| | | | 11/11/11 | | 2025年07月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證件 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅走强。 本周螺纹表需、产量均小幅回落，库存继续缓慢下降。 热卷需求继续下滑，产量也有所回落，库存继续小 幅累积。铁水产量整体维持相对高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回 暖缺乏持续性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，制造业 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/10 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 【核心矛盾】 铁合金在煤炭价格反弹带动下，以及铁合金受技术性买盘等因素存在一定的反弹情绪 ，上周在提出推出落后 产能维持反弹趋势。近期铁合金上涨的主要逻辑还是在于政策预期和煤炭价格的强势，但现货市场受到钢厂 压价和成本走弱拖累，在终端用钢需求逐渐进入淡季背景下，铁合金长期走势仍相对较弱。 铁合金在利润修 复下，开工率回升，处于一个超季节性增产状态，铁合金产量微增但下游需求并没有明显改变，库存有累库 趋势。锰矿8月报价下调以及澳矿发运恢复，叠加黑色面临需求淡季交易负反馈预期，预计铁合金仍偏弱运 行。上周受到推动落后产能退出政策消息的影响，铁合金作为过剩产业受益相对较大，但盘面回升后，铁合 金利润修复增产的可能性较大，供应压力逐渐增加去库速度变慢，硅铁关注上方5600-5700压力位，硅锰关注 上方5800-5900压力位。短期来看强预期与弱现实的博弈，强预期处于上风，还是要等待预期是否能够真正落 地。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3060， | | | 3100】 | | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3190，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【730,760】 | | 焦炭 | 短期偏强 | 焦炭 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,808.00 | +90.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,576.00 | +184.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 589,143.00 | +6757.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 433,593.00 | +24431.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -45,999.00 | -15137.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -51,970.00 | -1588.00↓ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 36.00 | -4.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -4.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 85,444.00 | -547.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 17,855.00 | +5028.00↑ | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

金属期权 2025-07-10 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属震荡回落，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系区间盘整震荡逐 渐，适合构建卖方期权中性组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整弱势回落，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

【钢材】限产消息继续助力盘面情绪回暖 周三期价运行平稳. 基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再降了一个台阶,但并不影响夜盘盘面情绪回暖,触发点来自于某省发布钢林 产量控产消息,再给盘面情绪点了一把火。只是近期从钢材现货表现来看,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基 快速压缩,个别区域或品牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。同时,市场上对限产的关注度也在拔 高,7月-8月预计会有不定期限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行 政性的扰动概率会增加. 这一点要保持关注;从现货行为来看,当下钢材现货受淡季影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚 挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路;不过,近几日走访调研 一些产业客户,普遍感觉市场的预期和信心环比前一段时间,是有好转的,这一点后续若能兑现为买货或者主动做点敞口扣 实际行动,有助于旺季前现货筑底。 【焦煤焦炭】期现共振上涨,焦炭首轮提涨仍在酝酿 现货端,焦炭提涨声音渐起,焦煤现货竞拍成交较好,价格普遍上涨,成交氛围活跃,港口贸易准一焦炭报价1230(+3 0),炼焦煤价格指数9 ...

黑色商品日报 | | 锰硅：周三，锰硅期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5718 元/吨，环比上涨 1.28%，主力合约持仓环比下降 7292 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 手至 37.06 万手。各地区 6517 锰硅现货市场价约 5470-5650 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日环比上调 10 元/吨。 | | | | 昨日黑色板块整体走势偏强，煤焦价格领涨，市场情绪提振，带动锰硅期价重心环比上移。消息面来看， | | | 锰硅 | 主流钢招启动，河北某大型钢厂 7 月锰硅招标量 14600 吨，较上月环比增加 2900 吨，首询价格 5600 元/ | 震荡 | | | 吨，较 6 月定价环比下调 50 元/吨，关注最终定价情况。近期锰硅处于强预期与弱现实相博弈阶段，锰硅 | | | | 供需格局仍相对宽松，基本面上行驱动力度相对偏弱，短期锰硅期价仍受市场情绪支撑，短期仍以震荡看 | | | | 待，关注宏观及钢招消息。 | | | | 硅铁：周三，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5392 元/吨，环比上涨 0.75%，主力合约持仓环比增加 621 | | | | 手至 19.13 万手。 ...

焦煤主力合约在10:34引爆资金炸弹，主买资金占比 62.64%，成交额超14亿元，价格短线走高。 团订单流 · 分时 1分钟 5分 15分 30分 1小时 日 出 x 高:2503 低:2494 开:2495 收:2499 | K 伍迪 卡玛利拉 斐波纳契 经典 平行通道 楔形 谐波形态 量价分布 吴 里 上 名 家 出 名 名 居 喜 家 庆 路 旅 家 德 品 第 一 第 日 ： 上 ： N E E E B A B .. E E B B B B 1 8 8 a a le a 展 . R 最后出版 | * * te & A B B B E C 在 第 3 在 基 原 R 原 M 出 & 星 音 . = 8 8 a | 烧碱主力合约在10:34、10:36引爆资金炸弹，主买 资金占比均超60%，成交额超20亿元，价格短线走 高。 团订单流 ▼ 分时 1分钟 5分 15分 30分 1小时 日 高: 5524 低: 5486 开: 5486 收: 5508 行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：烧碱引爆多个主买资金炸弹，价格短线走高；鸡蛋出现新的空头堆积带，一图了解焦煤、硅铁、苯乙 烯（EB）等热门品种出现的关键 ...

智通财经7月10日电，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，多晶硅涨超5%，纯苯涨超4%，烧碱、硅铁涨近 4%，工业硅、焦炭、集运欧线、焦煤、氧化铝涨近3%。跌幅方面，鸡蛋跌超1%，国际铜、菜油、沪铜 跌近1%。 国内期货主力合约涨多跌少 多晶硅涨超5% ...