1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 4, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5754, down 0.72%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5550, down 20 yuan/ton. The inventory is rising rapidly, the output continues to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has risen for 4 consecutive weeks. The iron - making enthusiasm on the demand side has declined. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 160 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 260 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On November 4, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5510, down 0.29%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5260, down 10 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the short - term cost is supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 310 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 510 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5,754.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closing price was 5,510.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 557,176.00 lots, up 19,415.00 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 341,576.00 lots, up 13,219.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 49,641.00 lots, up 6,589.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 35,700.00 lots, up 4,477.00 lots [2]. - The price difference between SM's May - January contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the price difference between SF's May - January contracts was 74.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - SM's warehouse receipts were 10,818.00 pieces, up 798.00 pieces; SF's warehouse receipts were 5,182.00 pieces, up 673.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,646.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; SF's main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. - SM's main contract basis was - 204.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 442.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 42.99%, down 0.05%; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.08%, up 0.52% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 207,725.00 tons, up 315.00 tons; ferrosilicon supply was 113,200.00 tons, down 900.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 314,500.00 tons, up 21,500.00 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory was 71,990.00 tons, up 5,430.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 124,492.00 tons, up 1,809.00 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,275.30 tons, up 339.40 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - Crude steel output was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [2]. - The central bank renewed a bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea, with a swap scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won and a validity period of five years [2]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. adjusted its production - capacity target from "80 - 100 million tons" to "over 80 million tons", focusing more on tapping the value of existing assets [2]. - Goldman Sachs' China research team raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting China's exports to grow by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years and raising the forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about a significant decline in China's exports in the second half of the year due to weakening "export grabbing" momentum are addressed. However, it is anticipated that exports will exceed expectations, driven by resilient economic growth in emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, as well as improved trade relations with Europe amid US tariff uncertainties. The forecast for export growth is 4.6% for the year, surpassing market expectations by approximately 1.6 percentage points, which may lead to a GDP growth rate exceeding expectations by about 0.3 percentage points [3][20]. Export Performance - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to diversification in trade and the influence of "export grabbing." The export growth to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU has been significant, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 24.4%, and 7.3% in the first seven months of the year. This diversification has resulted in a 2.9 percentage point decrease in the share of exports to the US [13][14][17]. - The high growth in exports to emerging markets is not solely driven by "export grabbing" but is also supported by actual demand from these regions. Emerging markets have shown better economic performance compared to developed countries, as indicated by manufacturing PMI data [4][17]. Trade Relations with Europe - The high growth in exports to the EU is partly due to improved trade relations between China and Europe amid US-EU trade tensions. Despite existing differences in trade discussions, the EU is unlikely to worsen its economic ties with China, allowing for continued resilience in exports to the EU [5][20]. US Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The US is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with projections indicating a potential interest rate cut of 150 basis points by the end of next year. This is anticipated to support US economic demand, which will positively impact external demand for Chinese exports [6][21]. - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to significantly boost the US economy over the next 1-3 years, with GDP expected to exceed previous forecasts by 1.21% over the next 30 years. The act's immediate effects are expected to be positive, particularly in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections [7][22].

Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - China's export growth is expected to exceed market expectations, with Q3 and Q4 growth rates projected at 5.9% and 1.0% respectively, leading to an annual growth rate of 4.6%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than market expectations[1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP reached 1.7 percentage points in the first half of the year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year despite tariff impacts[1] - The high growth in exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa is driven by actual demand rather than solely by "export grabbing" strategies[1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Policy Impacts - The adjustment of tariffs in major transshipment regions, including ASEAN, is limited, with most rates still lower than those imposed on China, thus minimizing the impact on transshipment trade[1] - The improvement in China-EU trade relations is partly due to the uncertainties surrounding US-EU trade, which may prevent the EU from worsening its economic ties with China[1] - The overall economic resilience of emerging markets, reflected in higher PMI readings compared to developed countries, supports the demand for Chinese exports[1] Group 3: US Economic Policy and External Demand - The US is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with market predictions indicating a potential reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rates to 3-3.25% by the end of 2026[1] - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to boost US economic output by 1.21% over the next 30 years, with significant positive impacts on GDP expected in 2026-2028[1] - The potential for renewed fiscal policies by the Trump administration ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could further stimulate US economic demand[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies remains a significant risk, necessitating close monitoring of US-China trade negotiations[1] - High-frequency data should be interpreted alongside leading indicators like PMI new orders to avoid prediction errors regarding export trends[1] - Increased geopolitical tensions could negatively impact global trade and, consequently, China's export performance[1]