1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has opportunities for band - trading long. The market logic for bulls is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The main reasons for bears are the mediocre demand reality, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - increasing policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [18] - The EUDR's postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive but with limited positive expectations. [11] - The 62,000 - ton rubber reserve release in September 2025 is judged to be a short - term negative and a medium - term positive. [12] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and reduce the processing profit of butadiene, and the raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [22] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In October 2025, the rubber price rose significantly due to factors such as the expected increase in rainfall in Thailand, positive expectations for China - US talks, and the EUDR's positive impact. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase decreased, and the price oscillated and corrected. In November 2025, there were short - buying opportunities during the price correction. [10] - The market expects subsequent storage plans. The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht per cup of rubber. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that in Yunnan is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [18][58] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended period, and the core driving logic being the low spread. If the future demand expectation improves, the spread will widen, and repeated band - trading operations are recommended. [24] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept, which is related to the enthusiasm of rubber farmers and the rubber price. [58] 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [31][36][39] 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are normal, without special values or points of concern. The black commodities and rubber generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand. [47][50][54] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate of tire factories is 65.46% (0.12%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. The sales of trucks and commercial vehicles are at a low level but are slowly improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [18][67][70] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern. In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The production and export data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are also provided. [75][89][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity price increase, with significant increases in both the variety and magnitude of rising commodities and a wide - reaching impact [10]. - The report is bullish on rubber prices in the medium - term. As rubber prices have fallen significantly, supply has been curbed, and currently, the market is in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [10]. - The odds of going long on rubber prices are favorable, and if there are positive events, the probability of a rubber price rebound is relatively high [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti -内卷 policy had a significant impact and was considered a major macro - level bullish factor [10]. - On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen significantly in the short - term, and there was a risk of a pullback [10]. - On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back most of their gains [10]. - From September 16 - 19, 2025, the report continuously reminded of the risk of a weakening bullish impact due to a marginal decrease in rainfall forecasts [10]. - On October 9, 2025, it was considered that most of the bearish factors had been released, and subsequent tracking of macro and weather dynamics would be important price drivers [10]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber reserve release on September 25, 2025, was judged to be a short - term bearish factor but a medium - term bullish factor as it was a replacement reserve [11]. - The postponement of the EUDR to 2026 would lead to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which was a short - term bearish factor for demand [13]. - The market's bullish logic is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The bearish reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - In the short - term, rubber prices fell due to the 62,000 - ton reserve release and the EUDR postponement but have now stabilized. In the medium - term, the report is bullish on rubber prices, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [57]. - The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is generally considered to be around 13,500 yuan [57]. - The cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber in China is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [57]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When rubber prices are high, farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when prices are low, maintenance is reduced, and the cost decreases [57]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber prices follow a seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, prices declined earlier, and in 2023, rubber prices were lower than the industry's expectations and below farmers' costs for an extended period [30]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [35]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [38]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index are generally normal, with no special values to note [45][49][53]. 3.5 Demand End - The operating rate of full - steel tire factories was 43.96% (- 21.76%) due to the National Day holiday, and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the expected demand has weakened [18]. - The sales of trucks and commercial vehicles are gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [66][69]. 3.6 Supply End - Supply is generally normal, with no special values to note. In August 2025, rubber production was 1,078,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. Cumulative production was 6,856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.76% [104]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to come on - stream in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter will create upward price elasticity [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices due to significant price drops suppressing supply and the current bottom - building stage. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices may have risen too much and need to consolidate through oscillations. There is a risk of prices rising and then falling back [11]. - The market logic for bulls is the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year. The main reason for bears is the dull demand reality and the expected decline in demand due to the US tariff - increasing policy [13]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and decrease processing profit. The maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the 20250704 monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a huge impact and was a significant macro - bullish factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price increase in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices, but in the short term, beware of the risk of prices rising and then falling back. After the sharp decline on August 2, 2025, the outlook for rubber prices is not pessimistic [11]. - The key points of rubber RU: prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. Pay attention to the overall rise - fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies in the short term. The market logic for bulls and bears is different, and it is recommended to focus on the long - RU2601 and short - RU2511 spread trading strategy [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [26]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, etc. are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [42]. - Black commodities and rubber follow a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [45]. 3.4 Cost Side - The general view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [53]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, and vice versa [53]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate data of tire factories shows that the full - steel tire operating rate is 63.09% (2.09%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but is expected to decline slightly in the future [63][66]. 3.6 Supply Side - Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are still significant differences in the mid - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase in production. There are also market expectations of a small - scale rubber purchasing and storage plan [13]. - In May 2025, rubber production and export data showed different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions [104][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].