我们再看看美联储加息的反面情况：美联储加息时确实会把一些美元资本吸引回去，中国就可能面临资本流出的压力（银联证研究，2016年报指出，美联储 加息给中国资本流出带来持续压力）（数据来源：中国银行间市场研究报告 2023年10月 指出美联储利率上升引发全球金融动荡，中国不可避免受到冲击） （数据来源：中银国际证券报告 2023年10月）。而且2016年这种资本骤然外流一度让中国资本和金融账户赤字飙到4千多亿美元（数据来源：ScienceDirect 报告，2016年资本外流造成4853亿美元逆差）（数据来源：ScienceDirect 2025年论文摘要）。这波并不是谁推谁的博弈，而是全球资本趋利避险自然反应。 再说美联储降息时，中国扶放水是不是直接等于能吸资本？降息后资本可能寻找更高回报，但大的潮汐波动反而可能增加市场不稳定性（新华网 2024年9月 指出，降息后全球资本快速流入流出，会加剧价格波动和投资风险）（数据来源：新华网 2024年9月）。 你问得美国降息那会儿，中国就可以大放水？这种想法，看上去很带劲，但事实复杂得多，我来聊聊我查到的内容，顺带把这个老师的观点扒一扒。我想就 像半夜刷手机看到这话，忍 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a state of oscillation. ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton. The macro - level is the main focus in the international market, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, but the supply - demand of US cotton in the new year is relatively loose. In the domestic market, the macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space but needs additional factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - The view on sugar is also oscillation. As of the end of July, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was generally weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and the reverse arbitrage can stop profit - taking. Wait for the guidance of raw sugar and the trading opportunity of the January contract's oversold rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton, and the main contract's position decreased by 11,604 hands to 292,400 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,169 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut probability is high, but US cotton supply - demand is loose. The domestic macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space and needs extra factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the end of July, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year, and the sales rate was 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. In July, the single - month sales volume was 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons. Spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and wait for raw sugar guidance and the January contract's trading opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 165, a decrease of 35; the main basis was 1514, an increase of 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,081 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan per ton, and the national spot price was 15,169 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 70, a decrease of 25 [3]. 3. Market Information - On August 5th, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,563, a decrease of 121 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 348 [4]. - On August 5th, the cotton arrival prices in Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were 15,081 yuan per ton, 15,184 yuan per ton, 15,135 yuan per ton, and 15,225 yuan per ton respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.4, an increase of 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.9, an increase of 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.7, a decrease of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,030 yuan per ton (unchanged) and 6,035 yuan per ton (a decrease of 20 yuan per ton) respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 19,260, a decrease of 113 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5].

Group 1: Monthly Performance of US Public Funds - In June 2025, US equity funds outperformed international equity funds, bond funds, and asset allocation funds, with median returns of 4.48%, 3.59%, 1.10%, and 3.32% respectively [1][7][9]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - In June 2025, the US fund market saw a net inflow of $696 billion into passive funds, while active funds experienced a net outflow of $231 billion [8][21]. - The total number of new funds established in June 2025 was 94, comprising 79 ETFs and 15 open-end funds, with 65 new equity funds, 21 bond funds, and 8 asset allocation funds [3][44]. Group 3: Insights from Leading Asset Management Firms - Key themes from leading asset management firms include the outlook on US macroeconomic conditions, stock market perspectives, and the impact of geopolitical events on inflation and investment strategies [4][46][49]. - Firms like PIMCO and Capital Group emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio amid economic uncertainties and market volatility [49][50].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has led to a reassessment of the interest rate cut timeline, boosting demand for the US dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, which are currently trading below $3,290 [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has risen for the seventh consecutive day, reaching a new high since late May, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - The June PCE price index in the US increased to 2.6% year-on-year, with the core index stable at 2.8%, exceeding market expectations and reinforcing the view of persistent inflation [2]. - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [2]. Market Sentiment - President Trump's recent executive order imposing tariffs of 10% to 41% on imports from several trade partners, including Asian countries, has heightened global trade concerns and increased market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [2]. - If non-farm employment numbers exceed 100,000, it may indicate a robust labor market, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize inflation control, which would support the dollar [2]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a downward trend, with expectations of further declines towards $3,200 or $3,000, despite not breaking below the mid-line support [4]. - A significant resistance area exists around the 21-day and 50-day moving averages near $3,340, and gold must break through the psychological level of $3,300 for any recovery attempts [5]. - If gold closes below the critical support level of $3,270 per ounce, a new downward trend may emerge, potentially leading to a drop towards the June 30 low of $3,248 per ounce [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with no guidance on a potential rate cut in September [1] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, primarily due to reduced consumer spending and weak exports, although business investment, particularly in equipment and intangible assets, has increased [3] - The housing market remains weak, with a long-term shortage in housing supply and insufficient construction rates [3] Employment Market - Powell expressed an optimistic view on the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is still outpacing inflation, providing support for consumption and economic stability [4] - There are no clear signs of weakness in the job market, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to rush into rate cuts [4] Inflation Concerns - Powell stated that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target is more than halfway complete, with service inflation slowing but goods inflation rising [6] - As of June, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7% [6] - Tariffs are identified as a new variable affecting inflation, with some goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs, leading to a slight increase in market inflation expectations [6] Tariff Details - Powell elaborated on tariffs, indicating that their impact on prices is slower than previously anticipated, and the current inflation data reflects only the beginning of tariff-induced inflation [7] - He emphasized the challenge of isolating the effects of tariffs from overall price changes, as prices are a composite result [7] - The Fed aims to ensure that price increases due to tariffs do not evolve into persistent inflation, balancing the timing of their actions to avoid unnecessary harm to the job market [7] Future Guidance - The Fed has not provided strong signals for the market, neither committing to a September rate cut nor closing the door on future cuts, opting instead to observe incoming data [10] - Powell highlighted the importance of upcoming data releases in determining the Fed's next steps, including inflation trends, the ongoing impact of tariffs, and labor market resilience [10] - The market is advised to remain patient and await clearer signals before making assumptions about potential rate cuts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]