Group 1: China Trade Data - In October, China's trade surplus was $90.07 billion, lower than the previous value of $90.45 billion and below the market expectation of $95.6 billion [1] - Exports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.0%, while imports grew by 1.0%, significantly down from September's 7.4% and below the expected 3.2% [1] - The simultaneous slowdown in export and import growth, along with a narrowing trade surplus, puts pressure on the New Zealand dollar, as China is a key trading partner for New Zealand [1] Group 2: New Zealand Economic Indicators - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q3, the highest level since 2016, indicating a weakening job market [1] - The softening employment market has increased expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to potentially cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting to support economic growth [1] - The interest rate cut expectations add further pressure on the New Zealand dollar, making it difficult for the currency to break through key resistance levels [1] Group 3: US Labor Market and Interest Rate Expectations - In the US, Challenger job cuts data for October showed over 150,000 layoffs, marking the largest decline for that month in nearly 20 years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - This has led some investors to increase bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in the next meeting rising to 70% from 62% the previous day [2] - While this creates short-term pressure on the US dollar, it remains a key global safe-haven currency, which will indirectly affect the performance of the New Zealand dollar [2] Group 4: Market Reactions - The NZD/USD pair is under pressure around 0.5620, with market participants noting the narrowing trade surplus from China and the weak employment market in New Zealand [3] - Investors are also focused on the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index release [3]