中国航空业超级周期
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国泰海通|交运:春运客流逐步启动,官方预期再创新高
国泰海通证券研究· 2026-02-02 14:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected increase in passenger flow during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, driven by extended holiday periods and strong demand for family visits and travel [1][2]. Group 1: Holiday Extension Impact - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday will be extended to 9 days, which is expected to sustain high demand for family visits and travel [1]. - The previous two years of extended holidays have significantly boosted travel, with the 2025 Spring Festival seeing over 9 billion people traveling, a 7% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Passenger Flow Projections - The 2026 Spring Festival travel is projected to see a record 9.5 billion people traveling, a 5.3% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Railways are expected to transport 539 million passengers, a 5% increase, while civil aviation is projected to carry 95 million passengers, also a 5.3% increase [2]. Group 3: Aviation Market Outlook - The aviation sector is anticipated to experience a "super cycle," with market-driven pricing and a recovery in demand expected to enhance profitability starting in 2026 [4]. - The article emphasizes that the long-term growth logic in the aviation industry will provide dual opportunities for performance and valuation [4].