近日，知名经济学者任泽平的观点引发金融圈热议和关注。 任泽平表示，顺势而为才是真正的大智慧。天下大势，浩浩荡荡。我们每个人都是时代的产物，每个人的"漫长"一生不过是历史长河中的一个片段。人经 常沉溺于埋首具体事务而迷失方向，有时偶尔需要从忙碌交织的琐事中超脱出来，眺望一下星空，放在历史的长河中审视当下的自己。 本文提出中国经济的十大预言，希望对大家看清大势有所帮助。由于才疏学浅，智识有限，野人献曝，与你分享。看懂宏观趋势，把握投资机会，选择优 于努力。本文一万字，看完需要15分钟，只看黑体部分只需2分钟。本文为姊妹篇。 第一大预言，全球正处于大周期末期，旧秩序开始瓦解，新秩序正在重建，经济、金融、地缘、思潮等动荡加大，贫富差距、民粹主义、逆全球化、强人 政治、地缘冲突、修昔底德陷阱、国际秩序重建等现象涌现。 要理解当下中美贸易摩擦、俄乌冲突、逆全球化等局势的本质及未来，就要理解经济社会大周期背后的运行规律。 经济社会大周期的基本运行规律是： 一国经济最重要的就是要具备"生产性"，"生产性"决定竞争力，历史上的经济霸权大多经历了从"生产性"到"非生产性"的转变，这就使得霸权国家及其主 导的国际秩序有了生命周期性 ...

Core Insights - The central urban work conference has redefined China's urban strategy, indicating a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency in existing urban areas [1] - China's urbanization has seen the urbanization rate of the permanent population rise from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with urban population increasing from 720 million to 940 million, highlighting a new economic landscape [1] - The conference emphasizes a transition in urban development philosophy, prioritizing human-centered approaches, efficient resource use, distinctive development, governance investment, and coordinated efforts [2] Urban Development Strategy - The new urban development framework stresses the importance of moving from superficial growth to substantive, quality-driven development, necessitating systemic adjustments in urban planning and policies [2] - As urban population growth stabilizes, there will be a concentration of people in urban clusters, leading to some cities experiencing population decline, which poses challenges for urban governance [2] - Current economic and population policies in many cities are often contradictory, with a need to address the lack of urban residency for a significant portion of the urban population, which limits access to public services [2] Demographic Trends - Under the pressures of aging and declining birth rates, cities are increasingly competing to attract highly educated young individuals, who are now more selective in their city choices based on livability and quality of life [3] - The ongoing process of urbanization for migrant workers continues, with aspirations for better living conditions driving the demand for innovative, livable, and resilient urban environments [3]