短期供需小幅收紧，期价震荡整理 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5781元/吨（-12），丙烯华东现货价5850元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5725元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差69元/吨（+12），丙烯华北基差-158元/吨（+101）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR200美元/吨（-2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR30美元/吨（-6），进口利润-368元/吨（+16），厂内库存46010吨（-550）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率38%（+0.69%），生产利润-25元/吨（-20）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（-2%），生产利润372 元/吨（+230）；正丁醇开工率80%（+2%），生产利润439元/吨（+7）；辛醇开工率85%（+3%），生产利润806元/吨 （+107）；丙烯酸开工率80%（+0%），生产利润322元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+0%），生产利润-469元/吨（-27）； 酚酮开工率79%（+3%），生产利润-902元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 丙烯日报 | 2025-12-30 供应端，丙烯产量整体延续高位，上游开工稳定回升，短 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene has weakened, leading to a decline in its price. Supply is supported by some PDH device maintenance and restart delays, while demand is weak due to price drops and cost pressure. The cost support is weakened by falling international oil prices and propane prices, but the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply needs attention [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Include figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Include figures on the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [32][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Include figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]