Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Continue to fluctuate. Spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday with reduced trading volume. The industry's weekly production, sales, and inventory improved, but the improvement rate decreased. Plate demand has reached the seasonal peak, while building materials still have room to grow. Due to increased geopolitical differences, the strong cost support logic has weakened, and the unilateral trend has turned to a fluctuating pattern. Consider long basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Supply - demand situation has improved, and costs are supported. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, while the production of silicomanganese decreased. Steel mill demand improved significantly, and non - steel demand also provided marginal support. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased, and silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory pressure under control. Manganese ore prices are strong, providing cost support [2][4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The sentiment in the spot market has further cooled. Auction failure rates are high, and prices are mainly falling. The high oil price story is affecting the market, and the actual price increase of coke is slower than expected, leading to a cooling of the bullish sentiment. Consider taking profits on the previously recommended coke hedging strategy [5]. - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly in a high - level fluctuation. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Sinosteel and BHP, prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, prices are also difficult to break through upwards. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the iron ore futures [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On March 31, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3146.00 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan (- 0.60%); HC2610 closed at 3310.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan (- 0.27%); J2609 closed at 1787.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan (- 3.04%); JM2609 closed at 1278.00 yuan/ton, down 79.50 yuan (- 5.86%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3121.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan (- 0.48%); HC2605 closed at 3294.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan (- 0.33%); J2605 closed at 1701.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan (- 3.13%); JM2605 closed at 1148.50 yuan/ton, down 69.50 yuan (- 5.71%) [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On March 31, the coil - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.86, unchanged; the coal - coke ratio was 1.48, up 0.04; the rebar disk profit was - 120.70 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 174.00 yuan/ton, up 35.12 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On March 31, Shanghai rebar was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [1]. - **Other**: On March 31, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ganqimao Du's coking coal was 1310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's PB was 785.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Gradually enter the long basis opportunity for hot - rolled coils [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt the strategy of short - term long positions on dips [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Take profits on the previously recommended cash - futures positive arbitrage positions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coke: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in coal - coke prices and the recovery of manufacturing PMI. The fundamentals of rebar have no prominent contradictions and weak driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The iron ore market is influenced by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, with a high - level oscillation trend. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors like production, demand, and macro - disturbances, showing an oscillating and weakening trend. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by cost, production, and external factors, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, the spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume declined. The manufacturing PMI in March rose, but the coal - coke price drop affected the black commodity sentiment. The rebar fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. The iron ore futures price dropped, the supply was affected by the hurricane in Australia and the increase in Brazil's shipments, the demand (hot metal output) increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, the spot price decreased, the supply was basically normal with improved shipments, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal output. However, the delay in coke price increase and limited profit space made the procurement more cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, the spot price was stable, the supply was relatively stable, and the demand was rigid but the procurement willingness was average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, and many production enterprises planned to reduce production due to cost issues. The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support, but the inventory is still high. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, the production in March increased compared to the previous month but decreased compared to the same period last year, the demand had a purchase price from a steel mill, the cost increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the Middle East situation and cost changes need to be continuously monitored [2] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 5 - 10 and 10 - 1 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the basis of the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar [3] - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions of various varieties are shown, like the spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [3] - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on the profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of different varieties is provided [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various varieties, such as the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil [25][26][30][31][32][34][36] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][39][41] - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][46] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [48] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [48] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [48] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Production decreased month - on - month, apparent demand increased, inventory entered the destocking phase. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, but East China inventory is still high. With weak domestic policy expectations, strong external disturbances, and large fluctuations in raw material prices, steel may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is still high. Overall supply - demand is relatively stable. The market is greatly affected by external disturbances, and iron ore provides cost support. It may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and external ore shipments dropped significantly. The fundamentals have improved overall, and the price is oscillating strongly. However, large fluctuations in the crude oil system may affect capital sentiment [1][8] - **Coke**: Coke enterprise profits decreased slightly, production remained stable, and some areas reduced production due to environmental protection restrictions. Pig iron production increased month - on - month, and coke enterprise inventory continued to decline. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, and it moves in a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mine daily production continued to recover. The online auction failure rate increased recently, downstream replenishment and speculative demand weakened, and coal mine clean coal inventory maintained normal destocking. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained at a high level. Spot quotes mainly fluctuate with the futures market. External disturbances are still uncertain, and the energy substitution logic is gradually weakening [1][16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased month - on - month, and inventory decreased by 12,000 tons this period. Australian mainstream manganese mines' May quotations continued to rise, providing strong cost support. A large steel mill in Hebei launched a supplementary tender for silicon - manganese alloy in March, with a quantity of 5,100 tons, and the tender result is pending [1][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory decreased significantly by about 4,500 tons this period. The Lanthanum carbon procurement price of a mainstream calcium carbide enterprise in Inner Mongolia increased. In the short term, the fundamentals are good, and the market may move in a range following manganese silicon [1][20] - **Glass**: Production profit is still poor, cold - repair production lines increased, the start - up rate continued to decline, and production decreased. Energy cost increases provide cost support, but demand is still weak, downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and high inventory restricts the upward space of the market. It may maintain low - level operation under weak supply and demand [1][24] - **Soda Ash**: The production side is relatively stable, some projects are under maintenance, but overall production remains high. The demand side is still weak, the daily melting volume of glass remains low, and purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Inventory is still at a high level in the same period, with obvious pressure. External disturbances intensify, and rising energy prices drive up the overall cost. It may operate in a low - level range [1][28] 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Futures prices (e.g., RB01 at 3188, up 15; RB05 at 3139, up 15; RB10 at 3168, up 17), spot prices (e.g., Tangshan billet at 2980, up 20; Shanghai rebar at 3230, up 10), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Futures prices (e.g., HC01 at 3323, up 12; HC05 at 3308, unchanged; HC10 at 3323, up 13), spot prices (e.g., Tianjin hot - rolled coil at 3230, up 10; Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3290, unchanged), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] Iron Ore - Futures prices (e.g., i01 at 772, up 2; i05 at 813, up 1; i09 at 791, up 3), spot prices (e.g., PB powder at 786, unchanged; Yangdi powder at 695, unchanged), price differences, basis, freight rates, and spot index data are provided [6] Coke - Futures prices (e.g., J01 at 1923.0, down 3.0; J05 at 1753.5, up 1.5; J09 at 1842.0, up 2.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1230, unchanged), and various production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - Futures prices (e.g., JM01 at 1543.5, down 6.5; JM05 at 1214.0, down 5.0; JM09 at 1352.5, down 4.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang main coking coal at 1540, up 100), and various production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SM01 at 6658, up 30; SM05 at 6655, up 8; SM09 at 6646, up 20), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese 6517 at 6300, up 70), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SF01 at 6166, up 38; SF05 at 6066, up 54; SF09 at 6162, up 50), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72 at 5730, up 30), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] Glass - Futures market data (e.g., FG01 at 1266, down 7; FG05 at 1040, down 1; FG09 at 1182, up 3), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Hubei glass at 1080, unchanged; inventory at 7601 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 37.3%) are provided [23] Soda Ash - Futures market data (e.g., SA01 at 1346, down 14; SA05 at 1207, down 22; SA09 at 1292, down 18), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Shahe soda ash at 1190, down 20; inventory at 189.4 ten - thousand tons, up 19.3%) are provided [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets, indicating that the demand expectation at the ore end is tightening, and the market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of FeSi2605 and FeSi2607 are 5874 and 6014 respectively, with changes of - 192 and - 176 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 166,212 and 112,877, and the open interests are 158,901 and 129,988 [2]. - For manganese - silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2605 and MnSi2607 are 6444 and 6488 respectively, with a change of - 144 for both compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 359,939 and 108,775, and the open interests are 353,594 and 162,450 [2]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue carbon small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 244 yuan/ton, up 162 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of manganese - silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 114 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan/ton [2]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2605 - 2607 is - 140 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 570 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2607 - ferrosilicon 2607 is 474 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On March 31, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and that of 75 ferrosilicon is 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon are 1150 - 1170 (+10) and 1180 - 1200 (+10) US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - The northern quotation of silicon - manganese 6517 is 6300 - 6350 (+100) yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 6350 - 6450 (+50) yuan/ton [2]. - **Production and Capacity**: - In March, the production of various grades of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 20.83 tons (+1.53 tons), and in Inner Mongolia, it was about 45.05 tons (+2.12 tons) [4]. - As of March 31, 7 factories in the northern main production areas have announced production cuts, involving 14 furnace reductions. Other factories plan to cut production in April [4]. - Since April 1, many companies have carried out production cuts, such as Jitie reducing 2 silicon - manganese electric furnaces, Guangxi Ferroalloy Co., Ltd. reducing production of 6 * 12500KVA high - manganese furnaces, etc. [4]. - **Procurement and Tendering**: - Shanghai Manganese Union Technology Co., Ltd. issued a procurement announcement for South African high - iron manganese ore on March 31, with different purchase prices for different manganese content [4]. - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6580 yuan/ton for procurement of 2000 tons at the end of March, and the mid - month price was 6095/6100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is - 1, and that of manganese - silicon is - 1 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Slow resumption of hot metal production, and ore prices are under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak market sentiment, with repeated fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuations in market trading sentiment, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Tightening demand expectations at the ore end, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Improving demand, with prices oscillating at a high level [2][20] 3. Summary by Category Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan or 0.62%. The trading volume was 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) was 777.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in ore prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.33%. The trading volume was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. Among spot prices, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In March, the output of rebar decreased by 5.46 tons, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.4 tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2605 futures contract was 5,874 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan. The trading volume was 166,212 lots, and the open interest was 158,901 lots. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In March, the silicon - manganese production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased. However, starting from April 1, many enterprises announced production cuts. A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6,580 yuan/ton in late March [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a bearish outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan or 5.4%. The trading volume was 863,734 lots, and the open interest was 396,170 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots. The spot price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 31, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain trends. The online auction of coking coal had a high rejection rate, and the market sentiment was weak [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 820.5 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.7%. The trading volume was 4,637 lots, a decrease of 15.2%. The open interest was 11,027 lots, a decrease of 3.2%. The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/m³, unchanged [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy - based financial instruments [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend forecasts and analysis of influencing factors for each commodity [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: Drops from the trading range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: The situation reverses and rebounds, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. - **Palladium**: Rebounds upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Risk sentiment improves, and prices rise. The trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Runs strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventories decline, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply pressure persists. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. The trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of the pyrometallurgical cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The document does not directly cover crude oil, but it mentions the impact of geopolitical factors on energy prices [68][69]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Benzene**: Oscillates strongly. The trend strength is 0 [2][110]. - **PTA**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][76]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Widely oscillates within the day. The trend strength is 0 [2][79]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and the structure is differentiated. The trend strength is 1 [2][83]. - **PP**: The supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April. The trend strength is 1 [2][84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level. The trend strength is 1 [2][89]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][93]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is 0 [2][116]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks remain, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The trend strength is 1 [2][121]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend remains strong. The trend strength is 1 [2][122]. - **PVC**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: Drops at the night session and remains high in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds overseas. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance. The trend strength is 1 [2][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sown area is lower than expected, boosting the sentiment of the soybean sector. The trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA area report is bullish, and the market may rebound. The trend strength is 1 [2][170]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market rebounds and oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][170]. - **Corn**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][173]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates within a range. The trend strength is 0 [2][177]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new domestic crop planting. The trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts. The trend strength is 0 [2][185]. - **Hogs**: The L - bottom expectation is recognized, and the central price continues to decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][188]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The resumption of hot metal production is slow, and ore prices are under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market trading sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Manganese Silicide**: The expected demand from the ore end tightens, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Log**: The demand improves, and the price oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0 [2][151].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 31, ferroalloy futures prices dropped significantly. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5874, down 3.17% with a decrease of 12,660 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 6444, down 2.19% with a decrease of 13,279 in open interest [5]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price on March 31 was stable to weak, with prices in some regions dropping by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply is currently at a low level, but production is expected to increase due to profit recovery. Demand from the steel industry is rising as steel inventories decline seasonally and steel apparent demand and hot metal production increase. The cost of electricity in major production areas is stable. The fundamentals of silicon - iron show both supply and demand increasing, and it is highly affected by crude oil price fluctuations, currently in high - level volatile operation [5]. - For manganese - silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable to strong on March 31, with the semi - carbonate ore at Tianjin Port rising by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, while manganese - silicon spot prices generally dropped by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply may remain low in the short term due to new maintenance in some enterprises. Demand from the steel industry is still increasing. The cost is affected by high - level crude oil prices, which increase transportation costs and may affect mining and transportation. The bottom support for manganese ore remains until the energy crisis is resolved [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility affected by sharp oil price fluctuations; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5874, down 192 for the day and 226 for the week, with a trading volume of 166,212 (up 30,141) and an open interest of 171,561 (down 12,660) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 6444, down 144 for the day and 36 for the week, with a trading volume of 359,939 (up 48,953) and an open interest of 353,594 (down 13,279) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged and in Tianjin dropped by 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon prices in Inner Mongolia rose by 30 yuan/ton, in Ningxia dropped by 50 yuan/ton, in Guangxi remained unchanged, in Jiangsu dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin dropped by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 174 (up 162 for the day and 176 for the week); SF - SM spread was - 570 (down 48 for the day and 190 for the week) [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 114 (up 174 for the day and 166 for the week) [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore: Australian lump remained at 47 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 for the week), South African semi - carbonate rose by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and Gabonese lump remained at 47.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 for the week) [3]. - Blue charcoal small materials: prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged for the day, with increases of 65, 10, and 65 yuan/ton respectively for the week [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: High - level volatility affected by sharp oil price fluctuations [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Important Information** - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of manganese - silicon at 6580 yuan/ton, with a tender quantity of 2000 tons, delivered to the factory including acceptance and tax [7]. - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced production of one 42000KVA manganese - silicon alloy submerged arc furnace from the night of March 31, actually affecting the daily output of manganese - silicon by 300 tons [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - **Price Difference Diagrams** - Silicon - iron monthly spread: The current 1 - 2 spread is 40, 2 - 3 spread is - 126, etc. [11]. - Manganese - silicon monthly spread: The current 1 - 2 spread is - 32, 2 - 3 spread is - 64, etc. [13]. - **Basis Diagrams** - Silicon - iron basis (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other related basis diagrams [16]. - Manganese - silicon basis (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other related basis diagrams [16]. - **Spot Price Diagrams** - 72% silicon - iron spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai [16]. - 6517 manganese - silicon spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [16]. - **Electricity Price Diagram** - Ferroalloy electricity prices in Gansu, Guangxi, and other regions, with little change recently [17]. - **Cost and Profit Diagrams** - Silicon - iron production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc. [18]. - Manganese - silicon production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc. [21].