1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has opportunities for band - trading long. The market logic for bulls is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The main reasons for bears are the mediocre demand reality, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - increasing policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [18] - The EUDR's postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive but with limited positive expectations. [11] - The 62,000 - ton rubber reserve release in September 2025 is judged to be a short - term negative and a medium - term positive. [12] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and reduce the processing profit of butadiene, and the raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [22] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In October 2025, the rubber price rose significantly due to factors such as the expected increase in rainfall in Thailand, positive expectations for China - US talks, and the EUDR's positive impact. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase decreased, and the price oscillated and corrected. In November 2025, there were short - buying opportunities during the price correction. [10] - The market expects subsequent storage plans. The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht per cup of rubber. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that in Yunnan is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [18][58] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended period, and the core driving logic being the low spread. If the future demand expectation improves, the spread will widen, and repeated band - trading operations are recommended. [24] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept, which is related to the enthusiasm of rubber farmers and the rubber price. [58] 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [31][36][39] 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are normal, without special values or points of concern. The black commodities and rubber generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand. [47][50][54] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate of tire factories is 65.46% (0.12%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. The sales of trucks and commercial vehicles are at a low level but are slowly improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [18][67][70] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern. In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The production and export data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are also provided. [75][89][105]