BR01 | | -30 | 0 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,000 | 10,050 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 10,200 | 10,250 | -50 -50 | | | | 华南顺丁 | （民营） | 10,250 | 10,300 | -50 | | | | 山东顺丁市场价 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

示 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 -50 714 962 708 进口利润 493 ୧୧୧ -43 利润 79 38 -1091 -1523 -1302 -1343 出口利润 -1264 188 838 1450 1400 113 苯生产利润 1375 1563 ABS生产利润 -414 #N/A #N/A -79 #N/A #N/A -302 -390 SBS生产利润 145 -220 -390 -345 45 -125 BR主力合约盘面概览 160000 16000 140000 120000 14000 1000000 12000 A NAND 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 J -BR基差 IIIi 11400 1200 11200 1000 11000 800 10800 600 10600 400 10400 200 10200 10000 10/1 11/1 5/1 12/1 7/1 -200 9800 -400 9600 -600 视觉 II导动 12台钓 01号钓 02台约 -800 ·2024 ·2025 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10395 | 10 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 70323 | 2076 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2960 | -20 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 10450 | -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10450 | -100 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 105 | 东(日,元/吨) -10 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10395 | 10 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 70323 | 2076 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2960 | -20 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10450 | -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10450 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) | | 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) | | 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 105 | -10 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日 ...

合成橡胶周报 广发期货有限公司 研究所 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 2025年11月22日 张晓珍 从业资格：F0288167 投资咨询资格：Z0003135 周度观点 供需提振有限，且成本端难以维持上行走势，预计BR上方承压 ◼ 观点：成本端广西石化新装置投产，且库存高位运行，进口量预期较高，市场供应充裕，需求面支撑有限，预计丁二烯持续上行动能不足。供应端振华顺丁装置重启运行，但茂名 石化将逐步进入检修流程，短期供应变动有限。需求端受到整体订单不足、出货放缓影响，轮胎企业检修增加，需求端偏弱运行。总体来看，供需提振有限，且成本端难以维持上 行走势，预计BR上方承压。 ◼ 策略： 1. 单边：BR2601维持逢高空思路，关注10800附近压力 2. 套利：多RU2601空BR2601 BR周度 核心变化 ◼ 市场概述：本周成本端丁二烯行情跌至年内低位后，部分买盘陆续跟进，且短期上行震荡吸引部分下游"抄底"心态出现，成交气氛有所好转，使得丁二烯止跌反弹，成本面支撑 逐步走强，但下半周天然橡胶以及商品大跌，拖累BR，使得 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 11 56 万吨（ 1 75% ），产能利用率为 72 53 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 92 万吨（ 3 88% ），产能利用率为 72 64 %； | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化、镇海炼化等装置维持停车状态，其余装置暂无新的明显变化，广西石化稳定释放产量， | | | | 影响总产量仍有增加；顺丁橡胶方面，振华新材料高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，茂名石化顺丁装置预计下周 ...

2025 年 11月 24 日 胶:估值区间内弱势运行 杨鉉汉 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 (01合约) | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) 成交量(手)。学 | 10. 385 167. 355 | 10.520 113, 304 | -135 54051 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 68, 247 | 72, 012 | -3765 | | | | 成交额(万元) | 877.067 | 600. 368 | 276699 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 115 | ్లు 130 | -12 | | | 月差 | BR12-BR01 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁(民营) | 10, 050 | 10. 150 | | | | | 华东顺丁(民营) | 10, 250 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：估值区间内弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：估值区间内弱势运行 供应 • 周期内浙江石化延续停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.92万吨，较上周提升0.11万 吨，环比+3.88%，产能利用率72.53%，环比提升2.72个百分点。周期内浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启。下周期预计茂 名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。（隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低，全钢胎及半钢胎部分样本企业周期内存检修现象，拖拽样本企业产能利用率下行，检修主因为整体订 单不足、出货放缓，另有样本企业设备改造，影响整体产能释放。预计下周期，随着检修企业装置排产逐步恢复，轮胎样本企业产能利用率将呈现恢 复性提升状态。然整体需求提升空间有限， ...