证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 01 日 波动与避险情绪共振，哑铃策略应对高波环境 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 近期地缘政治冲突抬升市场不确定性，叠加节前流动性收敛与春季行情部分兑现，市 场或将进入"宏观数据真空+两会预期"博弈期，波动中枢上移的背景下，哑铃型策略 有望提升风险收益比。 ❑ 转债市场延续震荡修复格局，整体风格偏向稳健。 过去一周（2026/02/23~2026/02/27，下同），转债市场在节后资金回流与政策预期 升温背景下，延续震荡修复格局，整体风格偏向稳健，波动率与红利特征占优。 转债中盘指数（0.01%）表现优于大盘指数（-0.30%）和小盘指数（-0.10%），中价 指数表现较好（0.10%），高价转债走势较弱（-0.93%），显示资金对高估值、高价 位品种的风险偏好仍在收敛。驱动因素上，一是"两会"临近，政策定调窗口开 启，在宏观叙事尚未完全落地的"政策真空期"，资金更倾向于围绕预期差进行结 构性布局；二是海外地缘冲突与大宗商品价格波动，使部分传统周期与红利板块 的确定性相对提升，转债层面具备防御底仓属性的标的受到 ...

重点留意！节后三大翻倍方向，重仓股民拿稳别慌！ 春节的瓜子还没嗑完、拜年的红包还没理清楚，重仓的股民朋友心早就飞回A股盘面了。有人攥着筹码 怕洗盘，有人盯着行情怕踏空，有人刷着研报找主线，整个人又期待又忐忑。 最近市场信号越来越清晰，节后行情正在悄悄蓄力，三大方向被政策、资金、业绩三重加持，多家正规 券商研报直接点名"具备翻倍级修复空间"。到底是画饼噱头，还是真金白银的机会？重仓的朋友该守还 是该跑？ 2026年2月13日，上证指数收盘4082.07点，沪深两市成交19826.8亿元。 数据来源：上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所官网行情中心。 市场不缺钱，央行直接送上"定心丸"，官方公告可查。 2026年2月13日，央行开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限182天。 中长期活水直达市场，为节后行情筑牢资金底座。 经济基本面也在回暖，国家统计局数据实打实。 2026年1月CPI同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，消费稳步修复。 PPI同比降幅连续收窄，工业端持续回暖，企业盈利预期向上。 三重利好打底，节后不是瞎炒，是有支撑的结构性机会。 重仓的朋友先别慌，下面这三大方向，就是机构紧盯的翻倍主线。 第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of investment strategies and the importance of adapting to changing environments, emphasizing a return to grassroots principles and a focus on genuine engagement with industries [3][4]. Part 01: Cycles and Adjustments - Understanding historical patterns can alleviate anxiety about current turmoil, as short-term disruptions are part of a longer-term trajectory [10]. - Structural opportunities arise during periods of change, making it an ideal time to identify promising projects [11]. - The shift from a focus on platformization to a return to grassroots values is necessary to maintain organizational spirit and agility [11]. - Senior partners should return to frontline engagement to better understand industry dynamics and innovation [11]. - Adapting strategies to align with changing environments is crucial, as rigid approaches may hinder success [11]. Part 02: New Opportunities - The AI sector is transitioning from foundational development to innovative applications, presenting new investment opportunities [13]. - Successful ventures will integrate both hardware and software, as a balanced approach is essential for long-term success [13]. - Building infrastructure for international expansion is more critical than merely selling products abroad [13]. - Identifying and collaborating with industry leaders can create mutually beneficial partnerships [13]. - Investment success can stem from either innate insight or aligning with influential figures in the industry [13]. Part 03: Life Insights - Personal happiness is derived from incremental achievements and a deeper understanding of the world's workings [15]. - Opportunities for disruption arise when large organizations become bureaucratic and complacent [16]. - Continuous self-critique is essential for organizations to remain innovative and responsive to change [16]. - The complexity of the world provides unique opportunities for those willing to explore and seek truth [16]. - Recognizing personal strengths and limitations is vital for achieving one's potential [16]. - Supporting idealists who pursue greater causes can inspire and create significant impact [16]. - Maintaining personal connections and warmth in business relationships is crucial for long-term success [16]. - Engaging with challenges and uncertainties is essential for meaningful progress [18]. - The pursuit of complex, high-quality projects is more rewarding than seeking immediate gratification [18]. - Viewing investment as a strategic game allows for a deeper exploration of opportunities and collaboration with intelligent minds [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, showing characteristics of valuation-driven and structural differentiation, with an upward trend expected to continue post-Spring Festival [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a clear upward trend supported by improving corporate earnings, increased willingness of residents to invest, and ongoing policies to optimize industry competition [2]. - Short-term market fluctuations are expected due to seasonal effects, particularly around the Lunar New Year, but the overall upward trend remains intact [2][4]. Market Structure Characteristics - Historical data shows that since 2009, the average spring market rally lasts 57 days with an average increase of over 20%, with value blue-chip sectors performing well before the Spring Festival [3]. - The equity market is currently in a bullish window until early March 2026, with a focus on risk management and strategic positioning [3]. Post-Spring Festival Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, supported by macroeconomic recovery, stable policy environment, and regulatory measures to prevent overheating [4]. - There is potential for a "red envelope market" if consumer data exceeds expectations, reinforcing cyclical sector support [4]. Investment Strategies - The investment logic post-Spring Festival will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical sectors [7]. - Five key investment themes are recommended: 1. AI industry chain focusing on application development and performance-driven investments [7]. 2. High dividend yield assets, particularly in stable cash flow sectors like home appliances and banking [7]. 3. Sectors benefiting from policy-driven improvements, such as coal, steel, and lithium [7]. 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, including health, sports, and travel industries [8]. 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals, anticipating a rebound in prices [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant trend in the fund market, where a large number of newly established funds are rapidly increasing their stock positions to seize market opportunities during the spring season [1][3] - As of February 6, 2023, out of 282 newly established funds, 81 have announced early closure of fundraising, indicating a shift in strategy to quickly deploy capital [1][3] - Active equity funds have shown notable net value fluctuations shortly after their establishment, with some funds achieving returns of 1.46% and 1.15% within a few weeks [1] Group 2 - Passive products, particularly ETFs, are also building positions rapidly, with some ETFs reaching stock asset ratios of 97.21% and 95.80% just before their listing [2] - The resurgence of "proportional allotment" in fund subscriptions reflects a strong demand for new funds, as seen with the Penghua Fund's rapid scale limit being reached [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the current favorable policies and abundant liquidity in the A-share market are encouraging quick positioning by fund managers, allowing them to capture low-risk opportunities [3] Group 3 - The phenomenon of early fundraising closures provides new funds with more market opportunities, allowing fund managers to quickly access capital and make timely investments [3] - The influx of incremental funds from both residents and institutions supports the issuance of new funds, enhancing the overall market liquidity [3] - Industry experts recommend that investors focus on the research capabilities of fund managers and product suitability rather than merely chasing fast-building and high-heat products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has experienced a significant decline of 5.8% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.1% increase in H-share Chinese banks, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector's performance has been weak, ranking last among 35 industries in the Wind secondary industry classification [1] - Despite the overall downturn, certain banks like Qingdao Bank and Ningbo Bank have shown strong performance, with increases of 19.87% and 9.29% respectively in January [2] - The average dividend yield for A-share banks remains at approximately 4.5%, which is higher than the 0.5%-2.0% returns of various risk-free assets, making bank stocks attractive for long-term investors [3] Group 2: Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Since October 2025, there has been a cautious approach from funds towards the banking sector, leading to a period of consolidation [5] - Significant outflows have been recorded, with estimates showing that around 10% of the trading volume has been affected by net outflows from bank-related ETFs, totaling approximately 9111 billion yuan [6] - Despite short-term pressures, there is a belief that the fundamentals of the banking sector are improving, as indicated by increased institutional interest in bank credit issuance [6][9] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - The banking sector is expected to see internal differentiation, with regional banks like Qingdao Bank and Ningbo Bank performing well against the backdrop of overall sector weakness [7] - Analysts predict that Qingdao Bank will maintain double-digit profit growth in 2026, supported by strong loan issuance capabilities and stable asset quality [8] - The demand for high-dividend assets remains strong, with expectations that insurance funds will inject over 2 trillion yuan into the market in 2026, further supporting bank stocks [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The current market adjustment reflects short-term fund disturbances, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to improving fundamentals [9] - Institutions are focusing on banks with strong asset quality and those that are improving their cost of liabilities and non-interest income [10] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from a stable dividend profile and recovery trading logic, especially as credit issuance continues to grow [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates a continuation of the profit improvement trend in A-shares, with a disclosure rate of 55.8% for 2025 annual reports as of January 31, 2026 [1] - The sectors with the highest pre-announcement rates and profit growth are concentrated in upstream materials and technology manufacturing [1][2] - The overall pre-announcement rate for 2025 is 35.8%, showing a marginal increase from 33.5% in 2024, with the highest rates in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors [3][5] Industry Comparison - The highest pre-announcement rates range from 50% to 82% in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors, while the lowest rates (below 25%) are found in coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and retail sectors [1][2] - Profit growth rates for 2025 show non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, steel, automotive, and public utilities leading with a median year-on-year growth of 40% to 70% [2] - The report highlights that the profit growth for the majority of sectors, except for non-ferrous metals and steel, has improved compared to the third quarter of 2025 [2] Profit Growth Insights - The median year-on-year profit growth for all A-shares is reported at 17.9%, with a significant improvement of 12.6 percentage points from the third quarter [3][4] - The growth rates for the main boards, ChiNext, and STAR Market are 14.3%, 24.9%, and 22.4% respectively, indicating substantial improvements across all boards [3][4] - Specific sectors such as personal care products, electric motors, and aviation equipment show remarkable profit growth forecasts ranging from 65% to 275% for 2025 [2][11] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the overall profit improvement trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with structural highlights in upstream price increases and technology manufacturing [6] - Short-term market conditions are anticipated to remain favorable, with a focus on sectors with strong earnings support [6] - Mid-term expectations include continued policy support and industrial innovation driving profit improvements, with recommendations to focus on technology growth, commodity price beneficiaries, advanced manufacturing, and dividend assets [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a significant rotation of themes, shifting from technology stocks to a focus on heavyweight stocks, with a notable reduction in the profitability effect [2][13] - The market is in a cooling cycle, with a decrease in trading volume and a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to potential seasonal tightening of market liquidity [2][13] - The core logic supporting the market's medium-term positive outlook remains unchanged, driven by favorable domestic policies and capital [2][13] Group 2 - The report forecasts an increase in market volatility and a trend towards balanced styles in 2026, emphasizing the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions [3][13] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with actual performance or future earnings support, including technology growth stocks, cyclical commodities, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [3][13] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by digital transformation and geopolitical factors, while cautioning against purely speculative stocks lacking performance support [10][12] Group 3 - The agricultural and tourism sectors are noted for their active performance, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and shifting the macro policy focus towards consumer-driven growth [8][12] - The report identifies structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in areas aligned with demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [8][12] - The report also discusses the performance of the precious metals sector, which has seen significant price increases due to various factors, including monetary policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, but advises against chasing prices after recent gains [11][12]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Engineering Index rising by 0.10% to 2029.77 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% [1][2] - Key stocks such as Lanke Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Luzhou Laojiao showed strong performance, with Lanke Technology leading with a 13.64% increase [2] - Since the beginning of 2026, Lanke Technology has surged by 54.37%, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation at 46.97%, indicating significant growth among certain stocks [2] Group 2 - Market performance was heavily influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility across different styles and sectors, particularly in defensive financial sectors [3] - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to the excessive gains in certain sectors, while fundamental and liquidity factors remain stable [3] - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to present mid-term investment opportunities, driven by trends in household savings and performance realization across multiple industries [3] Group 3 - Precious metals and resource sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a pullback, leading to a shift in funds towards more certain areas [4] - The logic behind the non-ferrous metals industry remains unchanged, with constrained supply and increasing demand from emerging sectors like new energy and AI expected to support price increases [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is anticipated to favor economic stimulation over inflation suppression, benefiting large commodities priced in dollars [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market sentiment has improved with the weakening of the US dollar and the sharp rise of precious metals. In January, the yield of the 10Y bond showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with the 5Y - 7Y varieties favored by allocation investors showing a significant decline [2]. - The calendar effect of the bond market around the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the direction depends on the capital market and fundamental expectations. In February, bond market volatility is likely to increase, and there are potential risks both overseas and domestically. From the perspective of supply and demand, the pressure on the liability side of banks is not large, and the supply in February is expected to increase but the pressure may be limited. Other institutions such as insurance and wealth management may still have the ability to allocate, while small - scale banks among the trading investors may face some pressure, but funds with light positions may start to gradually deploy [3]. - The 10Y Treasury bond is still in the range of 1.80% - 1.90% since November 2025, and it is expected to remain so in February. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term gaming of ultra - long - term spread compression when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.80%, focusing on the carry trade opportunities of medium - and short - term credit bonds, especially financial bonds, and seizing the convex points on the yield curve [4]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: The weakening of the US dollar and the sharp rise of precious metals have led to an improvement in the domestic bond market sentiment Overseas - In January, Hassett was likely to be out of the race for the Fed chair, leading to a downward revision of the expected interest rate cut within the year and an adjustment in US Treasury bonds. The 10 - year US Treasury yield first rose and then fell, and the term spread first flattened and then rebounded [7][8]. - Major asset classes followed Trump's trade policies. The US dollar weakened, and precious metals and industrial metals rose. Gold prices exceeded 5000 points, and the US stock market fluctuated [11][13]. Domestic - Due to the cross - year period and tax payment period in January, the capital market tightened marginally, and the bond market leverage ratio dropped to around the median. However, the central bank actively injected over one trillion yuan of long - term liquidity [16]. - The historic bullish start of the stock market in January suppressed the bond market, but later the bond market sentiment improved. The 10Y bond yield first rose and then fell, with the 5Y - 7Y varieties favored by allocation investors showing a decline [20][21]. - In terms of institutional behavior: - Large - scale banks reduced their bond - allocation scale but increased the duration, mainly increasing their allocation of 5 - 10Y Treasury bonds [25]. - Insurance companies increased their bond - allocation scale in January but slightly reduced the duration, mainly increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [31][33]. - Small and medium - sized banks mainly allocated inter - bank certificates of deposit, with a relatively conservative trading style [38]. - Funds reduced their positions and mainly allocated credit bonds [41]. - Wealth management products' bond - allocation scale in January was in line with the seasonal pattern, mainly increasing their allocation of short - term policy - financial bonds within 1 year [48][51]. PART2: Outlook for the bond market around the Spring Festival - The calendar effect of the bond market around the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the direction depends on the capital market and fundamental expectations. However, bond market volatility tends to increase in February. The factors leading to increased volatility in February in previous years include domestic liquidity tightening, economic recovery expectations, and improved risk appetite, as well as the upward risk of US Treasury yields overseas [59][64]. - Current potential risks include overseas short - term inflation risks, better - than - expected AI performance in US stocks, and ongoing trade and geopolitical frictions; domestic potential disturbances include January's credit and inflation data and the resurgence of risk appetite in the equity market [64]. - From the supply - demand perspective, the pressure on the liability side of banks is not large, and the supply in February is expected to increase but the pressure may be limited. Other institutions such as insurance and wealth management may still have the ability to allocate, while small - scale banks among the trading investors may face some pressure, but funds with light positions may start to gradually deploy [3][72]. PART3: Bond market strategy for February 2026 - The 10Y Treasury bond is still in the range of 1.80% - 1.90% since November 2025, and it is expected to remain so in February. Bullish investors need aggregate stimuli such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to break through the range downward, while bearish investors need scenarios such as improved risk appetite, better - than - expected economic data, and renewed pressure on the liability side of banks [4]. - Structural opportunities include: - When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the lower limit of 1.80%, short - term gaming of ultra - long - term spread compression may be more cost - effective, but the timing needs to be well - grasped [4][77]. - Focus on the carry trade opportunities of medium - and short - term credit bonds, especially financial bonds. Currently, the carry trade space for 1 - 3Y credit bonds is about 30BP, and the supply of credit bonds in February may decline year - on - year [80]. - Seize the convex points on the yield curve, such as 20Y local bonds, 10Y Export - Import Bank bonds, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds [84].