Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene has weakened, leading to a decline in its price. Supply is supported by some PDH device maintenance and restart delays, while demand is weak due to price drops and cost pressure. The cost support is weakened by falling international oil prices and propane prices, but the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply needs attention [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Include figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Include figures on the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [32][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Include figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - Supply - side overall start - up increased month - on - month, PDH device start - up rate rebounded, some major manufacturers had maintenance plans, and the expected reduction in the market supply supported propylene prices. Downstream start - up showed a mixed trend, with the start - up of phenol - acetone increasing rapidly, and the demand had a small - scale phased support. The cost of propylene decreased as crude oil weakened and propane prices declined. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation's impact on the crude oil end [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,491 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price in East China was 6,400 yuan/ton (+75), and in North China was 6,540 yuan/ton (+240). The basis in East China was - 91 yuan/ton (+35), and in North China was 49 yuan/ton (+200). The propylene start - up rate was 74% (+1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan was 200 US dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 96 US dollars/ton (-6), the import profit was - 286 yuan/ton (+0), and the in - plant inventory was 34,420 tons (+830) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder start - up rate was 38% (+1.48%), production profit was - 160 yuan/ton (-150); propylene oxide start - up rate was 74% (+1%), production profit was - 271 yuan/ton (-162); n - butanol start - up rate was 89% (-7%), production profit was - 267 yuan/ton (-99); octanol start - up rate was 77% (-1%), production profit was 448 yuan/ton (-172); acrylic acid start - up rate was 79% (-1%), production profit was 406 yuan/ton (-53); acrylonitrile start - up rate was 74% (-2%), production profit was - 625 yuan/ton (-210); phenol - acetone start - up rate was 77% (+4%), production profit was - 672 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The overall start - up increased month - on - month, PDH device start - up rate rebounded, some major manufacturers had maintenance plans, and the market supply was expected to tighten [2] - Demand side: Downstream start - up showed a mixed trend, the start - up of phenol - acetone increased rapidly, and the demand had a small - scale phased support [2] - Cost side: Crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down propane prices, leading to a downward shift in propylene cost support [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 3.4 Directory Details - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, East China and North China basis, etc. [7][10][12] - **Propylene production profit and start - up rate**: Involves figures like the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, etc. [17][24][29] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Covers figures such as the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, etc. [32][34] - **Propylene downstream profit and start - up rate**: Contains figures like PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, etc. [40][45][50] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]