从上至下分别为：凯文·沃什、凯文·哈塞特、克里斯托弗·沃勒。 当地时间1月8日，美国总统特朗普透露，对下一任美联储主席人选已"心中有数"，但拒绝透露具体姓名。美财政部长贝森特预计，特朗普将于本月晚些时候 公布人选。 目前，市场预测当选下一任美联储主席概率排名前三的分别是： 凯文·沃什（前美联储理事）：41% 凯文·哈塞特（白宫国家经济委员会主任）：39% 克里斯托弗·沃勒（美联储理事）：12% 到底谁最有希望成为鲍威尔的继任者？白宫和美联储的降息之争是否将进入新的阶段？ 总台环球资讯《闪评》特邀中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌进行解读。 谁将接棒鲍威尔？ 王晋斌分析指出，目前呼声较高的候选人大体可以分为两类： 绝对忠实型：特别忠诚于美国总统，特朗普说降息就降息。 保持一定独立性：努力在市场对美联储独立性的要求与白宫的指令间做好平衡。 王晋斌认为，美联储主席人选未定，也反映出美国总统需要在"政策执行力"与"市场信誉"之间寻找最佳平衡——这个人选需要能领导美联储推动经济增长， 避免通胀反弹与市场信心崩塌。 降息之争 1月8日，美国财政部长贝森特重申，降息是未来美国经济增长的关键所在，也是推动美国经济实现更强增长的" ...

格隆汇1月2日｜交易平台XS.com的高级市场分析师Rania Gule在一份报告中表示，在利率可能下降的环 境下，白银可能比黄金受益更多。Gule称，白银对货币政策的变化更为敏感。他补充道，白银的高流动 性、易交易性和相对较低的成本，使其成为对散户和机构投资者都有吸引力的避险资产。在2025年，白 银上涨了近148%，反映了其作为避险资产、货币对冲和美国经济关键矿产的"多维"性质。预计随着美 元贬值，以美元计价的白银对非美国买家吸引力增强，从而推动全球需求。 ...

欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

12月24日，现货黄金史上首次站上4510美元/盎司，今年累计上涨超71%。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | | 4511.130 | 昨结 | | | 4483.980 | | 总量 | | 0 | | | +27.150 | +0.61% 开盘 | | | 4484.700 | | 现手 | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 4512.740 博 | | 世 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | | 最低价 | 4482.970 博 ਦੇ | | | | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | | सेने में बाद | 王目 目K | | | 周Ｋ | | 月K | 車名 | (0) | | | 量加 | | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4512 740- | | | | | | ---0.64% 卖一 4511.290 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The company's actual controller, Chairman Qiu Jianping, has continuously increased his shareholding by 400,000 shares from December 1 to 4, bringing his total holdings to 46.4152 million shares, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future development [1] - The company has established 23 production bases globally, including 11 in China, 6 in Europe, 3 in the United States, and 3 in Southeast Asia, enhancing its ability to respond quickly to market demands and deliver large orders [1] - The electric tools business is entering a harvest period, achieving a revenue of 741 million yuan by 1H2025, with a year-on-year growth of 56.03%, accounting for 10.56% of total revenue, indicating a continuous increase in business weight and potential as a core growth driver [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate sector during the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, alongside its strong competitive position and imminent fundamental improvements [2] - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 15.03 billion, 18.08 billion, and 21.55 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.64 billion, 3.20 billion, and 3.81 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.2, 13.3, and 11.2 times [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector, focusing on companies with strong operational resilience or signs of bottom reversal [6][63]. Core Insights - The focus has shifted from policy catalysts to fundamental performance, with an emphasis on companies demonstrating operational resilience or potential recovery from low points [2][15]. - The retail sector experienced a relatively small decline of -0.21% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, outperforming other consumer-related sectors [1][7]. - The report highlights specific stocks that have shown significant price movements, such as Guai Bao Pet and TCL Electronics, which saw increases due to various catalysts [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail sector's performance was relatively stable compared to other sectors, with a decline of only -0.21%, ranking 12th among all sectors [1][7]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards technology and high-end manufacturing, leading to weaker returns in consumer and cyclical sectors [2][15]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Guai Bao Pet, which rose by 2.7%, and TCL Electronics, which increased by 2.5%, attributed to factors such as oversold rebounds and improved performance expectations [2][16]. - Conversely, stocks like Pop Mart faced declines due to disappointing sales during the overseas Black Friday promotions, raising concerns about future growth [2][16]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that investment opportunities may be limited as policy expectations have stabilized, recommending stocks with strong fundamentals and low valuation percentiles [3][17]. - Three main investment themes are proposed: benefiting from holiday travel and tourism, domestic brands with competitive advantages, and durable goods companies likely to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts [3][17]. Sector News - In the cosmetics sector, sales on major platforms reached 37.64 billion yuan in the first 11 months, with Proya leading in several categories [4][18]. - The home appliance sector saw the launch of a new smart air conditioning factory by Xiaomi, enhancing its production capabilities [4][19]. - The furniture sector is addressing consumer pain points with new commitments from leading companies to ensure quality and service [4][20].

受美国降息影响，港股早盘高开，三大指数盘中持续走低转跌。截止午盘，恒指微幅上涨0.09%，国企 指数跌0.13%，恒生科技指数跌0.65%。大型科技股多数由涨转跌拖累市场情绪，海上风电近期密集开 标，Q4装机旺季高速增长，风电股强势；抢占春节市场，航司集体开通国际新航线，航空股集体回 暖。另外，黄金、铜等有色金属股高开低走迎来回调行情，半导体股集体弱势。(格隆汇) ...

本文源自：格隆汇 12月5日，光大证券国际产品开发及零售研究部预期，2026年上半年主要央行维持宽松政策以稳定经 济。美国关税政策及美国政府停摆天数创纪录，虽然短期影响市场情绪，但明年上半年美国仍可能降息 一次，将支持资金流向新兴市场，有利内地及香港股市向上。 光大证券国际证券策略师伍礼贤表示，该行认为恒指明年有机会再次见到30000点以上的水平。在可关 注板块方面，该行认为在2026年，中资金融、智能科技、能源有色、本地金融等四大板块仍存在不错的 投资机遇。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist James Lord indicates that the South Korean won may stabilize and potentially reverse some recent declines as the U.S. approaches interest rate cuts and South Korea's monetary easing cycle comes to an end [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - The won has experienced its most severe sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis, but Lord expects it to remain volatile [1] - The depreciation of the won is partly due to a surge in domestic funds investing overseas, bringing the exchange rate close to its lowest level since 2009 [1] - In the second half of this year, the won has been the worst-performing currency in Asia, depreciating over 8% against the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Predictions - Lord believes that the shift in monetary policy and easing trade tensions are driving a risk-return profile that favors a recovery of the won [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the U.S. will cut interest rates three times by 2026, while the South Korean central bank's easing cycle is "basically over" [1] - As U.S. economic data weakens, it is expected that the dollar will weaken, providing an opportunity for the won to recover by 2026 [1]

格隆汇11月26日｜金价周三攀升至近两周高位，此前美国经济数据增强了对美国联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）12月降息的预期，并令美元承压。现货黄金上涨逾0.7%，至每盎司4,160.12美元，为11月14 日以来的最高水平。"目前的预期更倾向于12月降息……美联储官员的鸽派言论和良好的经济数据加强 了这一理由，从收益率角度来看，这提振了黄金，"KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示。 ...