跨境出海丨市场观察 本周看点： -与SpaceX抢海外市场，中国商业航天出海接单； -耐用品2026年策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇； -独行快，众行远：我国自动驾驶出海背后的生态共赢。 行业环境 1.与SpaceX抢海外市场，中国商业航天出海接单 关键词：商业航天,海外市场,拼车发射,发射成本,国际竞争 概要：中国商业航天企业正积极拓展海外市场，通过"拼车发射"模式降低成本并提升效率，吸 引埃及、尼泊尔、阿联酋等国际客户。国家航天局近期发布政策鼓励企业"走出去"，参与国际 竞争。尽管国内发射成本已降至5-6万元/公斤，但与SpaceX相比仍有差距。SpaceX凭借高频发 射和星链项目占据优势，并计划明年IPO，加剧全球竞争。中国企业需提升供应链稳定性、质 量透明度及国际标准适配能力，以赢得海外信任。新兴市场对多样化供应商的需求为中国企业 提供了机会，但需持续优化技术、成本和稳定性以形成差异化竞争力。 2.耐用品2026年策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 关键词：高基数,地产影响,外销拐点,内需疲弱,国补政策 概要：2025年家电与轻工制造行业表现不及沪深300，内销受国补政策减弱和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique social dynamics and market opportunities in the Middle East, particularly focusing on how Chinese companies have successfully adapted their products to meet local cultural preferences and social habits, leading to significant growth in the region's entertainment and social media sectors [3][8][12]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - The Middle East is characterized by a strong social culture, with locals frequently gathering in cafes and public spaces to socialize, especially during the cooler evening hours [3][4]. - The region has a high demand for social interaction and entertainment, which has been successfully translated into online platforms by Chinese companies [6][8]. - Users in the Middle East are highly engaged with social media, averaging 8.4 accounts per person, with UAE users reaching 10.5 accounts, indicating a strong market for social applications [8][12]. Group 2: Company Performance - Yalla and Chaozi City (赤子城) have emerged as significant players in the Middle Eastern social media market, with Chaozi City reporting a revenue growth of over 50% in 2024, reaching 5.1 billion yuan [9]. - In the first half of 2025, Chaozi City's revenue grew by 40% to 3.2 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 118% to approximately 500 million yuan [9]. - Yalla's revenue for 2024 was reported at 340 million USD (approximately 2.39 billion yuan), with a stock price increase of over 70% since the beginning of the year [9]. Group 3: Cultural Adaptation and Localization - Successful products like TopTop and Yalla have been developed through extensive local research, ensuring they align with the cultural and social habits of Middle Eastern users [6][7]. - Features such as family badges in TopTop were inspired by local customs, enhancing user engagement by reflecting cultural identity [7]. - Yalla's design is rooted in the traditional "Majlis" culture, facilitating a familiar social experience for users [7][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Entry - Entering the Middle Eastern market requires significant investment and time to build local networks, which can be a challenge for companies used to faster-paced environments [4][16]. - The market has high entry barriers, with initial costs for registration and compliance being substantial, often requiring millions to establish a presence [16][17]. - As competition increases, companies that have already established a foothold in the region are likely to perform better, making it harder for new entrants to succeed [17].

中东"遍地是黄金"，但黄金"埋得很深"。 第一次去到中东的外国人，或多或少会对这里经常满座的咖啡馆感到奇怪。深夜十一点，走进沙特利雅得的商场，中庭咖啡区依然人声鼎沸，头巾裹发、长 袍及地的当地人三五一桌聚在这里，什么也不做，只为了聊天。 "只要咖啡馆开门，晚上基本满座。"常驻迪拜的Chainbridge CTO李伟发现，中东人对于聊天的热情远远超乎外来者的想象，他们经常和家族以及朋友在晚 上聚在一起聊天。也有当地从业者感慨，这里的线下实体店，如果不带点社交属性都不好做生意。 炎热的气候塑造了这里独特的作息。夏季白天温度可达四五十度，当地人一般在日落才外出活动，晚上九点至十二点是商场、咖啡馆最热闹的时段。由于宗 教文化影响，线下娱乐选择有限，聚会聊天成了最主流的社交方式。 大约十年前，一些中国企业敏锐地捕捉到中东北非（MENA）地区这种旺盛的社交需求，并将其迁移至线上，打造出语音房、游戏社交等产品，构筑起社交 娱乐帝国。雅乐(YALA.US)和赤子城（09911.HK）是做得较大的两家。 "遍地是黄金"是中东市场广为人知的标签，但赤子城科技高级副总裁宋朋亮认为，这里的"黄金埋得很深"，对于习惯高举高打、追求速成 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on the workplace by 2025, highlighting both opportunities and challenges for job seekers and employers [5][6]. Group 1: AI and Job Market Dynamics - AI is expected to revolutionize job roles, but it also poses risks of job displacement, particularly for those in roles that can be automated [5]. - The emergence of "super individuals" in the workforce may lead to reduced job opportunities for others, as increased productivity from these individuals can displace multiple workers [5]. Group 2: Employer Branding and Recruitment Trends - There is a lack of investment in employer branding among companies, as many prioritize product performance over employee satisfaction [6]. - Companies are increasingly seeking "versatile talents" by expanding job descriptions, which may undermine the value of teamwork and specialized roles [6]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The advanced manufacturing sector is experiencing a surge in investment, particularly in robotics and 3D printing, with significant growth in talent demand [9]. - The chip manufacturing industry is accelerating its domestic production capabilities, with a reported 90% yield rate for new processes, indicating a strong push towards self-sufficiency [9]. Group 4: Employment Trends and Challenges - The article notes a structural talent shortage in various sectors, including robotics and chip manufacturing, with a reported talent gap exceeding 300,000 in the semiconductor industry [9]. - The article emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market demands and invest in employee development to remain competitive [6][9].

机构：光大证券 研究员：付天姿/杨朋沛 Dream:MergeGames》。24 年该游戏流水同比增长超过60%，24 年5 月流水近千万美金；公司计划将该 游戏的成功经验迁移到新产品，打造长生命周期爆款。2）社交电商是公司在"社交+"场景下的重要探 索。从垂直深耕阶段收购蓝城兄弟旗下蓝城大健康，到拓圈发展阶段的荷尔先生，用户群体不断丰富。 3）赤子城科技通过自研布局AIAgent 并推出AI 内容社区Aippy，积极探索AI 驱动的下一代社交娱乐形 态；短剧业务已初见成果，初步面向东南亚与美洲市场。 盈利预测、估值与评级：赤子城科技作为中国非游戏厂商出海收入榜前10 名的公司，通过精细的本地 化运营，凭借成功的"产品+国家"复制战略，实现了对新兴社交娱乐市场（尤其是中东北非地区和泛东 南亚地区）的广泛布局；此外，公司通过创新业务实现收入来源多元化，短中期收入&利润增长确定性 较高。我们预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入69.0/84.1/97.0 亿元人民币，实现归母净利润9.5/12.4/14.9 亿 元，同比增速分别为97.0%/31.3%/19.7%。公司作为出海社交龙头企业，首次覆盖，给予目标价14 ...

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities initiates coverage on Zhiyu City Technology (09911), setting a target price of HKD 14.5 and a "Buy" rating, highlighting its leadership in the overseas social sector and successful localization strategy [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhiyu City Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia [1] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 3.181 billion in H1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth, with SUGO and TopTop revenues both exceeding 100% growth [1] Group 2: Social Business Segments - The core business of the company is its mass social segment, expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy to cover diverse social needs through products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2] - The company has established operational centers in over 20 countries, with a localized team of approximately 800 people, employing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction, local execution" [2] - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers enhances the company's position in the diverse social segment, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [2] Group 3: Innovation and Growth - The company is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas, with a focus on collaborative growth [3] - The flagship mobile game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," saw over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly USD 10 million in revenue by May 2024 [3] - The company is exploring AI-driven social entertainment through its self-developed AIAgent and the AI content community Aippy, while initial results in the short drama sector are promising, targeting Southeast Asia and the Americas [3] - Revenue and profit growth are expected to be robust, with projected revenues of RMB 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion for 2025-2027, and net profits of RMB 0.95 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities has initiated coverage on Zhibocheng Technology (09911), a leading overseas social enterprise, with a target price of HKD 14.5 and a "Buy" rating, highlighting its successful localization strategy and extensive layout in emerging social entertainment markets, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhibocheng Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, primarily focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, especially in the Middle East and North Africa [2] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.181 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%, with SUGO and TopTop revenues growing over 100% [2] - The net profit for H1 2025 reached RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's core business is the mass social segment, expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy to cover diverse social products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [3] - Zhibocheng Technology has established operational centers in over 20 countries, with a localized team of approximately 800 people, employing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction and local execution" [3] - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers has strengthened the company's position in the diverse social segment, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [3] Group 3: Innovation and Growth - The company is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas, with a focus on collaborative growth [4] - The premium mobile game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has seen over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly USD 10 million in revenue in May 2024 [4] - Zhibocheng Technology is exploring AI-driven social entertainment through its self-developed AIAgent and the AI content community Aippy, while initial results in the short drama business are emerging in Southeast Asia and the Americas [4] - Revenue and profit growth are expected to be robust, with projected revenues of RMB 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion for 2025-2027, and net profits of RMB 950 million, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and diversification of Chiwan Technology, emphasizing its strong performance in social entertainment and innovative business sectors, particularly in the MENA and Southeast Asian markets [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chiwan Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the MENA region [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with SUGO and TopTop revenues growing over 100% [4]. Group 2: Social Business Segments - The core business of Chiwan Technology is its mass social business, projected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy [5]. - The company has established a localized operational team of approximately 800 people across over 20 countries, implementing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction and local execution" [5]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers has strengthened the company's position in the diverse social sector, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [5]. Group 3: Innovative Business Growth - Chiwan Technology is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas [6]. - The flagship mobile game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," saw over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly 10 million USD in revenue by May 2024 [6]. - The company is exploring AI-driven social entertainment forms through its self-developed AIAgent and has initiated short drama projects targeting Southeast Asia and the Americas [7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unemployment rate in the US rose unexpectedly to 4.6% in November, attributed to a "technical" disturbance from the government shutdown, which forced many federal employees into unpaid leave, temporarily inflating the unemployment figures [5] - Despite the rise in unemployment, the private sector showed resilience, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025 [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term, despite the increase in unemployment [5] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - The first batch of L3 autonomous driving vehicles in China has received regulatory approval, marking a potential turning point for the commercialization of advanced driving technologies [6] - The approval includes restrictions on the usage functions, regions, and entities for the L3 vehicles, highlighting significant differences between L3 and L2 level driving assistance [6] - There is optimism regarding the growth opportunities for high-level intelligent driving components, with a focus on strong performance in the Alpha+ intelligent driving and robotics sectors [6] Group 3: Company Performance - Chi Zi Cheng Technology (9911.HK) focuses on social networking services, primarily targeting users from diverse cultural backgrounds in the Middle East and North Africa [7] - The company has made significant progress in the social sector since 2022 through mergers and internal incubation, while also expanding into gaming and other innovative businesses [7] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with SUGO and TopTop revenues growing over 100% [7] - The company's net profit for the same period was 489 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.5, compared to the current price of HKD 10.54 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Chi Zi Cheng Technology, is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa [1][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 3.181 billion, and a net profit of RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chi Zi Cheng Technology has transitioned from a tool-based application to a diversified social product matrix, focusing on global social entertainment [15][16]. - The company has established a strong localized operational team with around 800 members across more than 20 countries, implementing a "China-led, local-driven" collaborative model [2][19]. Social Business Strategy - The company's core social business, which is expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, employs a "bush" product matrix strategy, including products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2][35]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions, such as Blue City Brothers, to enhance its presence in the diverse social market, with Blue City's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million [2][3]. Innovative Business Growth - The company is developing a second growth curve through innovative businesses, including premium mobile games and social e-commerce, with the flagship game "Alice's Dream: MergeGames" showing over 60% revenue growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The social e-commerce segment is expanding, with acquisitions enhancing user demographics and engagement [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 69.0 billion, 84.1 billion, and 97.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 9.5 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong localization strategy and successful "product + country" replication strategy, positioning it well in emerging social entertainment markets [4][5].