展望未来，报告称，2026年航运市场面临高度不确定性，在供需基本面趋于宽松的总体格局下，航运市 场运价持续受到地缘冲突、环保新规等外部因素的剧烈冲击，导致其波动显著且不同船型间的表现急剧 分化。 上海国际航运研究中心中国航运景气指数编制室针对2026年航运市场的运价走势进行了相关调查。调查 结果显示，在接受调查的船舶运输企业中，有18.84%的企业认为2026年航运市场的运价走势会增长10% —30%；有66.67%的企业认为2026年航运市场的运价走势会上下浮动10%左右；有14.49%的企业认为 2026年航运市场的运价走势会下跌10%—30%。 （编辑：吴婧 审核：朱紫云 校对：陈丽） 上海国际航运研究中心近日发布2025年第四季度中国航运景气报告。报告显示，2025年第四季度，中国 航运景气指数为112.23点，较上季度上涨0.61点，维持相对景气区间；中国航运信心指数为120.20点， 较上季度上涨7.80点，由相对景气区间升至较为景气区间，航运企业经营情况依旧保持韧性。 中国航运景气调查显示，2026年第一季度中国航运景气指数预计为106.69点，较本季度下降5.54点，由 相对景气区间降至微景气 ...

Core Insights - The shipping industry in China experienced an increase in activity during the second quarter of 2025, with the shipping prosperity index rising to 120.81 points, up 14.77 points from the first quarter, indicating a relatively prosperous market [1] - The shipping confidence index also increased to 123.22 points, up 12.89 points from the first quarter, reflecting improved market conditions and business vitality [1] - However, the third quarter is expected to see a decline in both indices, with the shipping prosperity index projected at 108.99 points, down 11.81 points, entering a micro-prosperity range [2] Shipping Industry Overview - The second quarter saw a positive trend in the shipping industry, with improved supply-demand relationships and business vitality, laying a good foundation for recovery and growth in the third quarter [1] - Despite the positive indicators, external risks such as geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters may introduce uncertainties in the market [1] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping sector showed a relatively good operational status in the second quarter, with a prosperity index of 113.81 points, up 14.97 points from the first quarter [2] - However, the confidence index for dry bulk shipping dropped to 79.17 points, down 7.91 points, indicating a less optimistic outlook among entrepreneurs [2] - The third quarter is expected to see a further decline in the dry bulk shipping prosperity index to 104.58 points, while the confidence index is projected to rise to 97.22 points [3] Container Shipping - The container shipping sector experienced significant growth in the second quarter, with a prosperity index of 125.25 points, up 14.93 points, and a confidence index of 121.25 points, up 26.25 points [3] - Despite rising operational costs, container shipping companies reported increased freight income and improved profitability, leading to a strong investment willingness among entrepreneurs [3] - The third quarter is expected to see a decline in the container shipping prosperity index to 113.63 points and a confidence index of 111.25 points [3] Port Operations - The overall operational status of Chinese port enterprises improved in the second quarter, with a prosperity index of 136.63 points, up 28.14 points, and a confidence index of 171.25 points, up 42.42 points [4] - Port enterprises reported increased profitability due to higher throughput and berth utilization rates, along with reduced debt levels [4] - The third quarter is projected to see a decline in the port prosperity index to 116.88 points and a confidence index of 165.00 points [4] Market Outlook - A significant portion of port enterprises expressed a pessimistic outlook for throughput in the second half of the year, with 75% anticipating a decline of 0% to 10% [5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to have a direct impact on shipping businesses, although many shipping companies remain confident that freight rates will stabilize in the near term [5]