胶价震荡偏强 橡胶周报 2025/08/16 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 20250704月报中，我们重点指出：反内卷政策影响巨大，判断构成非常重要的宏观利多。 ◆ 我们观察，当下环境和商品价格和2016年商品的上涨有类似之处。 ◆ 2016年商品上涨，上涨品种和上涨幅度都非常可观，影响面巨大。 ◆ 中期看多，因胶价跌幅巨大，抑制供应，目前筑底阶段，宜择机翻多（20250704的橡胶月报我们进行了重点提示，市场反馈积极）。 ◆ 20250725 我们认为，胶价短期上涨较大。需防止胶价冲高回落风险。 ◆ 20250801 胶价大幅回吐涨幅。 ◆ 20250802 尽管胶价格大幅下跌，我们提示对胶价走势并不悲观。 ◆ 中期看，我们认为，胶价多比空好。 ◆ 短期看，可能上涨较多，需要震荡整理。 橡胶RU要点小结：胶价震荡偏强 ◆ 短期看 工业品整体涨跌气氛和国内需求政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].