下游加工制品低利润因素
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PP:短期止跌,中期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PP market will stop falling in the short term and oscillate weakly in the medium term. Trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low profits in downstream processing products contribute to the downward pressure on the PP trend. However, recent factors such as the deterioration of US - Russia relations driving up oil prices, expected trade - war negotiations, and short - term supply reduction have led to a short - term market rebound. But the long - term downward drivers are difficult to fundamentally resolve [2]. - The PP trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6699, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 262,100, and the position changed by 247. The 01 - contract basis was - 149 (compared to - 112 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 69 (compared to - 57 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6470 - 6590 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6550 - 6630 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations. Morning futures' weak oscillation dampened the trading sentiment in the spot market. Some upstream petrochemical factory prices slightly decreased, weakening cost support. However, the tight supply of some homopolymer injection - molding and medium - high - melt copolymer products supported traders' quotes. Although the afternoon futures rebounded, downstream buyers remained cautious, with general inquiries and average transaction levels [2]. Market Condition Analysis - Multiple factors including trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low profits in downstream products have put downward pressure on the PP trend. But recent events such as the deterioration of US - Russia relations driving up oil prices, expected trade - war negotiations, and short - term supply reduction have led to a short - term market rebound. In the long run, the downward drivers are difficult to solve fundamentally, resulting in a short - term stop of the decline and a medium - term weakly oscillating pattern [2].