中国经济内生动力

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人民币,大动作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 07:53
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has significantly strengthened the RMB/USD central parity rate by 160 points to 7.1161, marking a new high since November of last year and the largest adjustment since January of this year [1] - Following the announcement, the offshore RMB surged past the 7.16 level, reaching a near one-month high, indicating an unexpectedly aggressive market response [1] - The adjustment is primarily a reaction to the recent decline of the US dollar rather than a signal for a new round of RMB appreciation, as the central parity was only slightly stronger than market expectations [1] Group 2 - The RMB's strength is not uniform against all currencies, as it has weakened against a basket of currencies (CFETS index), suggesting that the RMB is only strong against the USD [1] - In the short term, the PBOC may prefer a slightly stronger RMB to stabilize investor confidence in the stock market and attract foreign investment, while also sending a friendly signal amid ongoing US-China negotiations [1] - Long-term stability of the RMB's strength will depend on two factors: the pace of US interest rate cuts and the internal economic momentum of China, including stock market stability and export recovery [2] Group 3 - A cautionary note is provided that when the market develops a one-sided expectation of "RMB will only appreciate," it often precedes a reversal, as seen in past trends [2]