Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its World Economic Outlook report, projecting global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the forecasts made in April of this year [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts a global economic growth of 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 [1] - These projections represent an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous estimates from April [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3329, showing limited movement after a slight rebound on July 29, where it peaked at $3333.93 and closed at $3326.35, marking a 0.36% increase [1] - The US dollar index rose by 0.30% to 98.91, reaching a high of 99.14, which is the highest level since June 23, potentially capping gold's rebound [1] - The US stock market saw declines on July 29, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46% to 44632.99, the S&P 500 down 0.30% to 6370.86, and the Nasdaq down 0.38% to 21098.29 [1] - The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is expected to conclude with interest rates remaining unchanged, with investors looking for signals regarding future rate cuts [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump reached a significant trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods and including a $600 billion investment from the EU into the US [4] - This agreement surpasses a previous deal with Japan, which involved a similar 15% tariff on $550 billion worth of goods [4] - US and Chinese officials concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm, focusing on macroeconomic policies and trade relations [5] Economic Outlook - The IMF updated its World Economic Outlook, slightly raising global growth forecasts for the next two years, citing uncertainties due to US trade policies [6] - The IMF predicts global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [6] - The report highlights that global economic activity is distorted due to expectations of significant tariff increases [6] Market Data - Investors are awaiting the release of US ADP and GDP data, which are expected to significantly impact short-term market trends [7]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its World Economic Outlook report, projecting global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the predictions made in April of this year [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Global Economic Growth Projections** - The IMF forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 [1] - These projections represent an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous estimates released in April [1]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Hold long positions in crude oil, and prices may challenge $80 per barrel again [1] Core View - The report provides information on international crude oil futures prices, API inventory data, and various industry news, suggesting a potential upward trend in crude oil prices [1][4] Detailed Summary International Crude Oil - WTI September crude oil futures rose $2.50 per barrel, or 3.75%, to $69.21 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $2.47 per barrel, or 3.52%, to $72.51 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures rose 12.80 yuan per barrel, or 2.49%, to 527.50 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member countries to fully comply with quotas [2] - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3%, the US growth forecast to 1.9%, and the China growth forecast to 4.8% [3] - Trump suggested the EU buy $1 trillion of US energy during his term, and the EU agreed to buy $750 billion [4] - US API crude inventories for the week ending July 25 were 153.9 million barrels (previous -57.7 million barrels, expected -250 million barrels); API Cushing crude inventories were 46.5 million barrels (previous 31.4 million barrels); API gasoline inventories were -173.9 million barrels (previous -122.8 million barrels, expected -114.7 million barrels); API refined oil inventories were 418.9 million barrels (previous 348 million barrels, expected -90.6 million barrels) [4] - Trump said he was not worried about oil if sanctions were imposed on Russia [4] - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Trump accepted that natural resources would not face tariffs [4] - Kuwait's oil minister was optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market [4] - Traders expected OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery [4] - The EU's sanctions on India's Nayara Energy led to a reduction in its crude oil production [4] - On July 29, China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened, and due to the small price adjustment amount, gasoline and diesel prices remained unchanged [4] - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures, and the two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock market opened higher but saw a pullback, with the Dow Jones in the red while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remained positive [1] - The healthcare sector in the US experienced a collective decline, with Novo Nordisk down over 19%, Merck down over 8%, and Eli Lilly down over 5% [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Li Auto's stock dropped nearly 7% after initially rising over 6%, coinciding with the launch of its first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, which is priced between 321,800 to 369,800 yuan [3][5] - The launch of the Li i8 positions it in the mid-to-large luxury family vehicle market, competing with models like the Aito M9, Tesla Model X, and NIO ES8 [5] - The decline in Li Auto's stock also negatively impacted other new energy vehicle stocks, including Xpeng Motors and NIO, which saw significant drops [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its World Economic Outlook report, slightly raising global economic growth forecasts for the next two years [6] - The IMF projects global economic growth rates of 3% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [6] - The report indicates that emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at 4.1% and 4% for the next two years, with adjustments of 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points [6] - China's actual GDP annual growth rate is projected to reach 6%, exceeding expectations, with the IMF raising its 2025 growth forecast for China by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, indicating a fragile global economy influenced by U.S. trade policies and other uncertainties [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% and 4% in the next two years, up by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast [1] - Developed economies are projected to grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points for both years [1] Factors Influencing Economic Outlook - The upward revision in forecasts is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs [1] - The report highlights that economic activity is distorted due to expectations of significant tariff increases [1] Risks to Economic Stability - The IMF warns that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities pose risks to global economic stability [1] - It emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to mitigate uncertainty and encourages practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, indicating that the world economy remains fragile due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and other factors [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from its April forecasts [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% and 4% in the next two years, up by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous predictions [1] - Developed economies are projected to grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with both figures raised by 0.1 percentage points [1] Factors Influencing Economic Outlook - The upward revision in forecasts is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs, which has distorted global economic activity [1] - The IMF warns that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities pose risks to global economic stability [1] Recommendations for Economic Cooperation - The IMF emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to mitigate uncertainties and encourages practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]