中远海控（601919）(01919)发布公告，于2025年11月28日，该公司斥资3978.25万港元回购300万股股 份，每股回购价13.22-13.37港元。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Transportation Industry**: The report focuses on the transportation sector, particularly the aviation and shipping industries, with a positive outlook for 2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Aviation Industry - **Optimistic Outlook**: The aviation sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with passenger load factors reaching historical highs (e.g., 87% for major airlines like China Southern and China Eastern, and over 90% for Spring Airlines) [3][4]. - **Profit Potential**: A 10% increase in ticket prices for airlines with revenues around 100 billion can lead to a profit increase of approximately 10 billion [1][3]. - **Supply Chain Constraints**: The global aircraft supply chain is anticipated to remain tight due to limited participants in the manufacturing market and challenges in scaling production [4]. - **Demand Drivers**: Increased consumer policies and travel demand are expected to significantly boost service consumption, particularly in cultural and tourism sectors [4]. Shipping Industry - **Market Segments to Watch**: Focus on cruise, bulk cargo, and container shipping markets, with cruise rates exceeding $100,000 per day, driven by oil production cycles and sanctions [5][6]. - **Capacity Constraints**: The shipping industry faces limited capacity growth due to low order backlogs since 2022, leading to a strong growth outlook [5][6]. - **Oil Tanker Market**: High percentage of aging vessels (20 years or older) necessitates increased scrapping, with every $10,000 rise in rates potentially adding over 1 billion in profits for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [8]. - **Dry Bulk Market**: The Simandou iron ore project is expected to significantly increase transportation demand, with production projected to reach 20 million tons by 2026 and 80 million tons by 2028 [8]. Dividend Assets - **Return Expectations**: Dividend assets are projected to revert to mean returns around 10% in 2026, driven by 5% earnings growth and a 4-5% dividend yield [9][10]. - **Highway Sector Stability**: The highway sector is expected to maintain stable operations, with dividend yields projected between 4.5-5% for companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Shandong Highway, and potentially over 6% for Hong Kong-listed firms [10]. Port Sector - **Strategic Importance**: Ports are highlighted as strategic global assets, with companies like China Merchants Port showing upward momentum due to their current undervaluation [11]. Express Delivery Industry - **Market Adjustments**: The express delivery sector, particularly the Tongda system, is positioned for growth following adjustments and the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance industry quality and profitability [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies to watch include major airlines (Air China, China Eastern, China Southern), and shipping firms like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy, as well as express delivery leaders like YTO Express and ZTO Express [6][12]. - **Overall Investment Focus**: The report emphasizes the importance of sectors with upward performance potential, such as aviation, shipping, and express delivery, alongside dividend assets that are expected to recover in the economic recovery context [13].

当前全球气候变化形势加速演进，发展低碳交通已成共识。作为全球贸易体系的关键枢纽，航运业承担 着逾80%的货物运输，其运输过程产生的温室气体约占全球总排放的2%—3%，能源结构仍以化石燃料 为主。近十年来航运业排放总体呈上升趋势。国际海事组织在《Third IMO GHG Study 2014》中指出， 在既有经济增长与能源使用模式下，至2050年的排放水平与温控目标之间仍存在显著缺口，预计将升至 2008年水平的约1.5—3.5倍，脱碳目标面临巨大挑战。作为典型"难减排"部门，航运业需要在燃料替 代、能效提升与基础设施互联等方面形成系统性转型。 一、国际进展与政策图景 一是以全链条协同重塑供需关系，破解"各自为战"的推进困境。绿色航运走廊的本质是一条把清洁燃 料"从源头到船桨"贯通起来的协作链条，必须同时调动交通、能源、航运、港口等多领域主体，形成稳 定的供需闭环。目前实践中仍存在部门分割、项目分散的问题，难以形成规模效应。要扭转这一局面， 应围绕清洁燃料的生产、运输、储存与船舶使用，构建跨部门、跨企业、跨港口的协作体系，以中长期 合约、共同投资与运营协调为抓手，将需求侧的"可预期"转化为供给侧的"可落地"。 ...

12逐步走向交割逻辑, 跟随现货, P1大约在1600点左右，P2和P3对标12月下半月，观察船司宣涨与落地情况 ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台钓 | | 昨日收卷公 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | FC2512 | | 1650.0 | -7.29% | -10.6 | 6884 | | 6454 | -403 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.5 | -7.34% | 185.9 | 51412 | | 48279 | 4946 | | | EC2604 | | 1126.4 | -1.37% | 513.0 | 5004 | | 17016 | 920 | | | EC2606 | | 1338.0 | -1.49% | 301.4 | 272 | | 1629 | 95 | | | EC2608 | | 1464.0 | -1.62% | 175. ...

二、散运：西芒杜项目如期投产，有望推动市场继续复苏 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2026年航运行业投资逻辑仍将沿着供需缺口方向展开，即供 给增速低位、需求有望迎来边际变化的板块，1)油运：全球原油增产周期、制裁改善贸易结构、油轮供 给约束三大因素具备可持续性，有望共同推动合规市场景气继续向上。2)散运：供给端与油运具备相似 的低增特征，需求端西芒杜铁矿投产、降息背景构成核心催化，市场有望继续复苏。3)集运：集运干线 市场需综合考虑增量供给、红海复航、及国际贸易摩擦等不确定性因素。亚洲区域内集运市场供需仍然 紧张，即期及期租市场均保持较高景气。 华创证券主要观点如下： 一、油运：增产+制裁+供给约束，驱动合规市场景气向上 25年下半年以来油运行业景气度进一步提升，8月VLCC运价淡季提前反弹，之后运价表现强劲，TD3C 航线11月13日录得12.6万美元/天，11月平均运价达10.4万美元/天，25Q4平均运价8.8万美元/天，即单日 值、月均值、季均值都超过了2022年以来的最高值。 该行看好此轮油运景气周期持续性：1)全球原油增产周期提振运输需求，25年4月开始OPEC+转向增产 周期，并在9月 ...

集运指数（欧线）：弱势震荡；02 观望，04 空单 持有 2025 年 11 月 26 日 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2512 | 1,779.7 | 0.69% | 1,541 | 6,862 | -461 | 0.22 | 0.27 | | | EC2602 | 1,568.6 | -0.54% | 17,415 | 43,333 | -100 | 0.40 | 0.66 | | | EC2604 | 1,142.1 | -0.45% | 1,676 | 16,096 | 135 | 0.10 | 0.17 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 637.6 | | | EC2602-EC2604 | | | 426.5 | | | | ...

以下文章来源于中粮期货研究中心 ，作者中粮期货研究中心 中粮期货研究中心 . 传递客观的市场信息 文 | 塔林夫 来源 | 中粮期货研究中心 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 航运业的强周期属性基本由下面的逻辑驱动：首先是需求爆发或者供给收缩带来上升和繁荣，船东在手握大量现金的同时为了攫取更多利 润便大量签下新船订单。而后随着需求高位触顶向下，供需走向宽松，且随着此前的运力订单不断交付叠加船舶作为运力供给本身难以短 时间出清，过剩状况便不断加剧，市场随之进入下行和萧条周期，为下一次行业出清和需求的抬升做准备。 因此，自2022年俄乌战争的爆发和美联储开启大幅度加息，全球需求开始萎缩，集运业也由此正式从2020-2021的繁荣中触顶回落，下 行周期开启。同时，美国在2025年的对等关税和全球各主要经济体右翼的上台使得全球化阶段性触顶继续抑制了需求的增长。尽管2024 年的红海危机导致的供给急剧收缩又掀起了一波小高潮，但这只是延缓了下行的速度甚至是萧条时期的到来，可以看到的2023-2024、 2027-2028的两轮新船交付高峰将进一步拉大供给与需求之间的差距，运力过剩程度和行业的不景气程度的加深难以避免 ...

陈茂波表示，香港拥有高度的国际联系，每日有超过1100班航班往返全球200多个目的地；营商环境优 越，让不少展览业界和国际盛事活动主办者都视香港为战略据点。去年，亚洲国际博览馆和香港会议展 览中心有超过350场活动，吸引超过900万人次参与。今年随着海内外的旅客增加，会展活动的成绩让人 有更大的期待。特区政府和业界在策划大型盛事活动时，也积极安排活动接连举行，以创造更大的联乘 效应和经济效益。 陈茂波发表网志表示，香港银行存款总额继去年上升7%后，今年进一步上升超过10%至逾19万亿港 元；新股集资活动领先全球、财富管理业界蓬勃发展、与世界各地的金融合作也持续深化，这些都反映 国际资金垂青香港市场。近来不少来港参会的国际金融领袖，都表示其机构正计划在港增聘人手、扩充 规模。 本报香港11月24日电(记者陈然)香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波23日表示，受地缘政治的影响，全球投 资者都重新评估其资产组合的风险，并调整投资策略、分散风险，香港成为资金避险的安全港。 在航运贸易方面，面对国际上单边主义崛起，全球供应链、产业链正加快重整，国家同东盟以至全球南 方的经贸关系也进一步深化。在此背景下，香港的商品出口不但未受关 ...

自11月18日以来公司已连续5日进行回购，合计回购2156.80万股，累计回购金额5618.66万港元。 其间 该股累计下跌7.35%。 今年以来该股累计进行40次回购，合计回购1.48亿股，累计回购金额3.04亿港元。（数据宝） 太平洋航运回购明细 证券时报·数据宝统计，太平洋航运在港交所公告显示，11月24日以每股2.540港元至2.600港元的价格回 购500.00万股，回购金额达1275.70万港元。该股当日收盘价2.520港元，下跌3.45%，全天成交额 4680.68万港元。 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.11.24 | 500.00 | 2.600 | 2.540 | 1275.70 | | 2025.11.21 | 800.00 | 2.630 | 2.600 | 2093.92 | | 2025.11.20 | 800.00 | 2.630 | 2.610 | 2099.66 | | 2025.11.19 | 45.80 | 2.630 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].