股票投资成功的关键之一是要使自己变得强大。 有这样一个故事，一位擅长搏击的选手参加了锦标赛，他自信满满地认为自己一定能夺得冠军。在最终 的比赛中，他的对手实力与他相当，两人难分胜负，便都拼尽全力互相攻击。在这位搏击高手打斗的中 途，他发现自己无法找到对手招式中的破绽，而对方的攻击却总能顺利地突破他的防守漏洞。我们可以 预料到比赛的结局，这位搏击高手在比赛中惨败于对手，同时也失去了获得冠军奖杯的机会。 可见在一个领域中成为高手还不行，还要更加精进，成为没有漏洞的高手。 冯仑在《野蛮生长》中曾经提道："决定伟大的有两个最根本的力量，时间就是其中之一，时间的长短 决定着事情或人的价值，决定着能否成就伟大。" 书中还举了个喝水的例子，大意是说，在一般情况下端杯子喝水只是一种普通的行为；但是如果你能保 持端杯喝水的姿势长达50个小时，就可以被认为是一种行为艺术；如果你保持这个姿势超过5000个小 时，那你就成为雕塑了。伟大都是通过时间的磨炼而实现的。 如果你想要从事一件伟大的事业，第一步就是要考虑你要投入多少时间。如果只有一年的时间，那你几 乎不可能取得伟大成就，而如果你有20年的时间，就有可能成就伟大。那又怎样度过这 ...

没错，12月下旬的白银市场可谓"疯狂"。现货白银从11月中旬的50美元/盎司左右，直线拉升至突破83美元，创下历史盘中新高。虽然之后小幅回调，目 前企稳在76美元附近，但今年累计涨幅已超181%，堪称"银色奇迹"。 这一波行情背后，是多重因素共振的结果：市场对2026年美国降息的预期升温、工业与投资需求旺盛、白银供应持续短缺，以及它刚刚被美国列为 "关键 矿产"——这给本就紧张的市场，又平添了一层政策上的想像空间。 一场横跨市场的"视觉预言" 有趣的是，白银这轮走势，最近竟被加密圈拿来"看图说话"。分析师 Cantonese Cat发布了一张走势对比图：把狗狗币过去6个月的走势，与白银三周前3 天的走势放在了一起。结果发现，两者图形高度相似。 如果这个"分形类比"真的成立，狗狗币可能正站在一轮长达数年的上行起点上。按照他的推演：当前这6个月的K线，可能已是周期的底部；之后将再走8 根6个月K线，时间跨度约4年，其中7根上涨、仅1根下跌；唯一一根下跌K线可能落在2027年上半年； 当白银在年末上演史诗级行情，一路从每盎司50美元冲上83美元的历史高位时，无数人都在问：狗狗币会是下一个吗？ 当时狗狗币价格在约 0 ...

1、美联储动态（关键焦点） 12月30日（周二）03:00公布12月货币政策会议纪要，投资者将探寻下次降息时间线索及政策制定者对通胀的担忧程度，以明确2026年降息次数。 美国总统特朗普将提名新任美联储主席，新任人选大概率比鲍威尔更鸽派，且需在分歧严重的FOMC中争取共识；前达拉斯联储主席卡普兰建议鲍威尔任期 结束后退出理事会。 2、下周重要数据（北京时间） 周一：美国11月成屋签约销售指数月率（23:00）、至12月19日当周EIA原油库存+12月达拉斯联储商业活动指数（23:30）。 本周，黄金价格呈现强势上涨态势。周一，金价以一根大阳线直接突破前期高点；周二延续上涨趋势，收出阳线；周三进入震荡整理，收出十字阴线；周四 圣诞假期休市；周五金价再度上行并创下新高，最终收阳。从周线级别来看，本周收出一根实体饱满的大阳线，彰显强劲上涨动能。 日内实时交易策略方面，周一至周二期间，策略呈现盈亏交替格局，整体表现欠佳；周三的交易策略斩获5连胜，为本周盈利奠定坚实基础；周四市场停盘 休市；周五策略情况为3胜1损1保本。综合全周交易结果，整体继续保持稳定盈利。 一、基本面 进一步细分3浪内部结构：3998至4132/4 ...

本文每周初更新发布梳理各级别走势分析和预期主次节奏：做有品质的三方服务黄金月线图（超长线） Inception: 2025-8-3 从技术上，本轮黄金上涨的启动力来自于2020-2023年的超大型横盘突破；从基本面，长期伴随着全球 局势的不断恶化，包括地缘、经济等，促使全球资本相当大程度地追求避险，这又包括多国央行大举买 入黄金，促成了这一轮超级大牛市。从波浪上，依然将现阶段定义为某个级别的3浪（连续性极好，不 预测终点），后市还会出现4浪回调和5浪上涨。 8月黄金还会再次冲击3400以上，这是上破3500的机会，但如果再次失败则可能引发快速大回调来重新 积蓄上冲人气（超长线涨势不变）。Update: 2025-8-31 8月月线图收出较大的阳线，且几乎是光头阳线。这是一个局部上涨动能再次占优的信号，那么接下来 的9月显然会尝试冲击新高。对于月线图而言，之前几个月的高位盘整算不上清晰的回调过程，那么至 今依然认为还在3浪过程中，并不是4浪后的5浪。Update: 2025-10-5 9月月线图继续收出超大的阳线，充分表现出上涨动能的强劲，整体上涨趋势保持得非常完好，思路上 只能以多头思路对待，稍微一个上冲就会 ...

周三，A股继续缩量盘整，主要指数均探底回升，深证成指翻红，根据交易所数据，上证指数跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指跌0.02%， 沪深300跌0.14%，科创50跌0.03%，北证50跌0.85%。 沪深两市2341股上涨，2658股下跌，172股持平；合计成交额1.78万亿元，较前一交易日缩量约1254.48亿元；大盘主力资金净流出335.68亿元；盘面上，海 南自贸、白银、地产、零售、免税等概念涨幅居前。 责任编辑：山上 风险提示：此文章不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 针对当前行情，徐小明分析，多数指数收出长下影线的小星线，短期波动率很低，市场在很窄幅的空间里波动了十多个交易日，这种波动操作难度比较大。 近期都是建议多看少动，观望为主，目前这个策略不变，需要耐心等待市场出现清晰而确定的低点信号。 "4月7日之前的调整周期是121个交易日，之后的上升周期是148个交易日，这种周期级别对应的调整级别不会特别小。这波调整到低点一共用了6个交易日， 跌了200个点。然后反弹至今用了13个交易日，反弹了100个点。速度的差异性明显， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that after the head - and - shoulders bottom breakdown, there was a significant decline. Wait for the short - term stabilization and subsequent repair market. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rebounded and then declined this week, and the short - term still awaits stabilization. TL2603's trend weakened significantly after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom. From the perspective of the wave theory, the decline starting from November 5th is considered a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [2]. - In the treasury bond futures data tracking, the main contracts are changing. The 2603 contracts' cash - and - carry arbitrage still needs to wait. Treasury bond futures declined overall this week, with the trading activity rising. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts increased overall, with a decline in TL. The IRR decreased for all except TL. Currently, the overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis - **1.1 Previous Trend Review**: TL's repair was poor after the breakdown, and there was a significant decline in the middle of the week. T and TL declined significantly in the middle of the week. TL2603 rebounded on Monday after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom last week but was under pressure at the lower edge of the trading area in mid - early November. After the rebound, it declined again. On Wednesday, there was a significant increase in positions and a decline. It rebounded slightly on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 touched the 5 - day moving average on Friday and then declined, and the current form remains weak [7]. - **1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook**: After the significant decline in the middle of the week, the trends of T and TL are weak, and the decline has暂缓. The focus is on the opportunity to participate in the upward repair of the market. T2603 broke below the 60 - day line on Wednesday and stood back on it and was supported on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 declined significantly after rebounding to the lower edge of the upper box on Monday. The decline of T2603 and TL2603 since November 5th has shown three waves. It is inclined to be a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. Even if it is a new downward wave since November 5th, a 4th - wave rebound can still be expected. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [12]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Tracking - Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on November 28th, the closing prices of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.745, 107.940, and 114.49 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, - 0.160, - 0.300, and - 0.88 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors [3][15]. - As of November 28th, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased overall, with a decline in TL. The CTD net bases of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were - 0.01, - 0.03, - 0.01, and - 0.14 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRRs corresponding to the CTDs of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.51%, 1.57%, 1.49%, and 1.84% respectively. Except for TL, all declined. The overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [19]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts increased overall this week [20].

Group 1: Metal Market Outlook - Copper is forecasted to strongly rise, with prices expected to exceed $12,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 and an average price of $12,075 per ton for the year, driven by severe supply disruptions and resilient global demand growth of 2.6% [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise to $3,000 per ton in the first half of 2026, supported by copper price increases, but will face downward pressure later due to supply growth from Indonesia [2] - Zinc is predicted to decline, with prices expected to fall to $2,650 per ton by Q4 2026, due to oversupply and stagnant global demand growth around 1% [2] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile, averaging around $15,300 per ton in 2026, influenced by ongoing supply surplus and Indonesian policy [2] Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Price Dynamics - The seasonal demand peak in August and September is expected to drive up prices, particularly for methanol, while winter supply constraints may further support price increases [6][8] - Extreme price movements are often triggered by significant fluctuations in raw material costs, such as coal, which directly impact methanol production costs [9] - Port inventory and import levels act as regulators for price differentials, with excess imports potentially suppressing price increases even during peak demand seasons [10] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is leaning towards bearish, with structural opportunities primarily arising from supply-demand mismatches in various commodities [28][32] - The black metal sector shows a clear divergence, with iron ore being a strong long opportunity while rebar and other materials may present short opportunities [33][35] - The energy sector is supported by rising crude oil prices, while rubber is identified as a potential short opportunity due to market dynamics [37] Group 4: Economic and Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a new bullish phase, driven by economic recovery and improved corporate earnings, potentially leading to a significant capital influx [21][24] - Historical patterns suggest that major bubbles require low interest rates, a strong profit effect, and a lack of investment opportunities in other major markets [22] - The structural changes in China's economy, with a decreasing reliance on real estate and a growing manufacturing sector, are anticipated to support stock market strength [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is experiencing a bull market supported by strong fundamentals, particularly in manufacturing, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer spending [3][4][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market is the best-performing market globally this year, with expectations of profit-taking as the year ends [6][74]. - The stock market has diverged from real estate prices and ten-year government bond yields since January, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][31]. - The bull market is characterized by a significant wave structure over the past 30 years, with the fifth wave expected to be the most promising [6][70][73]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Industrial profits are expected to recover, which will positively influence the Shanghai Composite Index [7][58]. - The manufacturing sector remains robust, with the contribution of real estate to GDP declining from over 30% to around 10% [32][34]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes economic construction, a strong industrial system, and revitalizing consumption, with little focus on real estate [49][54]. Group 3: Inflation and Deflation - The long-term deflationary pressures in upstream industries are affecting downstream consumption, necessitating policy measures to alleviate these issues [8][14]. - The implementation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River project is seen as a significant step towards addressing overcapacity and price competition [12][16]. - There is an expectation that upstream price and consumption sentiment will begin to recover in the next 3 to 6 months [10][23]. Group 4: Commodity Trends - Gold has experienced a significant price increase, indicating potential historical changes in the market, with expectations for industrial metals to follow suit [35][47]. - The U.S. is projected to issue approximately $2.1 trillion to $2.2 trillion in debt by 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [39][48]. - The current pricing of industrial metals reflects a pessimistic outlook similar to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a potential for recovery [43][46].

在金融市场，无论是股票还是商品，其价格走势都有着其自身的规律。如果市场运行是完全随机的，那么参与起来无异于 抛硬币式的赌博，没有人能长期稳赢。正是因为市场价格运行有规律，所以才有人可以做到长期稳定的获利。下面介绍一 个技术分析方法来捕捉，如果你总感到很迷茫，觉得市场总是没有规律可循，可以进行尝试。 市场价格运动的走势就是一个上涨波段和一个下跌波段交替运行、周而复始的。技术分析中经典的波浪理论所说的主升浪 和调整浪（主跌和反弹），以及双头、双底、三角形等形态的局部，其本质也是如此。波浪理论把结构分为5浪和3浪，实 际上也可以把所有结构都拆分为3浪，5浪结构的趋势，可以看成是两个3浪结构的叠加。这样一来问题会变得更简单，即 只要一个3浪结构完成后就会出现一波或大或小的反向运动。 3浪结构持续的时间对应着未来反向运动的级别，例如出现一波年级别的3浪结构上涨后，即使是后面能走出5浪结构，也 要先走一个月线级别的调整。而如果这个年级别的3浪结构上涨已经完成，那么对应后面的调整也是年度级别的。通过代 表深市所有股票走势的深综指可以发现很多清晰的大型3浪结构，08-15年走出一个跨度达到8年的大型3浪结构，然后就是 长达3 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values, highlighting the potential investment opportunities in these financial instruments [1][4][6]. - Specific convertible bonds such as Zhongjin Convertible Bond and Hengbang Convertible Bond are noted for their strong redemption prices and conversion values, indicating a favorable investment outlook [1][4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market conditions and the performance of convertible bonds as they approach their last trading dates, which could present strategic investment opportunities [1][6]. Group 2 - The article reflects on the current market sentiment, suggesting that the recent adjustments in the market are likely due to short-term policy impacts rather than fundamental changes [7][8]. - It mentions that the overall market valuation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is not overly expensive, indicating potential for future growth [7]. - The commentary suggests a cautious but optimistic approach, encouraging investors to wait for stabilization before gradually increasing their positions in the market [8][9].