聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-27 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7402元/吨（-21），PP主力合约收盘价为7046元/吨（-28），LL华北现货为7300 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7000元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为-102元/吨（+51）， LL华东基差为-82元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-46元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开工率为78.2%（+0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为254.2元/吨（-78.3），PP油制生产利润为-325.8元/吨（-78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为25.7元/吨（-62.5）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-39.0元/吨（+5.2），PP进口利润为-551.6元/吨（+5.3），PP出口利润为35.9美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场分析 中海石 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 | | | | 63.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.39%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.58 美元 | | | | 至 67.22 美元/桶，跌幅 2.3%。SC2510 以 486.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.9 元/桶，跌幅 2.19%。由于美国计划自周三起对印度商品加征 | | | | 的关税提高一倍至 50%，预计印度国有和私营炼油厂将减少近期 | | | | 对于俄罗斯石油的采购。当地时间 25 日，美国国土安全部发布的 | | | | 50%关税的计 一份草案通知，概述了美国政府将对印度产品征收 | | | | 划。通知称，加征的关税将适用于"自 2025 年 8 月 27 日美国东 | | | 原油 | 部夏令时间 0 时起，报关提货或从仓库提货的印度商品"。10 月， | 震荡 | | | 印度从俄罗斯进口的石油数量将较第一季度的平均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market shows a rotation pattern with mild adjustments, and investors are recommended to take protective and income - earning measures in stock index futures [2][3][4]. - The bond market sentiment continues to warm up, and there are opportunities for short - term light - position buying in Treasury bond futures [5][6]. - Gold prices are strong due to the weakening of the US dollar, and silver prices are affected by industrial products [7][9][10]. - The shipping index shows a downward trend, and the container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile [12][13]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends based on their respective fundamentals, with some being in a state of shock and some having clear directional expectations [14][17][19][22][24][28][31][33][36][40]. - The steel market may have a high - level shock pattern, and there are opportunities for long - position attempts; the iron ore market may rebound, and the coking coal and coke markets can be considered for long - position operations [41][43][44][46][47][50][51][52]. - The price trends of agricultural products vary. The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, the price of live pigs is weakly volatile, the corn price is weakly oscillating, and the sugar price is in a state of high - level or bottom - grinding oscillation [53][56][57][58][59][60][61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a differentiated performance. The main stock index futures contracts also showed differentiation. The policy of "Artificial Intelligence +" was introduced, and there were international trade and tariff news. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options in September to protect long positions and sell out - of - the - money put options in December to obtain time - value income [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank market funds were abundant. It is recommended to buy Treasury bond futures on dips in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold prices strengthened due to the weakening of the US dollar caused by the US tariff threat and the challenge to the "independence" of the Federal Reserve. Silver prices were affected by industrial products. It is recommended to use a bull - spread strategy for gold and hold long positions in silver above $38 [7][9][10]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot quotations of shipping companies are slowly falling, and the shipping index is declining. The global container shipping capacity is increasing, and the demand data shows certain characteristics. The futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price increased slightly. The Fed's dovish stance improved the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply and demand showed a "weak reality + stable expectation" state. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 78,500 - 80,500 [14][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation. The supply was in excess, and the futures price dropped significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 3,000 - 3,300 and consider short - position layout in the medium term [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price was stable. The macro - environment improved, and the demand in the peak season was expected to be verified. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 20,400 - 21,000 [19][20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price was stable. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand showed marginal improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 20,000 - 20,600 [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price decreased slightly. The supply was loose, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable. The cost was supported, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,400 [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price decreased. The market sentiment was weak, and the supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to wait and see [37][38][40]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price decreased. The cost was less supportive, and the profit decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased in August. It is recommended to try long - position operations [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price decreased. The global shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price was weakly volatile. The supply increased, and the demand decreased in the short term. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips and conduct long - coking - coal and short - coke spreads [47][48][50]. - **Coke**: The futures price was weakly volatile. The seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the eighth - round was proposed. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was in a high - level fluctuation. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips and conduct long - coking - coal and short - coke spreads [51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume changed. The US soybean data showed certain trends, and there were international trade news. The long - term outlook is positive [53][54][56]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price was weakly volatile. The breeding profit decreased, and the average weight increased. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position layout in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price was weakly volatile. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The short - term is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term supply pressure is significant [59][60]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 15 - 17 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be weakly oscillating [61].

2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：基本面偏中性，跟随宏观运行 | 6 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：近月仓单和出口压制盘面 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期偏弱，中期震荡格局 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：原油成本走弱 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：新仓单出现，盘面开始翻空 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：反转下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：或延续弱势震荡 | 29 | | 短纤：高位震荡 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期 产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜整体需求不及预期，膜类开工偏低。当前LL交割品现货 价7350（+50），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-52，升贴水比例-0.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.4万吨（+5.9），偏空； • 4. ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月27日 | | | | 上游价格 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 涨跌幅 | 8月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 8月25日 | 单位 | Ж跌 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2.3% | 布伦特原油(10月) | 67.22 | POY150/48价格 | 68.80 | -1.58 | 6845 | 0.6% | 6885 | 40 | 美元/桶 | -2.4% | WTI原油(10月) | -1.55 | 7140 | 25 | 0.4% | 63.25 | FDY150/96价格 | 7115 | 64.80 | | | 7 | 0.2% | ਦੇਰੇਤੇ | 1.2% | DTY ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/26 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷现 | CP预测合 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 | 主力基差 | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 9 | 4490 | 4390 | 4480 | 563 | 521 | 67 | 515 | 4890 | 7800 | -162 | 638 | | 2025/08/2 0 | 4520 | 4390 | 4480 | 565 | 536 | 69 | 519 | 4890 | 7780 | -144 | 136 | | 2025/08/2 1 | 4520 | 4398 | 4500 | 573 | 5 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，花生、原木、20 号胶小幅上 涨；跌幅方面，氧化铝、焦煤跌超 3%，工业硅、集运欧线、焦炭、多晶硅跌超 2%， 玻璃、纯碱、苯乙烯跌近 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约跌 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 地缘担忧重又燃起，8月25日美国总统特朗普威胁两周内若未达成协 议，将对俄罗斯实施"大规模制裁"；特朗普表示，两周期限过后，他将 做出决定，"是实施大规模制裁、大规模关税，还是两者兼施——抑或是 不作为，只说'这是你们自己的战争'"。美国立场重回强硬路线，这是 当前原油价格走强的主要原因。与此同时，乌克兰对俄罗斯的袭击仍未停 止，最新报道是用远程无人机袭击俄罗斯波罗的海乌斯季卢加港。 板块逻辑： 化工品仍在"反内卷"的提振下，整体格局延续强势。化工品种表现 最好的是聚酯链，因聚酯不仅有政策的提振，也有产业自身的好转，表现 在终端的需求预期提升，也表现在PTA企业积极减产挺价。纯苯和苯乙烯 链条表现则差强人意，尤其是苯乙烯，港口库存周度攀升，库存绝对值位 于五年同期最高。聚烯烃在8月25日日盘也出现补涨，烯烃自身产业未看 到较大变化，而韩国石脑油裂解的减产，未来石化的强制检修对让市场对 低位的化工品开始试多。乙二醇开工高企的格局下仍然实现周度去库， 五年同期最低的港口库存对期价有支撑。 原油：供应压力延续，反弹持续性预计有限 沥青：地缘溢价再起，沥青期价走高 高硫 ...