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中国股市估值逻辑
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【机构策略】2025年中国股市估值逻辑在内不在外
Group 1 - The current A-share market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally compared to the end of 2014 and early 2019, but a surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, along with simultaneous easing by the People's Bank of China, could act as a catalyst for market sentiment [1] - Active funds are shifting from pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors to technology and finance, indicating a potential stagnation in dividend growth, with structural opportunities being a key topic during the mid-year reporting season [1] - The valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2 - The rebound driven by risk appetite is currently well-developed, and a trend-driven market may need to wait until there are clear turning points in economic fundamentals, incremental policies, and liquidity [2] - The market's downside potential is relatively limited due to the ongoing functions of central financial stabilization funds, with expectations that the A-share index will remain within a wide fluctuation range in the third quarter [2] - Market styles are expected to continue rotating, with previously lagging high-growth sectors showing potential for catch-up [2]