Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US-Vietnam trade agreement reduced punitive tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US from 46% to 20%, while a 40% tariff will be imposed on products transiting through Vietnam from China[5][6] - Vietnam's exports to the US reached $70.91 billion in the first half of 2025, with a trade surplus of $62 billion, marking a 29.1% year-on-year increase[6] Regional Competition and Economic Shifts - Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, potentially including similar transit trade tax clauses[2][5] - The competition among emerging Southeast Asian economies will shift from "tariff differences" to domestic demand potential and technological density[3][12] Challenges for Vietnam - Vietnam faces pressure to fill domestic industrial gaps and explore new trade routes, with stronger domestic demand in Indonesia and a more complete industrial chain in Malaysia[5][12] - The reliance on low-value exports to the US may weaken Vietnam's economic growth momentum, as domestic consumption and investment play limited roles[9][10] Risks and Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of future trade agreements may lead to a shift in traditional assembly and transit models, pressuring Vietnam's local industries[3][11] - If Thailand and Malaysia secure lower tax rates in negotiations with the US, Vietnam's short-term competitive advantages may diminish[12]