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片仔癀(600436):片仔(600436):渠道升级显效,费用优化助力盈利修复
Huajing Securities· 2025-09-18 10:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 275.64, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price of RMB 201.47 [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure, with a reported revenue of RMB 5.379 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decline of 4.81%, and a net profit of RMB 1.442 billion, down 16.22% year-on-year. However, the core product, Pian Zai Huang, continues to show steady growth, supported by channel structure optimization [5][12]. - The report highlights that the company's core product for liver disease treatment achieved revenue of RMB 2.896 billion in 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.70%, despite a decline in gross margin due to rising raw material costs [6][10]. - The company is actively enhancing its channel structure and terminal sales, with a strategy to deepen its core position in the market, which is expected to support long-term performance recovery [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, the company reported a revenue of RMB 5.379 billion, a decrease of 5% compared to 1H24, and a net profit of RMB 1.442 billion, down 16% year-on-year. The gross margin was reported at 40.46%, a decline of 4.3 percentage points [11][12]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025E and 2026E, with expected revenues of RMB 10.550 billion and RMB 10.636 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 16% and 23% from previous estimates [14][16]. - The report projects that the sales revenue for liver disease medications will grow by 10% in 2025E and 11% in 2026E, driven by the strong performance of the core product [13][16]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in an updated target price of RMB 275.64, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 54x for 2025, higher than the average of comparable companies [16][17]. - The valuation reflects the company's focus on optimizing its operations and enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives in production, inventory management, and sales [16][17].