Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a strong dollar and progress in US-EU trade negotiations impacting demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in gold prices [2] - Central bank buying provided support for gold, while hedge funds increased their bullish bets on gold to the highest level since April, with net long positions rising by 19% to 170,868 contracts [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration has contributed to a 27% increase in gold prices this year [2] Group 2: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The European Commission indicated that a trade agreement with the US is imminent, although EU member states have approved counter-tariffs on US goods in case negotiations fail [3] - President Trump stated that he would meet with the EU on Sunday, estimating a 50% chance of reaching an agreement, which faces about 20 "sticking points" [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Market expectations suggest that stable labor market data will support the Federal Reserve in maintaining interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% in the upcoming meeting [4] - President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve for significant rate cuts during a surprise visit, emphasizing that the US should have the lowest interest rates [4] - Former Fed officials expressed support for a rate cut, while some analysts viewed Trump's visit as a political maneuver to increase pressure on the Fed [4] Group 4: Geopolitical Situations - In the Israel-Palestine conflict, Hamas officials reported positive progress in negotiations for a ceasefire, indicating readiness to finalize an agreement [5] - Turkey's foreign minister expressed optimism about coordinating a summit between Russia and Ukraine, suggesting a potential transitional resolution to the conflict [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's decision, non-farm payroll data, and trade talks between China and the US, are expected to influence market trends in the second half of the year [6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is likely entering a downward phase, with a focus on the triangular consolidation pattern and potential breakout directions [7][11]