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中美政策博弈,人民币涨跌背后是什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 04:21
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is a result of the ongoing policy competition between China and the US, particularly in the context of interest rate adjustments and currency stabilization efforts [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in 2023, reaching a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%, which has caused significant fluctuations in global currency markets. However, the RMB has shown remarkable resilience due to targeted interventions by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) [3][4] - China has implemented measures such as lowering foreign exchange reserve requirements, restarting counter-cyclical factors, and issuing offshore central bank bills to stabilize the RMB, while maintaining an independent monetary policy that supports the real economy [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to the RMB exchange rate becoming a focal point of contention, with the US pressuring for RMB appreciation under the guise of promoting "fair trade," aiming to weaken China's export competitiveness [4][5] - In the context of the technology war, the depreciation of the RMB has reduced the cost of chip imports for China, alleviating some of the pressure from sanctions, showcasing a strategic response to external challenges [7] - The emergence of China's digital currency (DCEP) and its cross-border payment system is reshaping the financial landscape, potentially allowing transactions to bypass the USD settlement system, which could challenge US financial dominance [7]