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《时寒冰说:全球视野下的投资机会》:只有顺应趋势,才能站在风口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 09:02
近年来,"趋势"与"拐点"成为投资界最为高频的关键词。在风云变幻的时代里,个体如何站在大局中辨方向?如何在不确定性中找机会? 金融市场复杂多变,投资者如何拨开重重迷雾,寻觅机遇,挖掘出那一缕代表着希望的光线? 刚刚读完时寒冰的《时寒冰说:全球视野下的投资机会》,让我的心里豁然开朗。 这本书是时寒冰8月份刚上市的新书,书中的内容紧跟当下的时事,帮我们分析了未来很长一段时间值得去关注的趋势。 它既不像一般投资书那样止于技法,也不仅是眼前行情解读,而是试图从极具厚度的历史、资本、地缘与稀缺视角,重构一个面向未来的投资框架。 从时代背景看,这本书诞生于后疫情时代、全球地缘博弈加剧、货币宽松与通胀、产业链重塑、能源转型、大宗商品波动等叠加不确定性极强的时代。 对作者而言,这是一次用思考回应时代的尝试,也是希望给读者在未来十年、二十年里提供一个相对清晰的方向坐标。 他以货币、贸易、资源、人口、消费等关键指标为线索,深入剖析当今世界的重要趋势,比如人工智能技术崛起、新能源革命、全球产业大转移、货币体系 重构等。 他抽丝剥茧,探寻趋势产生的背景、原理与逻辑,为广大投资者揭示了黄金、白银、核电、美股、美债、中药材、小金属等领域 ...
黄金白银,彻底涨疯了!
格隆汇APP· 2025-09-29 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in gold and silver prices, driven by various market factors, including inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies, indicating a strong demand for these precious metals as safe-haven assets [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, gold futures rose by 1.35% to 866.52 CNY per gram, reaching a historical high, while silver futures surged by 3.92% to 10,939 CNY per kilogram, also breaking new records [2]. - The A-share precious metals sector increased by 3.6%, with all related stocks showing strong performance, positively impacting the non-ferrous and minor metals sectors [2]. - The trading volume for gold futures reached 287.447 billion CNY, an increase of over 50 billion CNY from the previous day, while silver futures saw a trading volume of 248.196 billion CNY, up nearly 100 billion CNY, marking a 64% increase [4][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Recent favorable news for precious metals includes the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year at 2.9%, which alleviated concerns about interest rate cuts, leading to accelerated price increases for gold and silver [8]. - Dovish statements from several Federal Reserve officials supporting potential interest rate cuts have reinforced market expectations for an accelerated easing cycle [8]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market anxiety, further driving demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with a total value of approximately 4.5 trillion USD, surpassing the 3.5 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury reserves [9]. - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.02 million ounces as of August 2025, marking a continuous increase for ten months, with a total purchase of 36 tons from January to July 2025 [12]. Group 4: Price Trends and Predictions - Gold prices have risen nearly 45% year-to-date, making it the best-performing asset among major asset classes, while silver has seen an increase exceeding 60% [15]. - Institutions have raised their price targets for gold, with expectations of reaching 4,000 USD per ounce by the end of the year, and potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to 4,500 USD or even 5,000 USD under certain conditions [18]. Group 5: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures have experienced a notable increase in trading volume, indicating heightened market interest compared to gold [20][21]. - The silver market is facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand driven by sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles, while supply constraints are exacerbated by environmental regulations and labor disputes in major producing countries [24][26]. - The current market dynamics reflect a structural phase where industrial demand and valuation recovery are driving silver prices, supported by the ongoing energy revolution and monetary easing [33].
碳酸锂期货价格波动剧烈 固态电池引发“白色石油”争夺战
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-28 13:58
南方财经记者采访多位期货分析师,了解到江西锂矿能否延续生产将在近期逐渐揭晓,而多空双方或将在各种信息驱动下激烈博弈,锂价预计呈 现宽幅震荡。 展望第四季度,碳酸锂行业去库趋势不变,向上受到高库存和套保需求的压制,向下旺季需求提供一定支撑,市场关注点仍在宁德时代枧下窝矿 区的复产节奏及另外7座矿山的生产情况。 锂电行业的煎熬期仍在持续。9月以来,碳酸锂期货主力合约价格持续在7万元—7.5万元/吨徘徊,与2022年60万元/吨的历史高位相比,跌幅超八 成。 据南方财经记者了解,由于工艺路线、工艺方法、原料来源、人工成本、能耗成本、折旧率等不一样,各家碳酸锂企业的生产成本存在较大差 异。目前生产碳酸锂主要通过三种途径,即锂辉石、锂云母和盐湖卤水提锂。不同的锂矿开采类型,加工成本差异较大。 此前,6.5万元/吨是外购矿石提锂以及南美盐湖提锂到岸的成本线,也被业内视为碳酸锂价格的平均成本线,但即便是此前被击穿平均成本线的 状态下,碳酸锂库存仍保持累库的状态,因此,部分中小厂家由于亏损面临被挤出的风险。 (原标题:碳酸锂期货价格波动剧烈 固态电池引发"白色石油"争夺战) 今年6-9月,碳酸锂期货市场呈现"急涨急跌"的剧烈 ...
永太科技15万吨/年电解液产能持续释放 锂电“打针复原”黑科技打开百亿市场空间
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-09-25 09:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth in the lithium battery sector, driven by increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, leading to a favorable pricing environment for electrolyte products [1][2]. - Yongtai Technology has a current electrolyte production capacity of 150,000 tons per year, with production gradually ramping up and sales volume increasing year-on-year [1]. - The company's lithium battery and other materials segment achieved revenue of 871 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 33.38% of total revenue, representing a year-on-year growth of 105.74% [1]. Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 6.968 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.4% [2]. - The demand for energy storage is benefiting from long-term domestic orders and the postponement of U.S. tariffs, leading to a sustained increase in demand [2]. - The introduction of new technologies, such as lithium battery "injection restoration," is expected to strengthen Yongtai Technology's market position in the lithium battery materials sector [2]. Group 3 - The new lithium additive, trifluoromethyl sulfonyl lithium, can extend battery life significantly and is currently being produced in small quantities for leading lithium battery companies [3]. - If 50% of the global lithium battery electrolyte demand in 2025 requires the addition of 3-5% of this new additive, the demand could reach approximately 30,000 to 50,000 tons, with a market potential exceeding 10 billion yuan [3].
巴菲特的天神之眼究竟是什么
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-25 04:11
巴菲特对比亚迪的投资"完美收官"。 这场17年的缘分、世界投资史上的经典案例,实现了多方共赢的局面:巴菲特大概得到了38倍的投资回报,比亚迪也因为获得来自资本的鼎力支持——其 中的价值和意义,不仅局限于那些美元。 对早已成长为巨头企业的比亚迪来说,此时告别巴菲特无损其行业地位,自然表现得从容体面。就像官方发言人所回应的那样,"股票投资,有买有卖, 这是很正常的事情"。 那么在这十多年的缘分里,不正常的事有没有呢?显然也是有的。以投资不愿投资不成熟的新型产业、不愿意投中国企业、不愿意投资"四个轮子"著称的 巴菲特,竟然彻底打破了自己所有的投资偏好和不成文的规矩,偏偏就要投比亚迪,只投比亚迪,连彼时只有2亿美元估值的特斯拉都看不上。 要减排,燃油车排放的尾气自然是重点控制对象。自2007年底至2008年,中国陆续出台了《新能源汽车生产准入管理规则》和《产业结构调整指导目录 (2007本)》,明确将新能源汽车列入鼓励类产业。 到了2009年,也就是伯克希尔入股比亚迪后不久,中国财政部就发布了关于新能源车补贴的通知,极大地刺激了,甚至可以说是直接推动了中国新能源汽 车市场的快速发展。 显然在那个传奇的投资故事中,必然 ...
宁德时代董事长曾毓群:储能产业面临5大挑战
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-23 09:58
Core Viewpoint - China has become the world's largest new energy storage market, entering a new phase of full marketization, but faces significant challenges including safety risks, intense price competition, false advertising, technological homogenization, and disorderly expansion [1][2][3] Industry Overview - Over the past five years, global new energy storage installations have increased elevenfold, with a target of 1.5 terawatts of cumulative storage capacity by 2030 to support a threefold increase in renewable energy [1] - In 2022, China's new energy storage installations exceeded 100 million kilowatts, with a goal of reaching over 180 million kilowatts by 2027 [1] - China holds the most complete and advanced energy storage supply chain globally, with battery and system shipments accounting for over 90% and 70% of the global market, respectively [1] Challenges in the Industry - Safety hazards are a major concern, with 167 incidents of fires and explosions reported globally as of May this year [2] - Price competition has led to an 80% drop in average storage system prices over the past three years, with some bids falling below 0.4 yuan per watt, raising quality and safety concerns [2] - Many products have inflated specifications, with actual lifespans often falling below promised durations [2] - Technological homogenization is prevalent, as many companies opt for shortcuts rather than investing in independent innovation and research [2][3] - The industry is experiencing chaotic expansion, with over 300,000 registered storage companies, leading to predictions of significant market consolidation in the next three years [3] Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a safety baseline for energy storage, as safety is fundamental to the industry's development [4] - Create a credible market environment based on transparency, which is essential for sustainable development [4] - Strengthen intellectual property protection to encourage innovation, with over 800 billion yuan invested in R&D since 2014 and more than 43,000 patents filed [4] - Drive innovation towards a zero-carbon future by integrating technologies across disciplines, including AI and virtual power plants [4]
宁德时代董事长曾毓群呼吁:储能产业须构建安全、真实、创新生态
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-23 02:08
Core Viewpoint - China has become the world's largest new energy storage market, entering a new phase of global marketization, but faces significant challenges such as safety risks, intense price competition, false advertising, technological homogenization, and disorderly expansion [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The global new energy storage installed capacity has increased 11 times over the past five years, with a target of reaching 1.5 terawatts by 2030 to support a threefold increase in renewable energy [1] - China accounted for over 100 million kilowatts of new energy storage installations last year, with a goal of exceeding 180 million kilowatts by 2027 [1] - The country possesses the most complete and advanced energy storage supply chain, with battery and system shipments representing over 90% and 70% of the global market, respectively [1] Challenges in the Industry - Safety hazards are a major concern, with 167 incidents of fires and explosions reported globally as of May this year [2] - Price competition has led to an 80% drop in average storage system prices over the past three years, with some bids falling below 0.4 yuan per watt, raising quality and safety concerns [2] - Many products have inflated specifications, with actual lifespans often falling below a quarter of the promised duration [2] - Technological homogenization is prevalent, as many companies opt for shortcuts rather than investing in independent innovation and research [2] - The number of registered energy storage companies has exceeded 300,000, leading to predictions of significant industry consolidation within three years [3] Recommendations for Industry Improvement - Emphasize safety as the foundation of energy storage development, with a multi-level safety system established by leading companies [4] - Create a credible market environment to ensure sustainability and trust among market participants [4] - Strengthen intellectual property protection to encourage innovation, with significant R&D investments made by leading companies [4] - Focus on innovative development aimed at a zero-carbon future, integrating advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual power plants [4]
长期持有者巴菲特,最终“清仓”比亚迪,背后是怎样的考量?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 08:28
Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has completely divested its stake in BYD, marking the end of a 17-year investment that yielded significant returns [1][5]. Investment History - Berkshire Hathaway initially invested 1.8 billion HKD in BYD in 2008, acquiring 225 million H-shares at a price of 8 HKD per share, largely based on Charlie Munger's recommendation [3]. - Over the years, this investment appreciated to over 60 billion HKD, representing a nearly 39-fold increase and an average annual return of over 22% [1][5]. Recent Developments - As of March 31, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's financial documents indicated that the value of its investment in BYD was zero, suggesting that the divestment had been completed earlier in the year [1][5]. - From August 2022 to July 2024, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed 16 instances of share reductions, with estimated selling prices ranging from 169.87 to 277.1 HKD per share [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that Buffett's decision to sell was influenced by several factors, including BYD's high valuation, increased competition in the global electric vehicle market, and a strategic reallocation of funds to potentially more lucrative investments [8]. - Despite the divestment, Buffett has praised BYD as an extraordinary company, indicating that the sale was more about realizing value than a lack of confidence in the company's future [8][13]. BYD's Performance - In the first half of 2025, BYD reported revenues of 371.28 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, and a net profit of 15.51 billion CNY, up 13.79% [9]. - BYD's sales reached 2.146 million vehicles, marking a 33% increase compared to the previous year, with significant growth in overseas markets, surpassing Tesla in sales across 16 European countries [9][11]. Internal Confidence - In early September 2025, BYD's internal team demonstrated confidence in the company's future by purchasing shares worth approximately 52.33 million CNY and launching a large-scale employee stock ownership plan totaling nearly 4 billion CNY [11].
碳酸锂产业链供需格局改善
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-18 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations after a rebound in August, driven by complex market dynamics and a balance of supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have significantly increased, leading to improved profits for companies, with signs of a strong demand during the "golden September and silver October" season [1] - The lithium industry is moving towards a "cost control is king" era, with low raw material self-sufficiency and low comprehensive utilization rates of lithium ore being major concerns for companies [2] - The Yichun region in Jiangxi is a key lithium carbonate production base, accounting for 38.8% of national output in the first half of 2025, highlighting its significant role in the industry [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - New lithium extraction technologies, such as the innovative water extraction technology proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aim to improve lithium recovery rates and reduce costs [3] - Companies like Dazhong Mining have reported breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, achieving over 90% recovery rates and significantly reducing waste [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The lithium market is characterized by strong supply resilience, with increased production from lithium spodumene and stable operations in salt lake lithium extraction, compensating for supply gaps [4] - Demand is rising, particularly for lithium iron phosphate batteries, with a forecasted 44% year-on-year increase in China's lithium carbonate consumption from January to September 2025 [4] - European electric vehicle sales have also increased by 25.9% year-on-year, indicating robust demand growth in the sector [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The energy storage sector is expected to provide strong momentum for the lithium industry, with China's cumulative installed capacity reaching 101.3 GW in the first half of the year, doubling year-on-year [5] - The global lithium resource capacity will take time to digest, suggesting that lithium prices may continue to fluctuate around cost lines, indicating a painful period of capacity clearing for the industry [5] - The lithium industry faces both significant opportunities from the energy revolution and challenges related to cost control, technological iteration, resource security, and price volatility [5]
攻坚碳达峰 储能产业“十五五”期间重要性凸显
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-17 19:28
Core Insights - The integration of new energy storage systems with power sources, grids, and loads will be crucial during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, enhancing the development and consumption of large-scale renewable energy [2][5] - The scale of energy storage development is a key indicator of the new power system construction, significantly impacting the quality of renewable energy development and the stability of the power grid [4][5] - The new energy storage industry in China is expected to see substantial growth, with installed capacity projected to exceed 180 million kilowatts by 2027 and 300 million kilowatts by 2035 [5][6] Industry Development - The new energy storage capacity in China has increased nearly 30 times during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with cumulative installed capacity reaching approximately 95 million kilowatts in the first half of the year [4][5] - The energy storage industry is experiencing explosive growth but also faces significant risks, including safety concerns and intense price competition that may compromise quality [6][7] - The industry is urged to build an innovative ecosystem focusing on safety, market credibility, intellectual property protection, and zero-carbon future technologies [8] Global Market Trends - The global demand for energy storage is rising, driven by similar transitions in overseas power grids, with "solar + storage" becoming more competitive against new fossil fuel projects [9][10] - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar has decreased by 89% from 2010 to 2024, making "solar + 4-hour storage" projects cheaper than new coal or gas projects [9][10] - Key challenges for global energy storage deployment include grid congestion, lack of flexible product definitions, and uncertain revenue frameworks, which are common issues faced by both China and other countries [9][10]