| 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好,股指或继续偏 | 股指 | 强运行。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融的 | 空间。 | | | | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,贵金属强势反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,贵金属强势反弹,且白 | 白銀 | 看彩 | | | 银弹性强于黄金。 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | 看多 | 월미 | | | | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 | 40 | 价震荡运行。 | | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面仍偏弱,但几内亚正值雨季,铝 | 土矿发运量下滑,叠加电解铝利润高企、反内卷叙事犹 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年08月25日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：累库放缓 | 12 | | 氧化铝：横盘小涨 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：市场情绪提振 | 18 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，以逢低做多为主 | 18 | | 铁矿石：短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 28 | | 对 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产低于预 | | ★ | | 期，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，行情持续回落。但后期不排除 | | | | 仍会有政策扰动，同时在美联储释放宽松信号后，短期或反弹。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | | 谨慎看多 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货偏弱运行，连续下跌后短期下方空间或已有限，短线或有反 | | ★ | | 弹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，环保限产力度不及预期，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发到货双增， | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 基本面中性。美联储 9 月降息预期确定性增强，阶段性利多商品价格，短期矿价偏强。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第七轮提涨，但后期或面临钢厂博弈。焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 ...

2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 8 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 8 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 铁矿石：短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com (Business Wire: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250823094224/en/Fatal-incident-at- Simandou-project) 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-25 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3119 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨（-0.06%）。当日注册仓单 157733 吨, 环比增加 21323 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141.1603 万手，环比减少 46508 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3361 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 14 元/吨（-0.41%）。 当日注册仓单 32215 吨, 环比减少 1777 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.8147 万手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继 续累积。铁水产量维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力 度。从下游行业看，地产销售降幅扩大，投资端继续大幅下滑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen at the cost end, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. The exchange has restricted positions twice in the past month, causing market sentiment to decline and the sector to weaken. The main contract of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro - aspect**: DCE restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures JM2601 contract since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. China's August LPR remained unchanged. Overseas, Putin put forward requirements for Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [6]. - **Supply - and - demand**: After profit improvement, production and inventory have increased in recent weeks. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 235 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Since the exchange has restricted positions twice in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the sector has weakened. The main contract of ferrosilicon should be treated as a fluctuating operation [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: As of August 22, the position of ferrosilicon futures contracts increased by 9,158 lots to 443,000 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 12 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 442 to 20,474, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 5,460 yuan/ton [8][12][16]. - **Spot market**: As of August 22, the basis increased by 150 points to - 262 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: As of August 21, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.52%, up 0.34% week - on - week. The daily average output was 16,205 tons, up 0.50% (80 tons) week - on - week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products decreased by 0.19% week - on - week, and the national ferrosilicon output was 113,400 tons. Production has rebounded rapidly for six consecutive weeks [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62,080 tons, down 4.76% (3,100 tons) week - on - week [30]. - **Upstream**: As of August 18, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of August 21, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke increased by 20 yuan/ton to 656 yuan/ton. As of August 22, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 40 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5,535 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in Ningxia decreased by 205 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 185 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.09 million tons week - on - week to 2.4075 million tons, and increased by 16.29 million tons year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of ferrosilicon was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared with the same period last year. The ferrosilicon tender price in August was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with July [44][46].

高估风险大幅释放 近期底部震荡为主 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 目录 辅 助 色 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端，本周硅铁、锰硅产量继续小幅上行，但随着价格大幅下跌之后，产量增加的速度有所放缓，关注后续 产量是否开始下降。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量略有增加，总量延续高位，钢联样本钢材表需数据有所反弹，暂未形成 下行趋势。8月底临近阅兵，唐山地区钢厂存在阶段性限产，或对需求有短期冲击。成本端方面，近期电价平稳运行，港口 锰矿价格小幅跟跌，总体表现坚挺。总体来看，合金需求端存在短期冲击，关注价格下行后是否对供应端也有所抑制。 市场情绪 ...