Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trend in gold prices, attributing it to geopolitical tensions and changing market perceptions regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices began to stabilize and rise from March 27, following a period of pressure due to military actions in the Middle East [2]. - Initial declines in gold prices were driven by liquidity issues, including margin calls and the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven compared to gold [2]. - As the expectation of prolonged conflict in the Middle East grows, the market is shifting towards viewing gold as a "ultimate safe haven" asset [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [2]. - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy due to prolonged conflict could further support gold prices [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies - The market previously misjudged the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which requires specific economic conditions to be met [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a series of interest rate hikes starting in March 2022, aimed to combat high inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [3]. - In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite energy shocks from the Middle East, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, which may lead the market to price in potential rate cuts this year, providing further support for gold [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract weakened with a reduction in positions. The Fed Chair's statement eased market concerns about interest rate hikes, and traders considered the possibility of rate cuts this year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction. However, due to Trump's statement, oil prices fell, leading to a general decline in commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 808.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 353,624 hands, down 17,797 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 784 hands, up 6,329 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,700.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.45 US dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 742 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 20 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 108.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.16, down 0.04. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25.00 days, up 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.62%, down 0.67%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.21 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.98 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, up 1.10%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.67%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 19.32%, down 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.74%, down 2.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. Australian shipments were 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. Brazilian shipments were 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield at 4.321%, reflecting investor reassessment of Federal Reserve interest rates amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The U.S.-Iran conflict is impacting global investor sentiment, with rising oil prices contributing to inflation concerns and recession fears, complicating the monetary policy outlook [2][4] - Money markets are currently pricing in no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, with a brief spike in the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation expectations remain stable despite rising energy prices, suggesting no immediate need for higher interest rates [3] - The U.S. Secretary of State stated that objectives in Iran would take "weeks, not months" to achieve, indicating a potentially prolonged geopolitical situation that could affect market dynamics [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries, with energy metals up 13.38% and industrial metals up 1.37% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic [28][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals and small metals performed well, while precious metals faced declines [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][2] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%) and SHFE tin to ¥362,460 per ton (up 5.83%) due to improved downstream demand [45] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell slightly, with COMEX gold at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations [48][4] - The Turkish central bank sold 58.4 tons of gold, impacting market stability [48] - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries. The energy metals sector surged by 13.38%, while precious metals declined by 2.33% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic in the market [27][28] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals saw the highest increase, followed by small metals and industrial metals, while precious metals faced a decline [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][27] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%), driven by improved downstream demand as prices fell [45] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%), and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, with significant gold sales by the Turkish central bank adding to price pressure [48][4] - The recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints -受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者需控制仓位、防控风险 [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX黄金期货涨0.36%，报4540.40美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨0.55%，报70.18美元/盎司；沪金主力合约上涨0.6%，报1011.48元/克；沪银主力合约上涨0.86%，报17679元/千克 [1] Important Information - 3月30日，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上个交易日减少3.429吨，当前持仓量为1046.133吨；全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少121.1吨，当前持仓量为15288.36吨 [1] - 据CME“美联储观察”，美联储4月加息25个基点的概率为2.6%，维持利率不变的概率为97.4%；到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为92.5%，累计加息25个基点的概率为2.5% [1] - 美联储主席鲍威尔讲话称能源冲击通常是短暂的，央行应“耐心等待其自行消退”，政策目前处于有利地位，可等待观察形势发展，私人信贷目前不具备演变为更广泛系统性事件的条件 [1] - 伊朗议会批准对海峡征收通行费，需以伊朗本币支付；以色列海法的炼油厂在导弹袭击中起火，特朗普称回应“很快到来”，正与伊朗进行严肃谈判，若谈判破裂将摧毁伊能源、电力设施和哈尔克岛；伊朗方面称美国要求不合逻辑，不参加巴基斯坦主导的有关战争的会议 [1] Market Logic - 美伊紧张局势持续，特朗普就停火向伊朗发出新威胁，伊方拒绝巴基斯坦斡旋的与美对话；周一国际原油价格继续上涨，NASDAQ指数继续下跌；因鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，美债收益率下行，2年期美债收益率下跌约9个基点收报3.83%；周一美元指数上涨0.33%，收于100.51；周一黄金COMEX和白银均冲高回落，收盘较上周五小幅上涨；近日美国流露出和谈意向，但美伊双方立场差别巨大，未来演变需持续关注 [1] Trading Strategy - 受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market volatility may remain at a high level. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are currently difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum long positions on dips. The London platinum should pay attention to the support level of $1800 per ounce, and the London palladium should focus on the support level of $1300 per ounce [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 497.50 yuan/gram, up 12.90 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 357.30 yuan/gram, up 2.15 yuan. The main contract position of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands, while that of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 489.65 yuan/gram, up 12.61 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 329.00 yuan/gram, down 2.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 0.29 yuan/gram, and that of the palladium main contract decreased by 4.15 yuan/gram to - 28.30 yuan/gram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00 to 3003.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5.00 tons to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 tons to 261.60 tons, while that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27.00 tons to 287.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.28 to 100.18, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.05 percentage points to 2.13%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 3.61 to 31.05 [2] Industry News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict is intense and stalemated. The US plans a ground operation in Iran, and the number of US troops in the Middle East exceeds 50,000. Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession, with Moody's model showing a 48.6% probability in the next 12 months and Goldman Sachs raising it to 30%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory at the end of the year may drop to 2.613 million ounces. The medium - term supply of platinum remains tight. The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts, and its structure is relatively single [2] Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significantly affected global risk preferences. It has led to inflation concerns, changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations, and fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets [2][4]. - Different industries are affected differently by the conflict. Energy - related industries are generally strong, while sectors related to liquidity and global macroeconomics, such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals, are under pressure. The black sector may face relatively lower pressure due to the retreat of funds from the long - non - ferrous and short - black strategy [36][43]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: Tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on US - related military and industrial enterprises and an aluminum company, and corporate cooperation news. 150 securities companies had significant year - on - year growth in revenue and net profit in 2025 [2]. - **Strategy**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. Inflation concerns lead to changes in Fed's interest - rate expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes. Industrial enterprise profits increased in January - February. There are expectations of a Fed rate hike. The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy**: Economic data improved at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of economic recovery is uncertain. Inflation pressure may put the bond market under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6][7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends. There are political events in the US and the Middle East, and the energy market is under threat [8]. - **Strategy**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus. Inflation expectations are sticky, and the short - term trend of precious metals is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated due to the Middle - East situation. LME and domestic inventories had different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation suppresses copper prices, but inventory reduction and raw material supply changes may support prices. Copper prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose due to energy cost increases. Inventory and basis had changes [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are supported by energy costs and supply disruptions but are also affected by sentiment. It is expected to rise in the short term [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Inventory and basis data changed. Downstream enterprises replenished stocks after price declines [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may stop falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchasing sustainability is limited. Zinc prices are in a downward trend and may continue to decline after consolidation [15]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. Inventory and basis data changed. Social inventory decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is supported in the short term, but the high Shanghai - London ratio may lead to more imports. There is a possibility of further price decline [17]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices were stable [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, nickel prices may weaken, but in the medium term, there is strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [19]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends, and inventory decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply is still constrained, and demand is in a weak recovery. Tin prices are expected to be weak, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There were changes in inventory and raw material prices [22]. - **Strategy**: The market contradiction is in the resource end. The supply may be under pressure in the long term, and demand is expected to be strong. Pay attention to market changes, with a reference price range [23]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and raw material prices [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to rise, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range [25]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Inventory increased, and raw material prices were stable [26]. - **Strategy**: Supply is stable, and terminal consumption is slightly better than expected. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, with a reference price range [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Cost and demand are expected to improve, and prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [29]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Steel prices were slightly lower. Inventory and trading volume changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate demand support is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to demand release and raw material price changes [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Inventory and basis data changed [32]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and risk control is needed [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fell slightly. There were changes in spot and futures prices and basis [34]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals do not support a significant price rebound. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see, and be optimistic about coking coal prices in the medium - long term [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [38][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. Soda ash is in a game between supply and demand, with reference price ranges [39][40]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. There were changes in spot and futures prices and basis [41]. - **Strategy**: The black sector may be supported. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a shock state. Polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The butadiene market is strong, and natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. There are changes in tire enterprise operating rates and inventory [50][51]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade short - term, take profit on butadiene rubber call options, and hold the hedging position [52]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices rose [53]. - **Strategy**: Configure short - position strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil types, and short - sell high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads and INE - Brent spreads [54]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose, and MTO profits changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and widen MTO profits at low prices [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices had slight changes, and the basis was reported [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell urea. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: There were changes in prices, basis, and inventory of pure benzene and styrene [59]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and it is recommended to wait and see [60]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. There were changes in cost, inventory, and operating rates [61]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rise, but pay attention to risks [62]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. There were changes in supply, demand, and inventory [63]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks after a large increase [65]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. There were changes in load, inventory, and processing fees [66]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and pay attention to risks after a large increase [67]. - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. There were changes in load, inventory, and valuation [68]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks after a large increase [69]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. There were changes in inventory and operating rates [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz increases [71]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. There were changes in inventory and operating rates [72]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production and demand mismatches [73]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices had different trends in different regions. Some areas had price increases, and some had decreases [75]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side improvement is limited. Consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to profit - taking when the position is large [76]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices had different trends in different regions. Some areas had price increases, and some had decreases [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply is sufficient, but small - sized eggs are in short supply. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and hold short positions for the far - term [78]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: There are news about Trump's visit to China, soybean export data, and production forecasts [79]. - **Strategy**: The price fluctuation is large, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [80]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: There are policies and data related to biofuels, palm oil production, and inventory [81]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to rise in the medium - term due to the Iran - US event [82]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: There are forecasts of sugar production and export in different countries, and import data in China [83]. - **Strategy**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: There are news about Trump's visit to China, cotton import data, and production forecasts [85]. - **Strategy**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, but pay attention to the risk of a global financial crisis [86].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term decline in U.S. Treasury yields that has lasted for 40 years has ended, and the massive debt burden is pushing the economy towards an unsustainable edge, with risks of a liquidity disaster similar to the 2006 subprime crisis [1][4][5] Group 1: Economic Environment and Interest Rates - The current financial environment is accumulating significant risks, with a warning against the consensus expectation of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][7] - Gundlach argues that the Federal Reserve is a follower of the two-year Treasury yield rather than a leader, suggesting that interest rates will not decrease as long as the two-year yield remains high [7][42] - The prediction is that if oil prices remain high, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates instead of cutting them [8] Group 2: Private Credit Market Risks - Gundlach draws parallels between the current private credit market, estimated at $2-3 trillion, and the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a potential liquidity disaster [9][30] - He highlights the opacity in valuations within the private credit market, where different managers may hold identical positions but report vastly different valuations [9][30] - The fundamental mismatch in private credit, where illiquid assets are packaged for investors needing regular redemptions, is expected to lead to significant market turmoil [9][30] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Gundlach recommends a radical shift in asset allocation, advising investors to completely divest from U.S. stocks and instead invest 40% in non-U.S. equities, particularly emerging markets [10][29] - He suggests allocating 25% to short-term fixed income, 15% to commodities (10% in a commodity index and 5% in gold), and holding 20% in cash to wait for better entry points in the market [11][12][29] - The emphasis is on capital preservation in a changing investment landscape, moving away from speculative assets [10][29] Group 4: U.S. Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $39 trillion, with Gundlach warning that crossing the $40 trillion mark could trigger a psychological threshold for investors [13][24] - He predicts that in the next recession, long-term Treasury yields will rise rather than fall due to expanding deficits, contradicting traditional expectations [14][24] - Gundlach raises the possibility of a "soft default" or restructuring of U.S. Treasury securities, where the government may forcibly modify bond terms to reduce interest payments [15][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation, focusing on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the implications of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market is speculating on a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, but this remains a low-probability event due to insufficient conditions for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the 1970s [2]. - The Federal Reserve's current policy is to maintain interest rates, with "not lowering rates" being viewed as a baseline, while monitoring the negative feedback from tightening financial conditions [7]. Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, could lead to a temporary stagflation, but a recession is more likely for the U.S. economy if these tensions escalate [3]. - A peak in oil prices may serve as a precursor for the return of interest rate cut expectations, indicating that the Fed may choose to remain unchanged in its policy until necessary adjustments are warranted [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The article highlights that the market is closely watching the Middle East situation, as easing tensions could contribute to stabilizing oil prices, which in turn affects financial and economic conditions [4]. - Recent data shows that U.S. industrial enterprises reported a cumulative revenue growth of 5.3% year-on-year and a profit increase of 15.2% for January-February 2026, indicating a strong start to the year [12].