Kevin Hanks joins me. He's live at the CVOE. We always have our pre-bell playbook chat.Um, say that three times fast. Kevin Hanks, um, you know, futures are higher this morning. I feel like this week can be so every moment could be a market moving event.Tell me a little bit about what's on your mind here. >> Good morning, Nicole. You know, similar to last week, there doesn't seem to be a lot to get in the way of this market right now.But the minute we said that, Jerome Pal made some comments that put kind o ...

Ask Wharton School professor of finance and wisdom chief economist Jeremy Seagull. Uh, Professor Seagull, what was your take on on the report today. Obviously came in line as expected, but year-over-year inflation at the headline up 2.9% still above the Fed's target rate.>> Yeah, most certainly. But but the news was good. It hit all the targets.Uh, nothing no upside uh surprise and and yesterday strong strong economic data. I think that uh both on the the trade deficit going down and on the durable goods re ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]

国会里头，共和党和民主党天天为支出问题吵得不可开交，共和党坚持要削减福利开支，民主党则死守基础设施投资。结果呢，政策推进老是卡壳。 耶伦作为财政部长，一遍遍写信给国会，强调必须马上行动，不然违约风险就大了。国会预算办公室的数据显示，那年利息支出高达6590亿美元，创了纪 录。 主要原因就是疫情后的刺激计划加上对乌克兰的军事援助，花钱如流水。国会好几次通过临时法案推迟上限调整，5月底终于通过法案，把上限暂停到2025 年1月1日。 耶伦负责管理国债发行，季度拍卖规模一再创新高。美联储主席鲍威尔那边配合货币政策，7月26日又加息25个基点，把联邦基金利率推到5.25%到5.5%的 区间。 这是从2022年3月开始的第11次加息，主要为了压住通胀。鲍威尔在记者会上说，这基于就业数据和物价指数。美元指数跟着走强，全球资金往美国回流。 新兴市场国家压力山大，资本外流，货币贬值。 美国国债这事儿，说起来真是让人捏把汗。2023年年初，美国国债规模就已经碰到了31.4万亿美元的天花板，财政部只能靠临时措施勉强维持运转。 耶伦监督执行，调整国债发行计划。加息影响全球贸易，美国出口竞争力弱。耶伦和国际同行通电话，讨论汇率波动。 ...

就在刚刚 川普现在很慌！ 全世界都在等美联储今天宣布降息！ 但有没有可能，鲍威尔今天来一句， "hellow everyone"，加息呢？ 想想 看，白宫最近的戏码比美剧还精彩。特朗普前脚刚在社交平台骂鲍威尔是"灾难"，后脚就被法院泼了冷水——他想解雇美联储理事库克的 请求被驳回了 。 这已经不是第一次了，从年初嚷嚷着要"大幅降息"到现在，特朗普的焦虑简直要溢出屏幕。毕竟8月失业率已经涨到 4.3%，创四年新高，股市更是像坐过山车一样上蹿下跳，谁能不慌？ 但更戏剧性的是，市场对降息的押注越高，鲍威尔的压力反而越 大。你猜怎么着？最新CME数据显示，虽然9月降息25个基点的概率高达96.4%，但仍有3.6%的概率直接加息50个基点。 这种"黑天鹅"可 能性，就像悬在特朗普头上的达摩克利斯之剑。要知道，特朗普刚在9月5日签署了新关税令，对进口商品大范围加税 ，这波操作大概率会 推高通胀——而通胀一旦失控，鲍威尔完全有理由反手一个加息，让特朗普的如意算盘落空。 其实美联储内部早就暗流涌动。7月会议 上，两名特朗普任命的理事罕见投了反对票，要求立即降息。但多数官员更担心关税引发的通胀风险，毕竟核心PCE已经逼近3%， ...

Next guest warns the Fed may disappoint Wall Street when that meeting happens in about 20 hours or so. Subadra Rajapa is ahead of US race for associate general. Subra, great to have you with us.Um there does seem to be a lot of expectation built into at least 75 basis points through the end of the year. So is that where the disappointment may lie. >> Yeah, it's not just the 75 basis points up to the end of the year.You're also looking at a total of six cuts by the end of next year and the terminal Fed funds ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact global financial markets, influencing assets like gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Hikes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the market immediately feels the tightening effect [4]. - Gold, despite being a "safe-haven asset," loses attractiveness in a high-interest environment due to increased opportunity costs [5]. - Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates, as rate hikes compress their high valuation logic [5]. - Bitcoin, viewed as a "liquidity darling," tends to weaken during rate hike cycles [5]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - Conversely, interest rate cuts are perceived as a signal of "releasing liquidity," leading to lower borrowing costs and increased market inflows [5]. - Gold benefits from lower real interest rates, typically resulting in price increases [5]. - Rising interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs, constraining corporate financing and consumer spending [5]. - A stronger dollar results in capital flowing back to the U.S., tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - A recovering stock market, especially growth stocks, may experience rapid rebounds during rate cuts [6]. - The cryptocurrency market becomes more active, with high-risk, high-volatility assets regaining popularity [6]. - Market participants often focus more on future interest rate paths rather than just the announced results, leading to preemptive market movements [8]. - The disparity between market expectations and actual outcomes can lead to significant volatility upon data releases [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in foreign investment in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a significant outflow of capital from regions like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, amidst concerns over economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies [3][5][7]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In Q2 2025, foreign investors had a net sell-off of approximately $80 billion in the U.S. stock market, indicating a clear trend of capital outflow from regions such as China, Hong Kong, and Singapore [3]. - China's net outward foreign direct investment was about $170 billion in 2024, while foreign direct investment inflows were steadily recovering, suggesting that global capital flows are not completely collapsing but external risks are accumulating [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's dot plot from June 2025 indicates that there is still a strong likelihood of at least one or two more interest rate hikes, which may deter foreign capital from returning to the U.S. market [5]. - In June 2025, the UK's CPI annual rate reached 7.9%, and Germany's industrial output fell by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting broader economic challenges in Europe [5]. Group 3: Market Valuations and Risks - The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 technology sector has surged to nearly 28 times, raising concerns about overvaluation [9]. - In June 2025, new housing starts in the U.S. decreased by 12% year-on-year, and mortgage applications continued to decline, indicating weakness in the real estate market [9]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article suggests that any potential capital inflow from foreign investors may be cautious and gradual, rather than a full-scale recovery, as indicated by Singapore's sovereign wealth fund's slight increase in U.S. equity allocation, which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels [11]. - The inverted yield curve in the U.S. bond market persists, with short-term yields remaining high, signaling that risk appetite among investors is still contracting [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have made it a focal point for investors seeking stability amidst market volatility, with ongoing discussions about whether to buy or wait for lower prices [4][6][7] Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced significant volatility, with a drop from 779 to 775, influenced by expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve due to strong U.S. economic data [4] - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when the U.S. economy is strong and the dollar appreciates, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [4] - Long-term trends indicate that while gold may face short-term pressures from a strong dollar and interest rate changes, it remains a stable investment choice for global investors, especially during economic slowdowns [4][6] Investor Sentiment - Many small investors view current price dips as potential buying opportunities, believing that gold will not drop significantly lower [6] - The perception of gold as a stable asset is reinforced by its relatively mild price fluctuations compared to historical financial crises, making it an appealing option for risk-averse investors [6] Conclusion - The ongoing debate among investors about the timing of gold purchases reflects broader concerns about market stability and the desire for a reliable investment amid uncertainty [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise regardless of whether the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are seen as politically influenced, but a rate cut is anticipated, which would benefit the stock market and commodities like gold [1]. - Historical trends show that gold has consistently risen during periods of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and even during rate hikes, gold prices have not significantly declined due to central bank purchases [1][2]. Group 2 - Recent market movements indicate that gold has shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend, with a notable price increase from approximately 3320 to 3378 [2][4]. - The analysis suggests that while gold is in a strong position, the pace of its rise may slow down, and there are significant resistance levels to watch, particularly around 3380 [5]. - Short-term trading strategies should avoid short positions in gold, as there is potential for further upward movement, contingent on market sentiment and large capital flows [5].