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中金:维持赤子城科技(09911)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至13.5港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-01 04:01
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates an upward revision of revenue forecasts for Zhizi City Technology (09911) for 2025 and 2026 by 2% to 6.9 billion and 8.5 billion respectively, driven by better-than-expected growth in innovative business [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 revenue increased by 40% to 3.18 billion, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for 1H25 rose by 44% to 650 million, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 118% to 490 million, meeting previous profit forecast medians [2] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - Social business revenue in 1H25 grew by 37% to 2.83 billion, driven by user growth and ARPU increase; innovative business saw a significant 71% year-on-year increase to 347 million [3] - Key products SUGO and TopTop achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth, contributing nearly 50% to the social revenue; SUGO's average online duration per user increased by 17% and ARPU by 20% [3] - The company is incubating 5-6 new flagship products, which are expected to contribute over 20% to social revenue, with several anticipated to reach monthly revenue scales of 10 million USD [3] Group 3: Market Expansion - In 1H25, over 60% of high ARPU revenue came from the Middle East and North Africa, with core products in this market seeing over 60% revenue growth; the company is also exploring opportunities in Latin America, Europe, and Japan [4] - CICC expects continued rapid growth in user scale for 2025, supporting a 34% increase in social business revenue [4] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 1H25 reached 56%, an increase of 6 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in revenue-sharing ratios in social business and an increase in high-margin innovative business [5] - The company anticipates that marketing costs for new products will remain high in the short term, but plans to enhance capabilities through centralized integration and AI empowerment, which is expected to gradually release operational leverage [5]