东西经济差异
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中国生育密码:南北看文化,东西看钱包
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-12 09:15
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the geographical differences in fertility intentions in China, highlighting a cultural divide between the north and south, and a socio-economic divide between the east and west [5][7]. Summary by Sections Cultural and Economic Differences - Cultural differences in China are often framed in terms of north-south contrasts, such as dietary preferences and transportation methods, while economic development is more frequently discussed in terms of east-west disparities [5]. - The eastern coastal regions have advanced significantly in economic openness and modernization, while the western inland areas lag behind due to geographical and historical constraints [5]. Fertility Intentions - The study investigates how geographical differences reflect in fertility-related indicators, specifically ideal and intended number of children, revealing a clear north-south and east-west divide [7]. - Ideal number of children is measured by asking respondents about the most desirable number of children for a family, while intended number of children reflects personal plans for future childbearing [10][11]. Methodology - The research employs a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method to estimate fertility intentions at the county level, addressing the challenge of data representation at finer geographical scales [15]. - The model predicts fertility intentions for unique demographic groups and adjusts these predictions based on actual population structures to provide more accurate county-level estimates [16]. Findings - The study reveals that the differences in ideal and intended number of children within provinces are comparable to those between provinces, indicating that key factors influencing fertility intentions operate at more localized levels [16]. - The research illustrates the complexity of fertility intentions when viewed through the lenses of culture, economy, and geography, suggesting a nuanced understanding of demographic behaviors in China [16].