橡胶做多赔率较好 橡胶月报 2025/10/10 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 ◆ 20250829 中期仍然看多。未来7-14天泰国暴雨山洪风险增加，降雨量大，供应利多。 ◆ 20250906 中期仍然看多。未来3-14天泰国暴雨山洪风险增加，降雨量大，供应利多。(走势不及预期)。 ◆ 20250913 中期仍然看多。在早评中择机提示回调做多的机会。 ◆ 20250916-20250919,连续4个交易日早评提示降雨量预报边际降低，利多边际减弱风险。 ◆ 20251009 整体利空释放比较充分。后续跟踪宏观动态和天气动态成为重要的价格驱动因素。 ◆ 胶价整体偏低，做多赔率好，胶价上涨空间也不错，如果有上涨事件驱动，胶价反弹的概率比较大。 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 泰国降雨量动态 ◆ 20250704月报中，我们重点指出：反内卷政策影响巨大，判断构成非常重要的宏观利多。 ◆ 我们观察，当下环境和商品价格和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices due to significant price drops suppressing supply and the current bottom - building stage. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices may have risen too much and need to consolidate through oscillations. There is a risk of prices rising and then falling back [11]. - The market logic for bulls is the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year. The main reason for bears is the dull demand reality and the expected decline in demand due to the US tariff - increasing policy [13]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and decrease processing profit. The maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the 20250704 monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a huge impact and was a significant macro - bullish factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price increase in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices, but in the short term, beware of the risk of prices rising and then falling back. After the sharp decline on August 2, 2025, the outlook for rubber prices is not pessimistic [11]. - The key points of rubber RU: prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. Pay attention to the overall rise - fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies in the short term. The market logic for bulls and bears is different, and it is recommended to focus on the long - RU2601 and short - RU2511 spread trading strategy [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [26]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, etc. are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [42]. - Black commodities and rubber follow a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [45]. 3.4 Cost Side - The general view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [53]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, and vice versa [53]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate data of tire factories shows that the full - steel tire operating rate is 63.09% (2.09%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but is expected to decline slightly in the future [63][66]. 3.6 Supply Side - Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are still significant differences in the mid - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase in production. There are also market expectations of a small - scale rubber purchasing and storage plan [13]. - In May 2025, rubber production and export data showed different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions [104][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].