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中国生育密码:南北看文化,东西看钱包
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-12 09:15
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the geographical differences in fertility intentions in China, highlighting a cultural divide between the north and south, and a socio-economic divide between the east and west [5][7]. Summary by Sections Cultural and Economic Differences - Cultural differences in China are often framed in terms of north-south contrasts, such as dietary preferences and transportation methods, while economic development is more frequently discussed in terms of east-west disparities [5]. - The eastern coastal regions have advanced significantly in economic openness and modernization, while the western inland areas lag behind due to geographical and historical constraints [5]. Fertility Intentions - The study investigates how geographical differences reflect in fertility-related indicators, specifically ideal and intended number of children, revealing a clear north-south and east-west divide [7]. - Ideal number of children is measured by asking respondents about the most desirable number of children for a family, while intended number of children reflects personal plans for future childbearing [10][11]. Methodology - The research employs a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method to estimate fertility intentions at the county level, addressing the challenge of data representation at finer geographical scales [15]. - The model predicts fertility intentions for unique demographic groups and adjusts these predictions based on actual population structures to provide more accurate county-level estimates [16]. Findings - The study reveals that the differences in ideal and intended number of children within provinces are comparable to those between provinces, indicating that key factors influencing fertility intentions operate at more localized levels [16]. - The research illustrates the complexity of fertility intentions when viewed through the lenses of culture, economy, and geography, suggesting a nuanced understanding of demographic behaviors in China [16].
中国生育密码:南北看文化,东西看钱包
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-10 23:49
Group 1: Cultural and Economic Differences - The article highlights the cultural differences in China, particularly the North-South contrast in dietary preferences, transportation methods, and personality traits, as well as the East-West economic development disparities [1][2] - The Eastern coastal regions are significantly ahead in economic openness, industrial modernization, urbanization, and international integration compared to the Western inland areas, which face geographical and historical constraints [2] Group 2: Fertility Intentions - The research indicates a clear North-South divide in ideal number of children and an East-West difference in intended number of children, reflecting the influence of cultural and socio-economic factors on demographic behaviors [4][5] - Ideal number of children is measured by asking respondents about their perception of the ideal family size, while intended number of children focuses on individual plans for future childbirth, influenced by economic realities and personal circumstances [6][7] Group 3: Methodology and Findings - The study employs a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method to estimate county-level fertility intentions, addressing the challenge of data representation at smaller geographic scales [10][11] - The results reveal that the differences in ideal and intended number of children within provinces are comparable to those between provinces, suggesting that key factors affecting fertility intentions operate at more micro geographic or social scales [13]