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瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251104
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 09:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 4, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5754, down 0.72%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5550, down 20 yuan/ton. The inventory is rising rapidly, the output continues to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has risen for 4 consecutive weeks. The iron - making enthusiasm on the demand side has declined. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 160 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 260 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On November 4, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5510, down 0.29%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5260, down 10 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the short - term cost is supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 310 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 510 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5,754.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5,510.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 557,176.00 lots, up 19,415.00 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 341,576.00 lots, up 13,219.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 49,641.00 lots, up 6,589.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 35,700.00 lots, up 4,477.00 lots [2]. - The price difference between SM's May - January contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the price difference between SF's May - January contracts was 74.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - SM's warehouse receipts were 10,818.00 pieces, up 798.00 pieces; SF's warehouse receipts were 5,182.00 pieces, up 673.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,646.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; SF's main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. - SM's main contract basis was - 204.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 442.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 42.99%, down 0.05%; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.08%, up 0.52% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 207,725.00 tons, up 315.00 tons; ferrosilicon supply was 113,200.00 tons, down 900.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 314,500.00 tons, up 21,500.00 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory was 71,990.00 tons, up 5,430.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 124,492.00 tons, up 1,809.00 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,275.30 tons, up 339.40 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - Crude steel output was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [2]. - The central bank renewed a bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea, with a swap scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won and a validity period of five years [2]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. adjusted its production - capacity target from "80 - 100 million tons" to "over 80 million tons", focusing more on tapping the value of existing assets [2]. - Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [2].