法国巴黎银行资产管理公司的投资组合经理兼策略师苏菲.辉表示："这可能是一个增持而非做空欧洲股 票的好机会。制药业是一个重要板块，但具有很强的国别特性。这会引起紧张情绪，但投资者需要着眼 全局。" 智通财经APP注意到，欧洲股市周四开盘上涨，投资者并未对特朗普总统威胁对专利药品加征关税做出 过度反应。 截至发稿，欧洲斯托克600指数上涨0.3%。医疗保健板块下跌0.2%，此前特朗普表示，除非生产商在美 国建立生产基地，否则他计划从10月1日起对专利药品征收100%的关税。诺和诺德(NVO.US)下跌 1.7%，Zealand Pharma下跌2.2%。 欧洲股市一直在窄幅区间内波动，因投资者权衡美国降息的前景。今日晚些时候，市场焦点将转向美联 储偏爱的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数，以寻找美国经济状况的线索。 其他个股方面，意法半导体一度下跌1.6%，因此前媒体报道称，特朗普政府正在考虑制定计划以减少 美国对海外芯片的依赖。 ...

不只是利率数字的变化，更是全球资本流动的重新布局 近期，美联储降息预期再度成为全球市场焦点。许多人困惑不已：为什么美国加息被称为"收割全世界"，现在降息又被说成"收割全世界"？这种简单化的阴 谋论往往让我们忽略了背后的经济逻辑。 事实上，货币政策变化对不同人群产生截然不同的影响。今天我们将建立一套完整的分析框架，帮助你看清美国降息背后的真实机制，做出有利于自己的决 策。 什么是货币政策？简而言之，任何会增加或减少货币数量的政策都属于货币政策范畴。这些政策由各国央行制定和执行，虽然新闻不会直接说"央行要增加 或减少货币"，但会通过专业术语传达这些信息。 利率调整远不止影响存贷款成本，其核心目标是调节市场上的货币数量。当美联储宣布降息，实际上意味着他们要以更低利率向外投放更多美元。美联储凭 什么能决定降息？因为它掌握着几乎无限的美元供应能力，可以通过大量放贷迫使商业银行跟进降息。 存款准备金率调整同样影响货币供应。比如准备金率下调0.5个百分点，银行就能将更多资金用于放贷，而且这些钱会通过银行系统的乘数效应放大，显著 增加市场流动性。 公开市场操作是另一个重要工具。当央行购买国债时，向市场注入流动性；出售国债时， ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei average stock index rebounded to 45493.66 points on September 22, up 447.85 points (0.99%) from the previous weekend, surpassing the previous high of 45303.43 points on September 18 [2][3] - The rise in the Tokyo stock market is attributed to the positive performance of major US stock indices, with expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates, supporting a stable US economy [2][3] - Semiconductor-related stocks such as Tokyo Electron and Lasertec saw significant buying, driven by speculation of strong pre-order performance for Apple's new iPhone, leading to a notable increase in Japanese electronic component stocks like TDK [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's decision to sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was unexpected, but the market perceives it as a move to minimize its impact on the overall Japanese stock market [3] - Despite domestic institutional investors selling stocks due to high-risk concerns and seasonal factors, long-term overseas investors are buying undervalued stocks across various sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of base metals are showing mixed trends, influenced by a strengthening US dollar, which is exerting pressure on the entire base metal sector [1] - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 0.3% to $9,975 per ton, while aluminum futures decreased by 1.3% to $2,671.50 per ton [1] - Market observers suggest that the potential benefits of a US interest rate cut may only become apparent after actual economic activity shows signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank notes that the outlook for the aluminum market remains uncertain, despite a significant increase in LME aluminum "cancelled warrants" last week, which provided some support for aluminum prices [1] - Recent increases in aluminum inventory have weakened market expectations for supply tightening [1] - Regarding the copper market, Nguyen mentioned that if the International Copper Study Group reports a "significant oversupply" in the copper market for the first seven months before 2025, it may delay the short-term recovery of copper prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US interest rate cut has been implemented and the previous trading logic of interest rate cuts has cooled down, the current furnace charge end of the black building materials sector still has strong demand support, so negative feedback is still difficult to initiate. With the release of post - holiday replenishment demand and the expectation of favorable domestic and foreign policies, the prices of some varieties in the sector are expected to strengthen steadily [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - After the US interest rate cut of 25BP was implemented on the 18th, the policy cooled down briefly, leading to a slight decline in the day - session futures prices. At night, with the hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons, the furnace charge was further supported, and the iron ore price was relatively resistant to decline. In the later period, with the peak - season atmosphere and downstream replenishment before the National Day, the black building materials sector is expected to remain stable, and the prices of sector varieties are expected to be supported [2]. 2. Element - Based Analysis Iron Element - The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment in the middle and late ten - days. The fundamentals of iron ore are still healthy, but the overall peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which may limit the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the downstream inventory available days are at a low level. There is still an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. With the support of stable and rebounding coal prices, the cost support is relatively strong. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, coal mines are cautious in production under over - speed checks, and the supply has limited room for further increase. With the pre - National Day replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the inventory is accelerating the transfer from top to bottom. The price is expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [3]. Alloys - The peak - season expectation supports the manganese - silicon futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [3]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Individual Variety Analysis Steel - The overall spot market trading volume of steel is weak. The production of some regional steel mills has decreased, and the demand for rebar has recovered. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of rebar, and the inventory has increased. The peak - season demand for steel has recovered less than expected, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals of rebar are better than those of hot - rolled coils. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume of iron ore has decreased. The supply is stable, and the demand has increased slightly. The overall inventory is stable. The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which limits the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [8]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the available days of inventory are at a low level. The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally, and it may follow the finished - product steel to face pressure [10]. Coke - There are both voices of price increase and decrease in the market. The overall supply remains at a high level. The demand is supported by rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly. As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal has increased slightly, and the supply has limited room for further increase. The downstream has started pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the price will fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [11]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [16]. Silicon Iron - The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts within the year, specifically in October and December, each by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4.00-4.25% [1] - The report categorizes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure rather than a response to recession [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to have significant upward potential in the medium to long term, with greater volatility and elasticity following a rebound [1] Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as AI and the internet, small and mid-cap growth stocks, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the China-U.S. mapping chain (home appliances, consumer electronics) [1] - For the U.S. stock market, short-term fluctuations are expected, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated, with recommendations for technology and growth stocks, non-ferrous metals, interest rate-sensitive sectors (real estate chain, discretionary consumption), and cyclical sectors (finance, industrials) [1] - The company has revised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. upward for the next three years while lowering the unemployment rate expectations for the next two years [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, in the context of U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates three times in 2025, potentially bringing the rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by year-end, contrasting with the previous year’s stronger dollar environment [1][5]. - **Global Economic Divergence**: The divergence in monetary policies among the U.S., European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) is highlighted, with the ECB pausing rate cuts and the BoJ maintaining rates after a hike in January 2025 [1][5]. - **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with non-farm payroll data underperforming and an increasing unemployment rate, while the Eurozone is experiencing a decline in unemployment [1][6]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high of 50.7 in August 2025, driven by improvements in France and Germany, indicating a potential economic recovery [6][7]. - **Impact of Fed's Independence**: The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, which could weaken the dollar's credibility and the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, leading to higher long-term bond yields [1][8]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to continue holding or investing in undervalued gold and silver companies, as they are expected to benefit significantly from the current economic environment [2][9]. - **Historical Context**: The call references the market's reaction to the Fed's previous rate cuts in September 2024, where the dollar initially weakened but later strengthened due to market expectations surrounding political developments [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the precious metals market and investment strategies in light of evolving economic conditions.

Market Performance - On September 12, the market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with all three major indices closing lower [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion, an increase of 83.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.09% [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. on various sectors, particularly those related to tools, machinery, and capital goods [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Strategy** - Anticipation of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit certain sectors, particularly tool companies and those with high leasing interest, such as engineering machinery and commercial kitchen equipment [1] 2. **Inflation Transmission and Economic Pressure** - Inflation is slowly transmitting downstream, causing pressure on both domestic and U.S. companies. The August employment wage data indicates minimal core service inflation pressure, suggesting that if demand improves in 2026, price transmission may alleviate current pressures [1][5] 3. **Market Demand Outlook for 2026** - The improvement in market demand in 2026 is a key focus. Stable construction spending in the U.S. and suppressed equipment renewal demand are expected to recover quickly post-rate cuts. Manufacturing return and urban center construction will further boost demand, leading to better cash flow and profit expectations compared to 2025 [1][6] 4. **Investment Focus Areas** - Investment should target sectors less affected by inflation and more positively impacted by interest rate cuts, such as real estate and previously high-rate suppressed areas. These sectors are expected to show stronger upward elasticity in a recovering economy [7][10] 5. **Global Economic Impact of U.S. Rate Cuts** - U.S. rate cuts are expanding global policy space and promoting capital goods demand recovery in Europe. The U.S. and European markets are expected to positively influence capital goods, with certain companies potentially benefiting from improved demand and price transmission [8] 6. **Sector-Specific Recommendations** - Recommended sectors include tool companies, capital goods, oil and gas industry equipment, and technology-driven firms like PCB and power generation. Companies like 巨星科技 (Juxing Technology) and 川仪股份 (Chuan Yi Co.) are highlighted for their strong performance potential [9][11] 7. **Investment Selection Criteria** - Investment choices should prioritize certainty, especially in an uncertain U.S. economic environment. Focus on sectors benefiting from U.S. rate cuts, capital goods, and oil and gas industries, which are expected to experience elasticity release in 2026 [10] Additional Important Insights - The slow transmission of inflation and the impact of tariffs on profitability are significant concerns for companies. The current economic environment is challenging, but improvements in demand next year could alleviate some pressures [5][6] - Companies like 银都 (Yindu) and 浩洋 (Haoyang) are noted for having released risks, indicating potential for better future performance [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and outlook of the HSBC Jintrust Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected Fund (006781), which reported a profit of 12.09 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1802 yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 23.73% [2] - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.149 yuan, and the fund manager is Xu Tingquan [2] - The fund's scale reached 61.259 million yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [31] Group 2 - The fund's recent performance shows a three-month net value growth rate of 28.34%, a six-month growth rate of 37.30%, and a one-year growth rate of 85.25%, ranking it 10th among 110 comparable funds [6] - The fund's weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 9.81 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 28.84 times, indicating a potential undervaluation [10] - The fund's weighted average revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 is 0.13%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate (TTM) is 0.16% [18] Group 3 - The fund's top ten holdings include major companies such as Tencent Holdings, China Biologic Products, and Alibaba Group, reflecting a diversified investment strategy [41] - The fund has maintained a high average stock position of 90.75% over the past three years, compared to the industry average of 88.09% [29] - The fund's recent six-month turnover rate is approximately 106.27%, which is consistently lower than the industry average [38]